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ORLANDO, Fla. – Justin Thomas leaned left and shook his head, watching carefully as his tee shot sprayed into the right rough at Bay Hill Club & Lodge’s 11th hole on Wednesday morning. Before Thomas could pick up his tee, a smiling Russell Henley was in front of him for a handshake and a hug.

There’s been a lot of these interactions this week for Thomas, who is back on TOUR for the first time since the Ryder Cup last fall. He spent the last four months sidelined, recovering from the same back surgery that Tiger Woods and Will Zalatoris underwent in recent years.

As I typed that out, I realized the difficulty of squaring those statements. What’s fair to expect of Thomas in his return? There’s a balance to strike between the excitement of having him back and the very real history of those who have attempted similar comebacks. That’s on my mind as Thomas gets ready to play the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. What is realistic?

On one hand, Thomas is coming off a resurgent season. He won for the first time since 2022, led by a complete turnaround with the putter and the consistent ball-striking we’ve come to know. He got as high as No. 4 in the Official World Golf Ranking, the best he’s been since the 2021 Olympics. Still only 32 years old, he’s firmly within the prime of his career and made serious inroads toward a second peak last year.

Still, it’d be unfair to expect too much from Thomas too quickly. The tenuous history of golfers who have recently undergone microdiscectomies is hard to ignore. A quicker refresher:

Will Zalatoris underwent his first microdiscectomy in April 2023. He returned seven months later and made 33 starts over the next two years before needing the surgery again last May. He had only three top-10s in those 33 starts.

Tiger Woods has had six back surgeries. His first microdiscectomy was in April 2014. He played less than three months later and made 16 starts before undergoing two more back surgeries in the fall of 2015. It wasn’t until after a fourth surgery in 2017 that he turned the corner, eventually returning and winning the TOUR Championship and Masters.

Graham DeLaet underwent multiple microdiscectomies as well, first in 2011 and again in 2018. He played six full seasons after his first surgery and kept his card every year. The last surgery in 2018 was harder to come back from. He made only 10 more TOUR starts before retiring.

What are the takeaways? It’s possible to return to your old self post-surgery. DeLaet did quickly after his first operation and Woods did eventually, but it’s far from a sure thing, with Zalatoris a very recent cautionary tale.

Thomas is optimistic that his issues won’t linger. For one, the doctors caught the problem early. He’s never had any back pain. Doctors only found the issue when Thomas felt stiffness in his hip and an MRI eventually revealed the injury. He’s followed all medical guidance and feels fully healthy now. Those are all reasons to be optimistic.

“I'm going to be rusty,” Thomas said.

We’ll take rusty … as long as it’s followed by an extended bill of good health.

Playing through

• 🏆 Luke Donald is back as the European Ryder Cup captain. It’s not unprecedented, but it’s been 30 years since we’ve had a similar situation …
• 👨‍💻 Who do the experts like to win this week? There’s a healthy dose of Scottie Scheffler and multiple members of that winning European team from Bethpage Black …
• 5️⃣ What’s holding Viktor Hovland back? I dove into that and a few other subplots I’m following from Bay Hill in this week's "The Five" …

Bay Hill makes tweaks

Those with keen eyes and a good memory will see Bay Hill return to an old look this week, one with a lot more variety around the greens. The tournament re-implemented varying areas of short grass around all 18 greens that were lost during COVID, when the club didn’t have enough manpower to maintain them.

This will penalize big misses even more by propelling balls further from the greens and forcing precarious recovery shots, while minor misses won’t be as difficult as they once were when they had to hit out of thick rough from just off the green. The consensus among players and caddies on-site this week is that it will make some holes easier and some harder, though they lean toward overall scoring improving slightly.

Take note of the sixth and 11th holes, specifically. The sixth now has a bailout zone between the bunkers on the right, while a greenside bunker was removed on the 11th and replaced with short grass.

Parting shots

• 🔄 The always tinkering Viktor Hovland has changed coaches again. He parted with Grant Waite and is now working with T.J. Yeaton, with whom he worked briefly last year.
• 🤷‍♂️ Scottie Scheffler brushed off any concerns that he has a Thursday issue. Scheffler ranks outside the top 100 in first-round scoring average, but is inside the top 10 in the other three rounds. “At 16 rounds, I've had 13 that have been really solid and three that haven't been as good. So I'm still batting at a pretty nice percentage.”
• 4️⃣ Ryan Gerard is enjoying a nice run of form, but that hasn’t stopped his experimenting. My colleague Alistair Cameron caught him testing a new Scotty Cameron on Tuesday, the fourth putter he’s tried in six days.
• 🕵 Could you guess who is second in scoring average this season? I would not have been able to. It’s Jake Knapp, averaging 68.9 this season. Only Knapp and Scheffler have sub-69 averages.