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Will we have a wire-to-wire winner at Bay Hill? Berger is at the helm and cruising out front, but his lead is smaller than it's been all week ...

Bay Hill Club & Lodge has proven to be one of the most compelling tests on the PGA TOUR rota, and it’s because a specific skill is rewarded.

That much became clear to me on Saturday at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Some tournaments are putting contests. Others are predicated on distance. Bay Hill rewards what I find most interesting: approach play. The course’s combination of fast greens and the preponderance of long irons it forces into golfers’ hands immediately separates the best ball strikers in golf from those who just get by. It's also the best entertainment.

Look no further than the top of the leaderboard. Daniel Berger (13-under) led the tournament by two strokes when play was suspended. He tops the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. Akshay Bhatia was two strokes back of Berger. He ranks 18th in approach. And while 18th isn’t elite, it was by far the worst mark of anyone else that was within six shots of the lead. Sepp Straka (9-under), Collin Morikawa (9-under), Min Woo Lee (8-under), Chris Gotterup (7-under) and Ludvig Åberg (7-under) are all in the top 10 of approach play and on the leaderboard.

It may sound obvious that the players who are hitting their irons the best are the ones leading the tournament, but it’s frequently not what plays out. More often than not, it’s the best putting performances that get rewarded. But this setup is what will make Sunday at Bay Hill exhilarating. A brief squall of rain and wind softened the course midway through Saturday, but the final round is expected to stay dry, and Bay Hill’s greens are only expected to get quicker.

That will reward the best ball-strikers more than anything, the ones who have their distances dialed and can control their spin. There will be no faking it around Bay Hill, particularly with the leaderboard bunched up behind Berger. It unlocks the most dramatic part of watching golf: when the ball is in the air and you’re not sure what’s going to happen when it lands. Add in the nerves of trying to close out a TOUR event and the final round at Bay Hill is shaping up to be a treat.

Playing through

• 🇵🇷 The Puerto Rico Open continues to deliver an incredibly compelling leaderboard. John Daly II and Blades Brown headline the potential winners ...

• 🌽 Well, well, well. The newly turned 50-year-old Zach Johnson leads in his first PGA TOUR Champions event. I chatted with him ahead of his debut …

McIlroy withdraws

The biggest news of the day surrounded the golfer who didn’t play. Rory McIlroy withdrew shortly before his Saturday tee time at Bay Hill with a back injury.

What happened: McIlroy felt a “twinge” in his back while warming up in the gym, which worsened when he went to the driving range and hit balls.

Why it matters: In the immediate, McIlroy had an outside chance at winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational, nine shots off Berger entering the third round, but riding momentum after a back-nine 32 on Friday.

It’s also very unlike McIlroy. In his 19-year pro career, it’s just the second time McIlroy has withdrawn mid-tournament.

Now what?: Hard to know. With THE PLAYERS Championship next week and the Masters next month, it is plausible that McIlroy is just taking extra precaution to avoid making the injury worse and missing extended time. McIlroy did not comment on the severity of the injury in a statement he released through PGA TOUR Communications. McIlroy will return home to Jupiter, Florida, for treatment this weekend. As of Saturday evening, he was still in the field at THE PLAYERS. Regardless, it is not the ideal situation for McIlroy on the eve of a title defense at TPC Sawgrass.

Parting shots

• 🇳🇴 Have a day Viktor Hovland! Hovland surged up the leaderboard with a 5-under 67, and he has his putter to thank. He gained nearly FIVE strokes on the greens, holing more than 125 feet of putts. He one-putted 13 times on Saturday. It’s the second-best single-round performance of his career. His best also came at Bay Hill (gaining 5.23 strokes in Round 2 of 2022)
• 🤷‍♂️ Conversely, monitor Taylor Pendrith’s garbage bins for putters. The Canadian has lost more than 10 strokes on the greens, more than double the next-worst performer this week. Pendrith has three-putted eight times through 54 holes.
• 🌧 We were robbed of an even more fiery Bay Hill midway through Saturday. A squall of rain and heavy winds rolled through the area early in the afternoon and delayed play by an hour. When play resumed, the greens were noticeably softer. There’s a slight chance of rain on Sunday afternoon.
• 🍿 Let’s just take one more moment to revel in what’s happening in Puerto Rico. Amateur John Daly II is within three shots of the lead in a PGA TOUR event and 18-year-old Blades Brown is just one shot behind leader Ricky Castillo. Then add in the entire 2025 PGA TOUR University graduating class – Luke Clanton, David Ford and Gordon Sargent – all of whom are within five strokes. It’s going to be a wildly entertaining finish.