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Odds Outlook: Xander Schauffele favored as Brooks Koepka makes PGA TOUR return at Farmers Insurance Open

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Xander Schauffele makes his season debut after winning the Baycurrent Classic in his last start on TOUR

Xander Schauffele makes his season debut after winning the Baycurrent Classic in his last start on TOUR

    Written by Mike Glasscott

    Brooks Koepka is back on the PGA TOUR this week, but not as the betting favorite at the Farmers Insurance Open.

    Koepka will make his first start on TOUR outside the majors since 2022 this week at Torrey Pines, where he’ll be looking up at hometown favorite Xander Schauffele (+1400) among several other top names on the odds board. Schauffele, a San Diego native, is the man to beat according to oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook, while Koepka is listed at +5500.

    At No. 6 in the world, Schauffele is the highest-ranked player in the 145-man field as he looks to build on the momentum from his Baycurrent Classic victory in the fall in Japan. His closest pursuer on the odds board is Ludvig Åberg (+1700), who won last year at Torrey but withdrew last week from The American Express due to illness. Åberg’s win came in The Genesis Invitational, which was relocated after wildfires forced the event from its usual home at Riviera. When healthy, he has not finished outside the top 23 worldwide since the Travelers Championship in June.

    Making his season debut, Cameron Young (+1900) did not want the back half of 2025 to end. The power player finally cracked the code in August at the Wyndham Championship for his first victory on TOUR. His proficiency for racking up top-10 paydays, with eight total in 2025, continued last fall with a T9 at the Procore Championship and concluded his season with a solo 10th-place result at the Hero World Challenge. With plenty of pop off the tee, and a top-10 Strokes Gained: Putting ranking (No. 7), he should be comfortable in his fourth visit.

    One of the four players to share second at The American Express, Jason Day (+2500), arrives with momentum at Torrey Pines. One of a pair of two-time winners in the field, the Australian knows the formula to tackle the South Course. Smashing it from tee to green, navigating four inches plus of overseeded Rye grass, and keeping his nerve on the bumpy Poa annua greens has led to seven top-10 paydays from 11 weekend attempts. Whatever rust he carried over from the holidays was busted immediately in La Quinta. He led the field in SG: Putting and was second in SG: Around the Green.


    Jason Day pours in 39-foot birdie putt on No. 15 at The American Express

    Jason Day pours in 39-foot birdie putt on No. 15 at The American Express


    Long Beach native Patrick Cantlay (+2500) tees it up at the Farmers Insurance Open for just the second time since 2019. In four previous visits, he made the cut twice, and a T51 is the biggest check he pocketed. Sharps will point out that he earned his best two results at Torrey Pines when the South Course was used during all four rounds. He cashed T15 at the U.S. Open in 2021 and T5 at The Genesis Invitational in 2025, including playing his final 54 holes in 10-under. He made his annual stop to the ATM in the Coachella Valley last week, earning T13 money and leading the field in Scrambling. Yep, he is still looking for his first victory since the 2022 BMW Championship. This is a recording until it is not.

    The 54-hole leader last weekend, Si Woo Kim (+2500), will not have to worry about holding off world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler if he is in the same position this weekend at Torrey Pines. Kim, who was second in Proximity on the Stadium Course, will need that iron play to carry over to the South Course, where he is searching for his first top 10 result. Investors will note his T6 payday in La Quinta was his fourth consecutive T11 or better result in his last four results worldwide. Get hot, stay hot.

    Keegan Bradley (+2500) played the weekend in eight straight at the Farmers Insurance Open and earned T16 or better five times, including second place in 2023. His ability to pound fairways and greens, a skill set that never gets anyone in trouble around here, keeps him coming back for more. He makes start No. 14 in the last 15 events (missed 2021) and sits No. 10 on the all-time money list.

    Another stud from tee to green is Californian J.J. Spaun (+2500). Like Schauffele, he is an alum of San Diego St and more than familiar with the two courses in play. He opened and closed with 66 at the Sony Open in Hawaii for T40 to begin his 2026 season. A productive autumn saw him earn a sixth-place payday at the Procore Championship, T11 at the Worldwide Technology Championship, and T4 at the Hero World Challenge.

    The defending champion, Harris English (+2700), has an affinity for Torrey Pines. Placing third at the 2021 U.S. Open, he also ran second in a four-man playoff to Day in 2015 and owns three top-10 results from nine weekends. He became the sixth consecutive winner at the Farmers Insurance Open to rank in the top 10 in SG: Putting. The five-time winner on TOUR came second in two majors last year, including the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, another massive track. Earning T27 last week, he produced four rounds of 70 or better.

    Hideki Matsuyama (+2700) makes his 13th consecutive appearance and cashed in nine straight and 10 of 12. The Japanese star prefers The Riviera Country Club, where he won The Genesis Invitational in 2024, but owns five paydays of T16 or better down the coast. His incredible short game proficiency allows him to grind it out when his driver and irons are not cooperating. He closed 2025 by winning the Hero World Challenge and opened 2026 with a paycheck for T13 at the Sony Open in Hawaii.

    Sony Open in Hawaii winner Chris Gotterup (+3000) returns to action at Torrey Pines, where he’s 2-for-2, after not entering The American Express. He is joined by Maverick McNealy (+3000), who is making his 2026 season debut. The Californian, who was runner-up at The Genesis Invitational in 2025 to Ludvig Åberg, never encroached the top 10 in seven previous starts before falling one shot short of forcing a playoff versus the Swede.

    This week, many eyes will be on Koepka (+5500) as he returns to the TOUR after a nearly four-year absence. In five career starts at Torrey Pines, he finished T4 at the 2021 U.S. Open but has missed the cut in three of four prior appearances across the two-course rotation for this event.

    Here's a look at the odds for other notable players in the field, with odds via FanDuel:

    • +3500: Ryan Gerard, Alex Noren
    • +4000: Rasmus Højgaard, Will Zalatoris, Jake Knapp, Wyndham Clark, Taylor Pendrith, Adam Scott
    • +4500: Max Homa, Sam Stevens, Michael Thorbjorsen, Aaron Rai
    • +5000: Justin Rose, Marco Penge
    • +5500: Davis Thompson, Akshay Bhatia, Garrick Higgo, Denny McCarthy, Max Greyserman, Thorbjørn Olesen, Rasmus Neergaard Petersen
    • +6000: Patrick Rodgers, Pierceson Coody, Nicolai Højgaard
    • +7000: Kevin Yu, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Rico Hoey
    • +7500: Andrew Novak, Keith Mitchell, Michael Kim
    • +8000: Jordan Spieth, Haotong Li, Kristoffer Reitan, Matt Wallace, Sahith Theegala

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