Draws and Fades: Ride Isaiah Salinda in windy Bermuda, stick with co-leader Austin Smotherman

Mother Nature came in and dictated the fate of plenty of golfers during the third round of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. However, Saturday’s conditions might only be the tip of the iceberg. Sunday’s final round could bring even more rain and wind, making an already difficult golf course that much more unpredictable.

Those blustery conditions in the forecast led tournament officials to move up Sunday tee times in an effort to miss the worst of the winds.

It’s hard to find much value in backing golfers further down the leaderboard, especially with the possibility of weather delays and changing conditions. Rather than trying to predict who benefits from the weather, I’d rather focus on the golfers playing the best golf.

As it stands, Austin Smotherman and Seamus Power are doing exactly that. The two men sit tied atop the leaderboard at 16 under, holding a two-stroke advantage over the chasing field, and they’re on equal footing at +210 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Power, the 2022 Butterfield Bermuda champion, knows what it takes to win at Port Royal. Meanwhile, Smotherman is looking for his second PGA Tour victory in as many starts after winning the Bank of Utah Championship for his maiden title earlier this month.

There are certainly golfers behind them with the game and experience to make a Sunday charge, especially if the weather gets crazy. However, it’s difficult to advocate betting on either leader at prices hovering around +200.

For those who followed along with Friday’s Draws and Fades article, there’s plenty of reason to be excited about Smotherman’s chances. We grabbed him at +1300, and he’s now sitting at +210. Those odds imply roughly a 30% chance of winning, but I’d argue his chances are better than that.

I’ve said it before, but Smotherman feels like a golfer on the verge of a massive run. He’s playing some of the best golf of his career, and winning two PGA Tour events in consecutive starts would certainly validate that belief.

If I had to choose between the two leaders, I’d lean Smotherman simply because he’s the hotter golfer right now. However, it’s hard to argue against Power, a former champ who has already proven he can get the job done at this golf course.

At the current prices, though, I’m more than happy to sit on that +1300 Smotherman ticket and see how Sunday unfolds.

Isaiah Salinda, Top 10 ties included (+110, FanDuel)

I’m adding a little action on Isaiah Salinda (+6500) to finish inside the top 10 with ties. He’s currently T11 and has steadily climbed the leaderboard, most recently firing a 4-under 67 on Moving Day.

What I really like is how he’s recovered from an absolutely dreadful putting performance in the opening round. According to Data Golf, Salinda lost more than five strokes on the greens Thursday. Since then, he’s started to figure things out.

More importantly, his ball-striking has been fantastic throughout all three rounds. Salinda isn’t typically a golfer I rush to bet on, but when things start clicking, I believe he can sustain that momentum.

He doesn’t need to go super low on Sunday, either. Another 3- or 4-under performance could be enough to crack the top 10. Given his ball-striking and improved putting, I believe his chances are better than a coin flip, which makes the current price worth taking.