From 89 to one: A step-by-step guide to identifying the Masters winner
5 Min Read
Xander Schauffele finished T10 in the 2023 Masters. (Getty Images)
Masters week has begun and so many storylines abound. Will the shortest betting favorite since Tiger Woods (in Scottie Scheffler) destroy the field? Will Woods himself contend? Can Rory McIlroy nab a career Grand Slam? Can Jordan Spieth find his Augusta magic? Can Wyndham Clark rebound from his PLAYERS near-miss on Masters debut?
Golfbet and others will spend this week tipping you into a myriad of potential market winners, but I’m going to start by giving you 88 losers. Don’t laugh… we went through this process of elimination a year ago and arrived at the eventual champion in Jon Rahm. The trends of recent Masters winners are strong indicators for who will slip on the green jacket next.
So without further ado…
From 89 to 88
Step 1: The betting favorite hasn’t won in 19 years. Drama from the beginning as we haven’t had this short of a Masters favorite since Tiger Woods was +350 in 2013 (he finished T4), but world No.1 Scottie Scheffler, at +400, is gone right off the bat! He filled this slot a year ago as well and, as we know, did not defend his 2022 green jacket. The last favorite to win was Woods in 2005.
- Eliminated: Scottie Scheffler.
From 88 to 68
Step 2: A Masters debutant hasn’t won since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. This could be one of the best debutant classes at Augusta National in some time, led by U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark and European Ryder Cup star Ludvig Åberg, but history shows they’ll need at least one year’s worth of experience to fully figure out this place.
- Eliminated: Ludvig Åberg, Akshay Bhatia, Wyndham Clark, Eric Cole, Santiago de la Fuente, Nick Dunlap, Austin Eckroat, Ryo Hisatsune, Lee Hodges, Nicolai Højgaard, Stephan Jaeger, Jake Knapp, Christo Lamprecht, Peter Malnati, Denny McCarthy, Grayson Murray, Matthieu Pavon, Adam Schenk, Neal Shipley, Jasper Stubbs.
From 68 to 63
Step 3: No one over age 50 has won the Masters. Having the former champions is a great tradition at Augusta National and we seemingly always have one of them in the mix at some stage, but the older brigade ultimately comes up short over the course of four rounds.
- Eliminated: Fred Couples, Mike Weir, Vijay Singh, Jose Maria Olazabal, Phil Mickelson.
From 63 to 50
Step 4: No player from Austria, Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Ireland, Korea, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Norway or Poland has won the Masters. Carrying your own dreams and expectations at the Masters can be hard enough. Adding an entire nation’s hopes on your shoulders makes it even tougher. While Hideki Matsuyama (Japan) and Adam Scott (Australia) added their countries to the honor roll in the last 11 years, they are exceptions to the rule. (Sorry, Rory!)
- Eliminated: Sepp Straka, Joaquin Niemann, Camilo Villegas, Thorbjorn Olesen, Shane Lowry, Byeong Hun An, Sungjae Im, Si Woo Kim, Tom Kim, Ryan Fox, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Adrian Meronk.
From 50 to 42
Step 5: An incredible 24 of the last 26 winners had a top-30 finish at the Masters under their belt prior to winning at Augusta National. Experience can’t be underestimated. Knowing how to get around Augusta National somewhat successfully is key.
- Eliminated: Cam Davis, Stewart Hagestad, Max Homa, Kurt Kitayama, Luke List, Taylor Moore, J.T. Poston, Erik van Rooyen.
From 42 to 30
Step 6: Eight of the last nine champions were first-time Masters winners. While multiple Masters titles used to be more common, the trend of late is expanding the annual champions’ dinner. This is where we lose some huge names, five-time winner Tiger Woods included!
- Eliminated:Sergio Garcia, Dustin Johnson, Zach Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed, Charl Schwartzel, Adam Scott, Jordan Spieth, Bubba Watson, Danny Willett, Tiger Woods.
From 30 to 17
Step 7: You have to be dialed in at the Masters unless you putt unconsciously. Augusta National is a second-shot golf course, and 11 of the last 12 winners ranked inside the top seven in Greens in Regulation in their victory. Seven of the last eight were averaging at least 67.18% of GIR in their season leading into the Masters.
From 17 to 16
Step 8: The last 12 Masters champions had at least one top 10 in a major championship prior to their win. Until you get in the mix on the back nine Sunday in a major, it’s hard to know how you’ll play under the pressure.
- Eliminated:Sam Burns.
From 16 to 11
Step 9: The last 18 Masters champions have started very well with a first-round scoring average of 68.56. With all of them inside the top 11 on the leaderboard after the opening round, it's time to eliminate those without a first-round scoring average in the 60s this season.
- Eliminated: Keegan Bradley, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Lucas Glover, Adam Hadwin.
From 11 to 9
Step 10: Trending counts at Augusta National: 25 of the last 26 winners played – and made the cut – in the Masters prior to their win. Recent Masters success matters, no matter what you do between. Corey Conners came in off a win last year but didn’t make the weekend.
- Eliminated:Bryson DeChambeau, Corey Conners.
From 9 to 8
Step 11: Let’s take that a little deeper: 23 of the last 26 winners were at least T38 or better in the Masters start prior to donning the green jacket. Splitting hairs now, but a T43 the year prior isn’t good enough when we get down to the serious business!
- Eliminated: Harris English.
From 8 to 5
Step 12: Seven of the last 10 Masters winners were devoid of significant scar tissue around Augusta National before claiming their win, having four or fewer Masters rounds of 75 or more prior to triumph. Nine of those players were first-time champions, so if you factor in Tiger Woods having just three 75+ rounds before winning his first-ever Masters in 1997, then this gets stronger. The past is catching up with a few players here.
- Eliminated: Emiliano Grillo, Tyrrell Hatton, Brooks Koepka
From 5 to 2
Step 13: Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green has been a good indicator for Masters champions. The last 12 winners had gained at least 18 strokes in their previous four measured starts leading into the Masters.
- Eliminated: Tony Finau, Chris Kirk, Sahith Theegala
From 2 to 1
Step 14: With just two players left, we need to get cutthroat. The last five Masters champions all sported Augusta National scoring averages under par prior to their win. They showed a trend towards success. While Cameron Young is coming off a T7 finish last year, his average of 72.67 from six rounds is over par at Augusta.
- Eliminated: Cameron Young.
After all that we are left with just one player. The next Masters champion will be +1600 option Xander Schauffele.
You’re welcome.
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