A new FedExCup Fall format brings new opportunities for bettors
4 Min Read
The PGA TOUR continues its new schedule transition with the FedExCup Fall getting underway this week at the Fortinet Championship in Napa, California.
The fall schedule will consist of seven events, ending with The RSM Classic on Nov. 16-19. The new fall format will bring plenty of intrigue, but also plenty of questions. Here are the things to watch for this fall from a betting standpoint.
Some bigger names might be playing more fall events. How will that shape the odds market?
The new schedule format allows only the top 50 in the FedExCup standings through the BMW Championship to be exempt into the eight 2024 Signature Events. As a result, we might see more big-name players trying to make their way into those fields by qualifying in the fall. Justin Thomas didn’t make that top-50 cut. He is in the field this week at the Fortinet Championship, his first September fall event since 2019. Fall fields historically feature players trying to keep their TOUR status. How will the entry of bigger names swing the odds? Max Homa is the heavy betting favorite at +750 via BetMGM Sportsbook. Thomas is next at +1400. You won’t find anyone else inside +1800 this week. That could bring some enticing potential payouts.
Max Homa wins Fortinet Championship in dramatic finish
How many events in the FedExCup Fall will players like Thomas chose to play? Adam Scott, Shane Lowry and Billy Horschel are among the household names on the outside looking in at the 2024 Signature Events. If a bigger name is going to enter a particular tournament this fall, keep any eye out for unique odds markets or how it could shake up the outright pricing.
Will the FedExCup Fall produce another superstar?
You can make the argument that the fall schedule has been the springboard for Max Homa en route to his new star status, and his new odds outlook. His victory at the 2021 Fortinet Championship saw him with +5000 pre-tournament odds. Later that season he won the Wells Fargo Championship, and when he returned to Napa in 2022 he defended his title with odds down to +1400. At +750 this week, Homa is a product of his own fall success.
Could someone else become the next great fall value pick before they get hot? All it takes is one week for a player to have a career-changing experience and feel like they belong as one of the best in the world. Mackenzie Hughes was a winner last fall at the Sanderson Farms Championship. You can get him at a juicy +7000 this week. Akshay Bhatia won the Barracuda Championship two months ago. He has the same +5000 odds Homa had two years ago. Or what about Nico Echavarria? He won the Puerto Rico Open last March. You can get him at an eye-popping +30000. The fall schedule will have plenty of great value opportunities – now you just need to pick the right player to get hot.
Mackenzie Hughes wins Sanderson Farms Championship
Are longshot picks the way to go this fall? It’s tricky.
It’s hard not to be enticed by some of the upcoming longshot opportunities at the end of 2023. Take this week’s Fortinet Championship as an example. If you take out Max Homa’s victory at +1400 last year, seven of the previous eight winners of the event had odds of +5000 or worse. In fact, much of the 2022 fall lineup saw similar results. Mackenzie Hughes was +13000 when he won the Sanderson Farms Championship. Russell Henley was +6000 against a strong field at the World Wide Technology Championship. Adam Svensson came in at +9000 when he won The RSM Classic. That’s almost half the fall schedule right there, with winner’s odds at an average of +9333.
Adam Svensson wins The RSM Classic 2022
It's easy to look at those numbers and get excited, but historically, the fall events have mirrored the rest of the season when it comes to the success of longshots. The other winners last fall were Rory McIlroy (+650), Max Homa (+1400), Tony Finau (+1600), Tom Kim (+2200), Seamus Power (+2500) and Keegan Bradley (+3500). Power is the only one not ranked in the top 25 of the Official World Golf Rankings. So when it comes to making those high-risk, high-reward picks, remember to choose your spots carefully.
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