Odds Outlook: Scottie Scheffler clear betting favorite, chases third WM Phoenix Open title
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After three weeks of tournaments around California, the PGA TOUR and a field of 132 head to “The People’s Open” for the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale, with a familiar name topping the odds board.
Two-time champion Scottie Scheffler (+300) is perched in his usual place on top in the eyes of oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook. The reigning PGA TOUR Player of the Year made his season debut last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and shared ninth place. Picking up where he left off, he led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green but was rusty around the Poa annua of Pebble Beach. Squaring only five bogeys, the rust quickly dissipated. The last four editions at the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale have produced two wins, a T3 and a T7, and he’s No. 1 on the all-time money list for the event.
The prevalent theme for the top selections this week is horses for courses. The Sonoran Desert in the Phoenix suburbs has resulted in eight paychecks of T17 or better from 10 career starts – including four of the last six inside the top 10 – for Justin Thomas (+1100). Finishing second at The American Express, he produced his best result from his three 2025 starts in the California desert of La Quinta. Although he cashed T48 last week, he led the field in Putts per Green in Regulation. The desert sun should warm up his tee-to-green game.
Two-time champion Hideki Matsuyama (+1600) opened his account at the WM Phoenix Open in 2014, cashing a T4 finish. The following three seasons, he finished second by a shot and then won back-to-back in two consecutive playoff finishes. After opening the season by blistering The Plantation Course at Kapalua to the tune of 35 under, he added a T16 at the Sony Open in Hawaii before cooling off the last two weeks. Tee-to-green numbers are important this week, and the former Masters champion ranked third during the 2024 season.

Hideki Matsuyama breaks scoring record en route to win at The Sentry
Sungjae Im (+2000) makes his fifth start of 2025 and already has a pair of top-four paydays for his work. In 16 rounds, he’s posted 15 at par or better, so any rust from the holidays did not carry over to 2025. One of the top players gaining strokes off the tee, the South Korean should not have to worry extensively about the strategically placed bunkers off the tee or the three inches of rough framing the fairways. Never missing the weekend in five visits, he owns two paychecks inside the top 10, including a T6 in 2023.
One of Scheffler’s closest friends on TOUR, Sam Burns (+2800), is working his way to catching the world No. 1 at TPC Scottsdale. After missing the cut in three of his first four starts, the five-time winner on TOUR posted an aggregate of 29-under par over his last two events and cashed T6 in 2023 and T3 in 2024. The new father has posted rounds of 64 in the last two seasons and is starting to figure it out in the desert. Making his third start this year, he collected T8 at The Sentry and T22 last week at Pebble Beach.
After finishing second by two shots to Scheffler in the 2023 tournament, Nick Taylor (+7000) won the 2024 event in a playoff over Charley Hoffman (+10000). The Canadian, who matched the course record with 60 in the first round, also set the post-2014 renovation tournament scoring record (21-under) with Hoffman.
Rory McIlroy, the winner at Pebble Beach last week, is not in the field, but 2025 tournament winners Matsuyama, Taylor and Sepp Straka (+4500) are all competing.
Past champions teeing it up include 2020 Webb Simpson (+25000), 2019 Rickie Fowler (+8000) and 2018 Gary Woodland (+11000).
Here's a look at the odds for the rest of the field, via FanDuel:
- +3500: Corey Conners, Tom Kim
- +4000: Byeong Hun An
- +4500: Sahith Theegala
- +5000: Rasmus Højgaard
- +5500: Jordan Spieth, Kurt Kitayama
- +6000: Akshay Bhatia, Max Greyserman
- +6500: Matt Fitzpatrick
- +7000: Wyndham Clark, J.T. Poston, Beau Hossler, Cameron Young, Min Woo Lee, Davis Thompson, Maverick McNealy
- +7500: Harry Hall, Max Homa
- +8000: Keith Mitchell, Si Woo Kim, Sam Stevens
- +9000: Thomas Detry, Denny McCarthy, Tom Hoge, Billy Horschel, Andrew Novak
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