Horses for Courses: Rookie Marco Penge a top contender at unique Utah venue

The FedExCup Fall chugs along with the Bank of Utah Championship, the second of eight fall events and another opportunity for players to solidify their status heading into the 2027 PGA Tour season.

Jacob Bridgeman won the opening event in Asheville, North Carolina, as one of the shorter prices on the board. Can tournament favorite Jackson Koivun (+1200) keep that trend going?

It would make plenty of sense. Koivun enters this week coming off an impressive Presidents Cup (a 2-0-1 record) and has a chance to carry that momentum straight into another tournament. Or maybe we see another short favorite get there in Michael Brennan (+1600), the defending champion and one of the best fits for an elevation course that rewards driving the ball well.

Black Desert Resort is not short on the scorecard at 7,421 yards, but it sits roughly 3,100 feet above sea level. The ball travels farther at elevation alongside dry air, which makes the course play considerably shorter than the listed yardage.

Plenty of danger still exists off the tee. Black lava rock surrounds much of the course and can punish big misses. At the same time, the fairways are massive. Golfers will hit driver frequently because there is little incentive to play conservatively.

That is also part of the course design. The rough is relatively short because the real penalty for an errant tee shot is supposed to be the lava rock, not thick rough just off the fairway. If you keep the driver somewhere near the intended target, Black Desert gives you plenty of room.

Another factor I want to target is birdie-making ability.

This should be another week where players need to go low. Black Desert plays shorter because of elevation, and the Tom Weiskopf design features massive greens averaging around 7,000 square feet. These are large, resort-style putting surfaces that give players plenty of opportunities to attack.

The data is still limited. We have only two editions of this tournament to read into, so let’s not treat the data we have as gospel.

What we have seen, though, points toward strong drivers performing well.

It is a combination of distance and accuracy, but I lean slightly more toward distance. A player who occasionally sprays it can survive here because of the wide fairways. When longer hitters keep the driver somewhat under control, they usually play their approaches from a much better position than shorter, more positional players.

That makes Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee across the last 36 rounds the highest-weighted metric in my model.

As always, my rolling sample changes throughout the season. Early in the year, I will use a larger sample. As we get deeper into the schedule and have more recent data, that number will shrink from 50 to 36 rounds, then eventually 24 or 18.

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (last 36 rounds)

• 1. Neal Shipley
• 2. Doug Ghim
• 3. Kristoffer Ventura
• 4. Marco Penge
• 5. Michael Brennan
• 6. Gordon Sargent

Data via RickRunGood

Michael Brennan, Top 20 (+105, DraftKings)

I am not sure I am completely there on Brennan to win this tournament, although getting close to +2000 on the defending champion is certainly tempting.

There's a lot to like about his game entering this week.

Brennan ranks fifth in the field in SG: Off-The-Tee across the last 36 rounds, which immediately puts him near the top of my list at Black Desert. Approach play becomes increasingly important in a birdie fest, and Brennan also ranks 14th in SG: Approach during that stretch.

He checks several other important boxes in the model. Brennan ranks first in birdie-or-better percentage and third in strokes gained on long golf courses across the same sample size, according to RickRunGood.

A couple of areas give me some concern. His long par-5 scoring is not elite, and his proximity numbers from 150 to 175 yards and 175 to 200 yards leave something to be desired. Those should be two of the more common approach ranges this week.

Still, it is hard to argue he doesn't fit the course when he literally won here last season.

Brennan has established himself as a golfer capable of competing with high-end fields and on different types of courses, with his Wyndham Championship win at Sedgefield Country Club in August as recent proof. This is not a Signature Event field, and we are getting plus money for him to finish inside the top 20 on a golf course that fits his greatest strength.

While proximity and performance on longer courses matter, Bank of Utah will be won by the player who can consistently generate birdie opportunities.

Interestingly enough, every golfer inside the top 17 in this field in birdie-or-better percentage ranks outside the top 50 in putting on Bentgrass.

That sounds strange, but it also speaks to what can make this course interesting. I do not think you need to be an elite putter to emerge victorious.

Here are the field leaders in birdie-or-better percentage:

• 1. Michael Brennan
• 2. Johnny Keefer
• 3. Matt Wallace
• 4. Ben Kohles
• 5. Marco Penge
• 6. Kevin Yu

Marco Penge: To win (+2700), First Round Leader (+4100, DraftKings)

As you can guess, none of those players listed above are particularly dominant putters. Again, I don't think you need to be spectacular on the greens this week. You need to create enough quality chances.

That brings me to Penge.

Penge’s price doesn’t match his upside and fit. He is long off the tee, scores well on shorter par 4s, is comfortable with his longer irons and is one of the better birdie makers in the field.

The issue with Penge has never really been the raw skill set. Injuries, equipment changes and everything surrounding his game have prevented him from consistently putting it all together on Tour.

Recently, that has started to change.

Penge has finished T6, T18 and T10 across his last three starts. More importantly, the underlying metrics have backed up the finishes. He gained strokes off the tee, on approach and on the putting green in all three events.

Penge is long and deadly off the tee. He stripes his irons. He makes enough birdies. If his recent form is a sign that everything is finally coming together, he instantly becomes a contender this week.