Horses for Courses: Davis Thompson headlines ball-strikers that could thrive in Asheville

I know it felt like an eternity with a couple of weeks off, but we're back for FedExCup Fall, and we’re heading to North Carolina for the newly minted Biltmore Championship Asheville at The Cliffs at Walnut Cove.

If that golf course sounds familiar, there’s a reason. The Cliffs previously served as part of the multi-course rotation for the BMW Charity Pro-Am on what is now the Korn Ferry Tour from 2005 to 2007.

That said, don’t expect anyone to come into this week with a massive amount of useful course data. A lot has changed since then, from the course itself to how we measure performance and handicap events.

What we do know is that The Cliffs at Walnut Cove is a 7,249-yard, par-71 Jack Nicklaus design. It’s a parkland-style course with some elevation, sitting roughly 2,200 feet above sea level, so the ball should travel a little farther. Water comes into play on roughly seven holes; the fairways are bentgrass, and the greens feature a bentgrass and Poa annua mix.

The rough is also long, measuring around 5 inches in spots, but don’t let that scare you too much. The fairways are extremely wide.

Since we haven’t seen PGA Tour golf here in nearly two decades, I’m not going to force course correlations or rely on historical Tour averages that don't tell us much about what this version of the course will demand.

Instead, I’m looking for golfers who can hit fairways, get hot with their irons, make plenty of birdies and have shown they can hold their own against stronger competition. The prices matter, too.

The first metric I’m looking at is Strokes Gained: Total over the last 36 rounds (data via Betsperts). When we get a golf course where it’s difficult to know exactly what the winning skill set will look like, I think overall form is one of the best places to start. Instead of trying to create the perfect course fit with limited information, I want golfers who play good golf.

• 1. Doug Ghim
• 2. Jackson Koivun
• 3. Jackson Suber
• 4. Davis Thompson
• 5. Blades Brown
• 6. Keita Nakajima

Davis Thompson, First-Round Leader (+4500)

I know the course superintendent will probably try to make things as difficult as possible, but I have a hard time believing a par-71 course with wide fairways is going to turn into anything other than a birdie fest. So why not target one of the best birdie-makers in the field?

Over the last 24 rounds, Thompson ranks sixth in the field in birdies or better gained and second in scoring opportunities. He has also been excellent when he does miss the fairway, ranking second in birdie-or-better percentage from the rough. That gives me a lot of confidence that Thompson can come out firing Thursday.

Do I trust his putter enough to cooperate for four rounds and allow him to win the tournament? Maybe not. But I don’t need four rounds here. I need one. Thompson has the upside to pile up birdies in a hurry, which makes +4500 an interesting first-round leader price.

Outside of Strokes Gained: Total, I think this could be a golf course where elite iron players have a ton of success.

I used ball-striking pretty heavily in my overall handicap, but I wanted to isolate approach play even further. More specifically, I want golfers who have entered this stretch with hot irons.

There was obviously some time off for much of the field, so I didn’t want to shrink the sample size all the way down to 24 rounds. At the same time, going out to 50 rounds felt like it would include too much outdated form.

Having 36 rounds gives us a good balance. There’s enough of a sample to trust the numbers while still placing a premium on golfers who were playing their best golf toward the end of the season.

Here are the top approach players in the field over the last 36 rounds:

• 1. Davis Thompson
• 2. Ben Kohles
• 3. Blades Brown
• 4. William Mouw
• 5. Tom Hoge
• 6. Chris Kirk

Ben Kohles, Top-40 Finish (-115)

Kohles is one of those names that keeps popping up on my sheet.

It doesn’t matter whether I’m looking at birdies or better gained, ball-striking, SG: Total, or approach play. Kohles keeps showing up near the top of the board.

He's also been playing some of his best golf of the season since midsummer. He consistently put himself in position to contend and had multiple tournaments where he legitimately threatened to win.

Kohles has also held his own in much stronger fields. He played the U.S. Open and gained nearly two strokes on approach, another encouraging sign that his ball striking can hold up when the competition gets tougher.

I also like the timing of the break.

Kohles had been knocking on the door, including a T3 at the John Deere Classic and another top-10 finish at the 3M Open. It felt like he had several chances to grab that first PGA Tour victory and couldn’t quite finish it off.

Now he gets the mental reset.

He already proved he can compete with these guys. At some point, you have to stop treating him like a golfer who is simply happy to be here. Prove you belong.

At -115, I’m comfortable betting on Kohles to finish inside the top 40.

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