Horses for Courses: Look for Davis Thompson to ride hot iron play at Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Did you miss it? I sure know I did. Even though it was only a week, it felt like an eternity without PGA Tour golf. But fear not, my friends. We're back this week for what should be an incredibly fun Butterfield Bermuda Championship at the beautiful Port Royal Golf Course.

Before we get into the course breakdown, I want to make one thing very clear. The odds of hitting an outright winner this week are lower than usual because of the variance at this course.

Just look at the recent winners. Over the last seven editions of this tournament, only one betting favorite has won: Seamus Power in 2022 at +2000. Adam Schenk won last season at nearly 50-1, while Rafael Campos in 2024 and Camilo Villegas in 2023 both cashed at triple-digit odds.

A lot of that variance comes down to the design and location of Port Royal Golf Course.

This Robert Trent Jones-designed layout is your classic coastal island resort course. Unpredictable winds can dramatically change scoring conditions from one round to the next. It's also incredibly short. The par-71 layout measures just 6,828 yards, and water really only comes into play on four holes.

Then we get to the greens. At roughly 8,000 square feet, these are some of the largest on Tour. They're typical resort-style Bermuda grass greens, which make finding the putting surface a little easier than at most Tour stops.

Aside from the wind, there isn't much about this golf course that should intimidate the field. When the wind is down, Port Royal is incredibly gettable.

The lack of length also forces many players to club down off the tee, which levels the playing field. While I still tend to gravitate toward longer hitters, don't be surprised if players like Denny McCarthy (+3300) find themselves in contention. Distance isn't a prerequisite for success here.

Now comes the tricky part of handicapping this tournament.

We have the scorecards, course flyovers and historical results. What we don't have is Strokes Gained data from previous editions of this tournament. That makes it difficult to build the perfect player profile based on historical performance at Port Royal.

But we have enough information to identify the metrics that should matter most.

The first place I'm looking is approach play. On short golf courses, I don't put nearly as much emphasis on what a player does off the tee. Sure, finding fairways matters, especially when the wind picks up, but I'll bet my bottom dollar that the players who have the most success this week will be the ones gaining the most strokes on approach.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Data via BetspertsGolf

• 1. Chris Kirk
• 2. Ben Kohles
• 3. Davis Thompson
• 4. Luke Clanton
• 5. Zac Blair
• 6. Ben James

Davis Thompson to win (+4000 at DraftKings)

If you told me Monday that I'd be sitting here with an outright Davis Thompson ticket, I'd have told you that you were out of your mind. But the more I broke down Port Royal, the more I liked Thompson at 40-1.

Let's start with his approach numbers.

Thompson ranks third in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 36 rounds and first over his last 24. We know what we're getting from him tee to green. He's accurate off the tee, consistently finds greens in regulation and is one of the better iron players in this field.

The concern, of course, is his putter.

It's been remarkably bad. In fact, the last time Thompson gained strokes putting was at the Rocket Classic. That's not exactly what you want to see when backing someone to win a golf tournament.

But here's where Port Royal gets interesting.

While these are Bermuda grass greens, they're also much slower than what players typically see. I've always believed that golfers who struggle with the putter on faster surfaces have a better chance of finding something on slower greens. Whether that's the case for Thompson remains to be seen, but it's something I'm willing to consider at this price.

Another thing that stood out while digging into Thompson's profile was how much better he performs in non-Signature Events and non-majors.

He's also shown he can play well on shorter courses, and I think much of that comes down to his accuracy off the tee. When other players are forced to club down to find fairways, Thompson can be a little more aggressive without sacrificing much accuracy.

That's a significant advantage at a golf course where distance is largely neutralized.

It's been a while since Thompson won a golf tournament, and he has just one top-five finish in 2026. There are certainly reasons to question whether he can string together four rounds.

But at +4000, I'm willing to take that chance.

His approach play is trending in the right direction, the course fits his strengths, and he doesn't need to overpower Port Royal to contend. If Thompson can be neutral with the putter, I think he has a legitimate opportunity to put himself in contention on Sunday.

Rico Hoey, First Round Leader (+4500 at FanDuel)

If I could bet Rico Hoey (+3300) to lead at any point during this tournament, I absolutely would. His game is incredibly close to being back, and I'm not even sure how I feel about that.

I've lost count of how many times I've backed Hoey, legitimately believing he was one of the best golfers in the field, only to watch him lose multiple strokes on the putting surface despite putting together a dazzling week of ball striking.

The good news? His putter hasn't been nearly as bad lately.

He was neutral at the Bank of Utah Championship and gained strokes putting at both the Wyndham Championship and Rocket Classic. Sure, he lost strokes at the Biltmore Championship Asheville, but there are at least some encouraging signs.

The problem with Hoey has always been his volatility, and almost all of that comes from the putter. His ball striking is good enough to produce some of the best rounds in the field, but he's also capable of wasting those opportunities when he gets on the greens.

That's why I love attacking him in the first-round leader market.

Look at his recent starts. At the Bank of Utah Championship, his best Strokes Gained performance came in the opening round. The same was true at the Biltmore Championship Asheville, Wyndham Championship and Rocket Classic.

There's a clear trend here. Hoey is an incredibly fast starter, and his ability to gain strokes in bunches makes him a perfect candidate to post one of the lowest rounds of the tournament.

Port Royal should also suit his game. He's excellent off the tee, terrific on approach and won't be penalized nearly as much for his lack of putting consistency if he can find a little momentum on these slower Bermuda greens.

I genuinely believe Hoey will find himself near the top of the leaderboard at some point this week. Whether he can sustain that level of play for 72 holes is another question.

At +4500, I'd much rather back him to put together one brilliant opening round than trust his putter to survive an entire tournament.