Draws and Fades: Michael Brennan poised to make weekend charge at Baycurrent Classic

It was great to see Justin Thomas fire off one of the rounds of the day Friday at the Baycurrent Classic, a bogey-free, 6-under 65 to give our live top-20 bet plenty of life. Thomas currently sits T7 and realistically has a chance to catapult himself into the last group for the final round with a strong Moving Day.

That said, we have two golfers tied at the top. Keith Mitchell (+440 at FanDuel Sportsbook) moved to 11 under after firing his own 6-under 65, while Jacob Bridgeman (+260), the 18-hole leader, followed his opening round with a 3-under 68. The duo leads a pack of more than 15 golfers within five strokes of the lead heading into the third round on Saturday.

Five strokes feels like the cutoff for golfers with a realistic chance to win this tournament. That's not to say someone further down the board can't make a run, but with the course playing approximately 1.44 strokes under par (via DataGolf), you'd have to imagine it takes a round of 64 or better to get back into contention.

Think about it: A golfer sitting at 6 under who shoots 64 moves to 13 under. If Mitchell and Bridgeman play relatively flat or around the course average, they're likely sitting at 13 or 14 under themselves. That's why I believe the golfers within five strokes are firmly in the mix heading into Saturday.

Michael Brennan to win (+2200, FanDuel) | Brennan over 4.5 birdies or better (-138, DraftKings)

I had a difficult time finding someone five strokes back who I genuinely believed could win this tournament. It's not because I don't trust the golfers in that position. It's because none of them have shown enough in a specific statistical category through two rounds to convince me they have the chops to put together consecutive rounds of 64 or better.

However, there was something about Michael Brennan's profile that made me want to back him in both the outright and placement markets.

Brennan fired a 4-under 67, and it wasn't pretty by any means. He bogeyed the second hole and doubled the 18th, yet still managed five birdies and an eagle. He hasn't had a particularly strong round on approach, and his irons haven't been fantastic. Then again, losing a combined 2.5 strokes on two holes will certainly put a dent in your numbers.

Just imagine what happens if he cleans up those mistakes.

He's absolutely pumping it off the tee (320.3/T4), which is exactly what I want to see at this golf course. The fairways are a mile wide, and this is the type of course where Brennan should thrive, especially considering how well he's played recently.

Look at his results. He won the Wyndham Championship, finished T10 at the BMW Championship and followed that with a T13 at the Bank of Utah Championship after sitting inside the top five following the opening round. It's been an incredible stretch of golf, and Brennan has consistently shown that he can contend on courses that reward his strengths.

Whenever I'm evaluating value against what the sportsbooks are projecting, I want to identify where the upside comes from. Part of that is bounce-back potential. Can a golfer recover from a bad hole, a ball in the water or a couple of costly mistakes? Is there an area of his game that's underperforming relative to what we know he's capable of?

For Brennan, it's the approach play.

His putter has actually been fantastic this week (ninth in Strokes Gained: Putting), which has traditionally been one of his biggest weaknesses. If he can get his irons dialed in just a little more and eliminate the costly mistakes, I don't think a 6- or 7-under round on Moving Day is crazy.

That's why I'm taking two different angles. I like Brennan at +2200 to win the golf tournament, but I also believe there's value in his over 4.5 birdies or better at DraftKings. He's already demonstrated the ability to create plenty of scoring opportunities, and with the way he's driving the golf ball, there's no reason he can't make at least five birdies in the third round.

Zach Bauchou, third-round leader (+1200, FanDuel)

Everyone knows how difficult it is to replicate an extremely low round the following day. That's essentially what we're asking Bauchou (+1200) to do, but his numbers through the first two rounds suggest there's legitimate upside.

His second round was remarkable. Bauchou was a massive gainer from tee-to-green, and his putter was fantastic. He was only two shots off from matching Ben Kohles' (+1500) 9-under 62, the low round of the day.

But what makes Bauchou particularly interesting at +1200 in this market isn't just what happened in the second round. It's what he showed us in the opening round.

Bauchou carded six birdies on Thursday but finished just 2 under after bogeying the 10th and 17th holes and making double bogey on the 18th. He consistently gave himself scoring opportunities throughout the day but failed to capitalize on a handful of holes. Had he simply played the final two holes clean, we're talking about a 5-under round instead of a 2-under round.

Then he went out Friday and absolutely blitzed the golf course while gaining strokes across the board.

That's why I like this so much. We're looking at a golfer who has demonstrated the ability to generate birdie opportunities in consecutive rounds, and now we're seeing the rest of his game come together.

If Bauchou shoots 65 on Saturday, there's a legitimate possibility he's tied for the lead or sitting alone at the top. Now imagine he goes out and fires a 63 or better. Suddenly, we're looking at a golfer who could be playing in Sunday's final group with the lead.

And given what we've seen from Bauchou throughout his career, I don't think we're asking for something completely unreasonable. He's shown the ability to produce those spike rounds, and there's enough talent in his game to believe he can do it again.

I also think this tournament presents a tremendous opportunity for him. It's a smaller field, the conditions have been favorable for scoring and he has a chance to elevate his career with a strong weekend.

At +1200, I'm willing to bet that Bauchou can carry the momentum from Friday into Moving Day. He doesn't necessarily need another massive round to give us a chance. But if his ball-striking remains as sharp as it was in the second round, there's absolutely a path to another 65 or better and a spot atop the leaderboard heading into the final round.

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