Draws and Fades: Look out for Jacob Bridgeman’s putter to heat up in Japan

What a fun golf tournament the Baycurrent Classic has been. Before we get into the final round, let's take a moment to pat ourselves on the back for what we've accomplished thus far.

Through live betting, we've put ourselves in position to cash some pretty fun bets. We cashed a piece of the third-round leader market with Zach Bauchou (+600), hit Michael Brennan (+440) over 4.5 birdies, and have a live Brennan outright ticket at +2200 with him tied for the lead heading into Sunday. Oh, and that Justin Thomas (+650) top-20 ticket is looking halfway decent with him sitting T4.

Even with just one round remaining, there's still plenty of golf to be played, especially at a place like Yokohama Country Club. This is a golf course where you can easily shoot 32 or better on the front nine, give it all back on the back nine and somehow finish over par.

Just look at Bauchou's scorecard from Saturday. He went out in 32 and added three more birdies through 13 holes. Then, on his way in, he made three bogeys over his final four holes. If that doesn't tell you how much danger is lurking around this golf course, I don't know what will.

One of the more fascinating things we've seen this week is how the golf course has changed right before our eyes. During the first round and parts of the second, Yokohama was soft and extremely gettable. Much of that was due to the rain that had been falling for days leading up to the tournament.

But with the rain gone, the golf course has started to firm up, and the scoring averages reflect that. The first two rounds averaged 1.35 strokes under par, while the third round averaged 1.19 strokes under par. More importantly, the back nine played 0.33 strokes over par on Saturday.

That should make for an exciting finish. Co-leader Jacob Bridgeman (+350) is looking to win in back-to-back stroke-play starts, Bauchou is chasing his first PGA Tour victory, and Brennan is looking for his third career win and second of 2026.

With that said, let's get into a couple of final-round bets.

Justin Thomas, birdie or better all par 5s (+174, DraftKings)

When you first read this bet, having Thomas make birdie or better on every par 5 sounds much more difficult than it actually is.

First, there are only two par 5s at Yokohama Country Club, and both have been playing ridiculously easy throughout the tournament.

Even during Saturday's more difficult conditions, the 536-yard fourth hole played 0.40 strokes under par, while the 529-yard sixth played 0.74 strokes under par.

Essentially, with how these two holes are playing, finding the fairway off the tee should give Thomas a legitimate opportunity to putt for eagle, assuming he doesn't hit an absolutely abysmal second shot.

Thomas has crushed the par 5s this week. In fact, he's birdied every single one except the sixth hole during Thursday's opening round. And wouldn't you know it, that was the one time he missed the fairway.

All in all, Thomas has put together a pretty impressive tournament. He's been solid in just about every statistical category, particularly off the tee, and his putter has cooperated for much of the week.

If he continues finding fairways at a high rate, especially on these two holes, I believe he has a legitimate chance to give himself two eagle looks. And if that's the case, I love his chances of walking away with at least two birdies.

Jacob Bridgeman, over 4.5 birdies or better (-120, DraftKings)

This probably isn't the safest bet on the board, especially considering Bridgeman is entering the final round tied for the lead. Nerves can always come into play, and the pressure of trying to close out a golf tournament can change how someone approaches a round.

If it had been almost anyone else, I probably would've passed.

But Bridgeman isn't just any 54-hole leader.

The only other time Bridgeman held a 54-hole lead, he went on to win the tournament. He already has two PGA Tour victories under his belt, including one in his most recent start, and now he's looking to make it two straight.

I also believe Bridgeman knows he's going to have to shoot 68 or better to have a legitimate chance of winning this golf tournament. There are nine other golfers either tied with him or within three strokes of the lead. Sitting back and protecting a score isn't going to get it done. He has to come out swinging.

From a numbers perspective, Bridgeman has cleared this total in two of three rounds, and he probably should've gotten there Friday. But after opening with a ridiculous 63, a slight regression was almost expected.

What makes this bet even more interesting is what we're seeing in his strokes gained numbers.

Bridgeman has been outstanding on approach, but his putter hasn't necessarily matched the quality of his iron play. Sure, it's gotten hot at times, but over the course of 18 holes, the consistency hasn't been there.

And that's important because we're talking about arguably the best putter in this field and one of the best on Tour.

He lost strokes putting on eight of his 18 holes Saturday. For someone with his ability on the greens, that leaves plenty of room for improvement heading into the final round.

I genuinely believe there's some positive regression coming with his putter, and if he continues striking his irons the way he has all week, carding five birdies is well within reach.

Now, selfishly, I don't want Bridgeman's putter getting too hot because I've still got that Brennan outright ticket sitting at +2200.

But I'm not going to ignore a good betting opportunity just because it might hurt another ticket.

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