Chalk will reign but an outlier will challenge at Quail Hollow

The concept of Designated events on the PGA TOUR was, at its simplest form, to get the best players playing together more often. And now that we’ve had eight of these run their course this season, we can start to see some trends developing.

In seven of the eight Designated events the starting odds for the eventual winner was +3500 or less at the BetMGM Sportsbook and five of them saw the champion begin at +1200 or less.

In other words, outside of Kurt Kitayama's +20000 starting odds before the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, the winners have been fairly chalky. Without Bay Hill, the average starting price for the winners would be down to just a little higher than 15 to 1 (+1542).

Designated Event Winners and Starting Odds

Sentry Tournament of Champions: Jon Rahm +650

WM Phoenix Open: Scottie Scheffler +1200

The Genesis Invitational: Jon Rahm +750

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard: Kurt Kitayama +20000

THE PLAYERS Championship: Scottie Scheffler +1000

WGC – Dell Technologies Match Play: Sam Burns +3500

Masters Tournament: Jon Rahm +900

RBC Heritage: Matt Fitzpatrick +2800

If we dig a little deeper into the Designated event leaderboards, we also find that inside the eventual top 4 of each tournament there is at least one player who started +1200 or less.

The current odds board has Rory McIlroy as the +750 favorite with Patrick Cantlay at +1200. All other players are outside this number. So, if recent history repeats, one of these two players will indeed finish inside the top four at Quail Hollow.

Before I get into my picks for the week, let’s talk McIlroy. After a disappointing missed cut at the Masters, McIlroy has taken some personal time at home, but returns refreshed and ready for battle at a place he’s won three times.

It is clear the Northern Irishman loves the place and coming in ranked second on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee, seventh in SG: Approach and importantly first in Driving Distance certainly adds to his gravitas.

Despite this, I’m advocating a hold on any outright bets until after the first round. At +750, the juice isn’t really worth the squeeze so to speak. I am expecting a somewhat slower start from the former champion, which might see his in-play odds rise.

Now if you’re one of those people who are gung-ho on Rory, consider the +1800 on first round leader or perhaps conservatively the +400 for top five after Thursday’s play. McIlroy is part of the morning wave and as such should have nice conditions to set the pace.

Outside of the favorite, here are my selections across some of the many options BetMGM offers pre-tournament. Don’t forget to stay tuned to Golfbet.com for daily updates in Draws & Fades as the tournament progresses and live in-play opportunities arise.

OUTRIGHT

Patrick Cantlay (+1200 to win)

Cantlay was already on my radar for this week at Quail Hollow even before we learned he is taking on a new caddie in Joe LaCava. LaCava has famously been on the bag of Tiger Woods over the last decade or so but has the blessing of 82-time TOUR champion Woods to jump on another former FedExCup champions’ bag.

Cantlay does not have extensive history at Quail Hollow having missed the cut in his only appearance, but he was part of the U.S. Team last year who won the Presidents Cup at the venue last year and was 3-1-0.

Statistically Quail Hollow supports long and accurate driving (where doesn’t?) coupled with impressive putting. While Strokes Gained: Approach is a factor almost every week on TOUR, this is a week where it takes a back seat to Driving Distance and Accuracy and also rolling the rock.

Cantlay sits second on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, 26th in distance, 17th in accuracy and 17th in SG: Putting. Just for good measure, he’s fourth in SG: Total and sixth SG: Tee-to-Green. Oh… and he leads the TOUR in par-4 and par-5 scoring.

TOP 5

Jason Day (+2800 to win, +500 for top 5)

Interestingly, while the chalk ultimately has risen, there has been longshot contenders across most of the Designated events. Each event has had at least one player in the top four who started +2800 or more.

Five of eight had at least one player at +6600 or more and half of the Designated events had a player contend and finish inside the top four from triple digit to one odds, with Kitayama the posterchild winner.

My Aussie brethren Jason Day fits the trend of top five contenders at +2800 in the outright market, pretty decent for a former winner (2018) at Quail Hollow who was also one bad hole away from pushing for the 2017 PGA Championship also (T9).

Day is 39th off the tee this season, 13th in putting and sixth in SG: Total. The big question is whether he will unleash his driver as he continues his injury protective swing style. Despite holding back from full-throttle these days, the 35-year-old is 63rd in Driving Distance and 46th in Accuracy. He has six top 10s this season and while he closed the Masters with an 74-80, this came after some more issues with allergies.

TOP 10

Cameron Young (+2000 to win, +190 to Top 10); Viktor Hovland (+2000 to win, +188 to Top 10)

Both Young and Hovland should be on your radar as outright winners this week given their skill sets but I’m stopping short of them going all the way based on their putting numbers.

It still seemingly belies belief that Young is yet to win on the PGA TOUR but it’s a matter of when not if he gets it done. With his partnership with caddie Paul Tesori growing each time out I can’t ignore Young given he is third on TOUR in Driving Distance, 11th in SG: Off-the-Tee and fourth in birdie average.

Hovland ranks seventh on TOUR in SG: Off-the-Tee and is obviously one of the best ball strikers on TOUR. He was third his last time out at Quail Hollow and recently was T3 at THE PLAYERS and T7 at The Masters. He opened the RBC Heritage with a 64 before fading out to T59.

The key, as mentioned above, is their putting. Hovland ranks 138th while Young is 183rd. If they are to take it higher up the leaderboard, they’ll need a better than average week on the greens.

TOP 20

Keith Mitchell (+6600 to win, +220 for a Top 20)

Mitchell has a T8 and a T3 at Quail Hollow on his resume and ranks sixth on TOUR in SG: Off-the-Tee. He’s also 16th in Driving Distance and 21st in Driving Accuracy… hitting it far and straight!

TOP 40

Cam Davis (+9000 to win, +100 for a Top 40)

Davis had a terrible start to 2023 off the back of illness which stunted the huge gain in confidence the young Aussie gained by being at Quail Hollow last year at the Presidents Cup. He missed five straight cuts from The American Express before finally getting a clean bill of health and regaining his practice time.

Since then, he was T6 at THE PLAYERS, T17 at Match Play and was T7 at RBC Heritage. Even in his missed cut effort at the Valero Texas Open Davis showed resolve. An opening 80 was backed up with a 66 that had him in sight of making the weekend.

The great memories from the Presidents Cup should push Davis up the boards. He’s 17th in Driving Distance, 16th SG: Off-the-Tee.

LONGSHOTS

Adam Scott (+10000 to win), Hayden Buckley (+12500)

As mentioned earlier, half the Designated events have had at least one player from 100 to 1 or higher finish in the top four so we better throw out an option!

Keeping the Presidents Cup (and Australian) theme going we could look to veteran Adam Scott as a player who has plenty length off the tee and ranks 29th in SG: Off-the-Tee.

As far as the highest ranked player in SG: Off-the-Tee this year that is also over 100 to 1 – we get Hayden Buckley at fourth on TOUR. Buckley is also 25th in Driving Accuracy, 55th in Distance and 12th in Greens in Regulation. He also ranks third on TOUR in eagles per hole.

As always, good luck with all your picks!

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