Draws and Fades: Look for Justin Thomas to get out of neutral at Baycurrent Classic

Shoutout to those of you stateside who stayed up late to watch the Baycurrent Classic in its entirety. Luckily for you, you were treated to some fantastic golf from Jordan Smith and even better play from Jacob Bridgeman, who went out and fired a bogey-free, 8-under 63.

Bridgeman was incredible, gaining 6.46 strokes on the field, more than four strokes better than second-place Smith, and he’s now the +310 betting favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook.

How did Bridgeman do it? It was a combination of elite iron play and making just about every putt in front of him. While Bridgeman didn't hit every fairway, he was dynamite with his irons, gaining nearly three strokes on approach.

Bridgeman is looking for his third PGA Tour victory and his second consecutive win, and he's off to a mighty fine start.

Through one edition and one round of the Baycurrent Classic in its current form, we still don't have a strong indication of what success looks like at Yokohama Country Club. Had you asked me before the tournament, I would have told you I wanted to collect chips on every golfer who could bomb it deep and pray they hit enough fairways to remain competitive.

I haven't fully changed my mind about the skill set needed to dominate at Yokohama, but I can't help noticing how many accurate drivers fared well in the opening round. According to Data Golf, this course favored accuracy over distance through the first round.

As for the weather, we should expect much of the same. Clear skies with winds around 6 to 12 mph. Nothing that will significantly impact the tournament or change how golfers attack this course.

One important thing to note is that the course remains relatively wet and soft after an extended stretch of rain in the area.

That makes me want to target pin-seekers. Give me golfers who are ultra-aggressive with their irons because, as this tournament progresses, I expect those players to climb the leaderboard. With four rounds and no cut, there will be plenty of opportunities to make birdies.

Justin Thomas, Top 20 (+100)

Thomas is a great example of a golfer who should succeed at this course. I don't expect him to miss too many fairways because his misses aren't typically wide. That was evident in the opening round when he hit 12 of 15 fairways.

He actually played a pretty good round despite finishing at just 2 under. More importantly, he opened with a bogey-free, 2-under par front nine before disaster struck on the putting surface at No. 10.

Thomas pumped a 327-yard drive down the fairway, hit the green in regulation, and then three-putted for bogey. He played the back nine in even par, but there were still some positives he can take into the second round.

Remember how I said this is a golf course where players should be able to attack pins? Well, Thomas didn't really do that in the opening round. He was essentially neutral on approach and lost strokes on the greens.

I can live with that if the putting struggles become less frequent and he starts gaining strokes with his irons.

Thomas isn't someone I'm rushing to back for a top-five finish or even a top 10, but a top-20 finish at even money, given his skill set and a 72-player field, is more than enough for me to expect a bounce-back performance in the coming days.

I don't expect Thomas to remain stuck in neutral. He came out strong Thursday, and everyone knows the front nine is where you score while the back nine is where you try to hold on.

I think Thomas can get off to another fast start, capitalize on those scoring opportunities and climb the leaderboard.

Round 2 Three-Ball: Ryan Gerard over Kevin Yu and Tony Finau (+110)

This really feels like a pretty significant skill gap to me.

You have Kevin Yu, who has experienced some highs but also plenty of lows. Those struggles started creeping into his game last week and reared their ugly head again in the opening round.

Yu went out and fired a 3-over 74 while losing strokes tee to green. More importantly, he lost more than two strokes on approach and another three strokes putting.

Could he turn things around and have a massive bounce-back performance? Absolutely. But I just don't think his game is in a good enough spot right now for me to back him against Ryan Gerard (+2200).

The other golfer is Tony Finau, who finished his opening round at even par. His performance was pretty neutral across the board, but that scorecard could have looked a lot worse.

Finau hit just nine of 15 fairways, and considering how generous these landing areas are, that lack of command with his driver is concerning.

What's even more concerning is the overall state of Finau's game. He's missed the cut in three of his last five events, and his best finish over his last eight starts was a T40 at the RBC Canadian Open.

I'm perfectly fine fading him against almost anyone who ranks inside the top 20 in strokes gained over the last season.

That brings me to Gerard.

He had a bit of a roller-coaster round on his way to a 3-under 68. He eagled the par-5 fourth but also made double bogey at the par-4 ninth after hitting one of the worst tee shots we saw all day.

His driving wasn't particularly good, either. Gerard hit just 10 of 15 fairways and lost strokes off the tee.

But here's the difference. Even without his best stuff, Gerard still found a way to shoot 68.

He's a grinder, and his overall game is simply in a much better place than either Yu's or Finau's right now.

I have a hard time believing Finau suddenly flips the switch, and Yu hasn't shown me enough consistency to warrant backing him in this matchup.

Ultimately, this feels more like a head-to-head matchup between Gerard and Yu, with Finau being the golfer I'm most comfortable fading.

Getting Gerard at +110 against two players who have struggled recently feels like a solid opportunity. He has the upper hand in overall skill set, and I trust his ability to bounce back from a poor driving performance more than I trust either of his opponents to suddenly find their game.

For resources related to problem gambling, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.