With the PGA Championship just one week away, the best players in the world head to Quail Hollow Club in North Carolina for the Truist Championship.

There was certainly more danger at Trump National Doral last week than there is at Quail Hollow, but the two courses are eerily similar in one key area: They both prioritize strength off the tee over pure positioning.

Big dogs eat here.

When you look at the past champions at Quail Hollow, whether it was at the Truist Championship or even the PGA Championship, one common theme stands out: Golfers who win here tend to dominate off the tee.

This par-71, 7,830-yard course is an absolute beast. What makes Quail Hollow interesting is that it is a driver-heavy course, but not in the traditional sense. It is difficult to hit fairways here, yet the penalty for missing them is not overwhelming. The missed-fairway penalty sits right around TOUR average, which allows longer players to be aggressive without completely paying the price.

That reminds me of the old Rory McIlroy (+550) philosophy: If you hit it long enough, you can hit it past the trouble.

That has been McIlroy’s approach for much of his career, especially in these later years. Maybe that is part of the reason why he has absolutely dominated every time he has teed it up at Quail Hollow.

Last week, when building the model, the goal was pretty clear. We wanted golfers who were really long off the tee, but still accurate enough to survive a course like Doral. That is probably a big reason why Cameron Young was such a perfect fit.

This week, the formula is somewhat similar, but the emphasis shifts even more towards distance. We are still going to factor in approach numbers, especially with the long irons, but the main focus is on golfers who absolutely obliterate tee shots.

Club head speed still matters, and it is a useful piece of the puzzle, but it is not quite as important this week as it was last week. With the rough playing a little shorter, players can be more aggressive off the tee without being punished as harshly for missing fairways.

At times, this is going to sound like a broken record, but driving distance is the priority. That is the first metric we are going to look at. We want to identify the golfers who dominate with the driver, create separation off the tee, and consistently hit it the furthest.

Driving Distance leaders

• 1. Aldrich Potgieter
• 2. Rory McIlroy
• 3. Chris Gotterup
• 4. Gary Woodland
• 5. Nicolai Højgaard
• 6. Min Woo Lee
• 7. Adam Scott

When I first saw this list, I kind of chuckled. There is something hilarious about Adam Scott (+3300) being 45 years old and still sitting inside the top 10 in driving distance.

I was on Scott last week to win at Doral, and had it not been for an absolutely horrendous opening round, we could have been looking at him hoisting the trophy by Sunday evening. He closed with one of the best rounds of the day, which helped mask some of the issues he had earlier in the week.

The putting numbers were dreadful, especially early on, but he still managed to finish the week almost neutral overall. Where Scott really shined was with the ball striking. He gained +1.31 strokes ball striking, and a lot of that was fueled by his approach play.

What’s funny is that Scott, even at 45, looks like he might be playing better this season than he did last year. A lot of that comes back to the irons. Historically, we have seen him deliver at longer, more demanding golf courses. He has won at Augusta. He has won at Doral. This is not random. This is a player who knows how to handle difficult golf courses when the ball striking is there.

I think Scott is getting close to winning again. Just look at some of his finishes this season. He finished fourth at the Genesis Invitational, T11 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, T21 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, T24 at the Masters and T4 last week at the Cadillac Championship. That is a pretty strong run, especially when you consider the type of courses where he has been playing well.

I do not play the “winner without” market too often, but this felt like a really good spot to get some action down on Scott. You can obviously look at him in the Top 20 or even Top 10 markets, but in the Winner without Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy market, Scott is sitting at +2150.

That is worth more than a sprinkle for a guy who looks like he is peaking. And this is not a PGA Championship article, but if you are wise, you would get some shares on Scott to win the PGA Championship at +12500 before that number disappears.

There are two things about this golf course that I think really matter.

The first we discussed: length. The other is the difficulty Quail Hollow presents. Even though there are only three par 5s, golfers have to take advantage of them. There are only five holes on this course that play under par. Three of them are the par 5s, while the other two are No. 8, a 346-yard par 4, and No. 14, a 344-yard par 4. Scoring opportunities are limited, and the ones you absolutely have to capitalize on are the par 5s and the two short par 4s.

Given the length, golfers have to be dialed in with their long irons. Approach proximity is going to be extremely important this week because the biggest separation points come from approach shots between 175 and 200 yards, as well as 200-plus yards.

Proximity 200+ yards (last 36 rounds):

• 1. Ludvig Åberg
• 2. Alex Fitzpatrick
• 3. Adam Scott
• 4. Rory McIlroy
• 5. Sudarshan Yellamaraju
• 6. Sepp Straka

Would you look at that? Scott makes the list once again. But let’s talk about Ludvig Åberg for a second. I think Aberg is a really strong contender to have a great week, and if you want to play him in the Top 20 market, I have no issue with it. The number is a little juiced around -125, but with the way he is playing, I think he justifies that price.

He has finished inside the top five in four of his last five starts, with the lone non-top five coming at the Masters. And really, what he has done across the board has been impressive. He just continues to gain, especially tee-to-green.

Aberg also fits that “Cameron Young” type of profile where he can separate with enough distance off the tee, but he brings more accuracy than most of the bombers in this field.

And just like this list shows, Åberg is really good with his long irons.

The outright price is where things get a little interesting. At that number, you really have to decide whether you would rather take a shot on Aberg, Schauffele or McIlroy. But in terms of pure course fit, Aberg absolutely belongs near the top of the list of players who should dominate a course like Quail Hollow.

Using putting metrics is always interesting because putting performance can vary so much from golfer to golfer.

At a macro level, yes, you can say a guy is a really good putter and expect him to roll it well more times than not. But it’s also a little more complicated than that. Some golfers putt better on Bermuda. Some are better on Bentgrass. Some are more comfortable on Poa. So while putting is always worth looking at, it is not always the biggest separator every single week.

This week, though, I do think you have to pay attention to it. Quail Hollow has shown that poor putting here can be damaging.

Sam Burns (+3300) is one to consider. He’s long enough, and when his putter gets going, he’s dangerous. Another name that did not pop near the very top, but still matters, is Sudarshan Yellamaraju. He ranks ninth in SG: Putting over his last 36 rounds. He may be a bit green, but for him, the higher the finish, the better.

Ben Griffin (+3500) is right behind him at 10th, and he is another guy who at least deserves a little attention. He played well last week and could be in for another big week.

But the biggest thing we need to highlight is where McIlroy and Young land. McIlroy is 14th, and Young is 15th. Those are the two lowest numbers on the odds board, and they both still grade out well enough with the putter.

Best value on the board

Rory McIlroy Top 10 finish (-136)

Casual sports bettors often struggle with the idea that negative odds can still have value.

In this case, I actually believe McIlroy to finish Top 10 at -136 has way more value than him to finish Top 5 at +135. I understand one is juiced and the other gives you plus-money, but the margin for error is much larger in the Top 10 market. That’s important in a limited-field Signature Event where McIlroy does not have to beat as many golfers as he would in a full-field event.

And we already know how much he loves Quail Hollow.

In his most recent trip here, McIlroy finished T47 at the PGA Championship, and it was one of his worst approach weeks at this course. Before that, he won the Truist here in 2024. He also had an off week in 2023, finishing T47 at the Truist, but before that, it was basically nothing but a masterclass.

He won here in 2021, finished T8 in 2019, T15 in 2018, won in 2015 and finished T4 in 2016. Those finishes are impressive on their own, but they look even better when you remember that most of them came in expanded fields. This week, in a Signature Event, the path to a Top 10 is much easier.

He is also at the top of his game right now, and I love where his head is at. The pressure of completing the career Grand Slam is gone. The pressure of defending the Masters title is gone. For McIlroy, this feels like golf is on autopilot.

Outside of course history, the statistical profile just makes too much sense. We have golfers who can overpower this course, and McIlroy obviously fits that mold. He is one of the longest players in the field.

We also talked about how important putting could be this week. McIlroy checks that box. If he continues to be even slightly positive on the greens, he is going to be extremely difficult to beat.

The other part I like with McIlroy is the edge he plays with. Some people might call it bravado. I think it is confidence. On a difficult golf course, it is easy for players to get frustrated, start pressing, and become their own worst enemy. McIlroy does not feel like that guy right now. When his game is in a good place, that confidence becomes a weapon.

There is no denying how well McIlroy has played. Even over his last 16 rounds, he is gaining massively tee-to-green. If the putter remains steady, even just borderline positive, he can absolutely win this week.

I have not fully decided if I am going to bet him in the outright market, but right now, the Top 10 feels like a placement market I cannot pass up.

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