Draws and Fades: Look for elite ball-striking to keep Johnny Keefer in contention at Bank of Utah Championship

After three rounds of the Bank of Utah Championship, Austin Smotherman (+105 at DraftKings Sportsbook) leads by one stroke after firing a third-round 65 to take the top spot heading into Sunday.

It probably won't be the easiest night of sleep for Smotherman, though. Doug Ghim (+115), thanks to a ridiculous 29 on the back nine, trails by just one stroke. A host of golfers sit within five shots and have an outside chance to chase down the 54-hole leader.

It's a shame we're already at the final round because Black Desert has been such a fun golf course to watch. The fairways are a mile wide, but there is still a nice mix of risk and reward. Bogeys go along with the birdies.

Smotherman is a perfect example. He made a few bogeys Saturday and still walked off with a 65. Ghim had multiple bogeys on his card and still found a way to shoot 29 on the back nine.

And while a lot of people may look at the leaderboard and think this is simply a two-person race between Ghim and Smotherman, I wouldn't go that far. Plenty of players behind them believe they can still win this golf tournament.

According to Data Golf, both Smotherman and Ghim have better than a 41% chance to win, with Ben James (+1800) the closest chaser at 4.1%. Those numbers are pretty close to what we're seeing in the betting markets as well. The difference is that the markets slightly favor Smotherman, compared to Ghim, while Data Golf gives Ghim the better chance to win.

Fade: Austin Smotherman (+105)

This isn't necessarily a recommendation to make a bet. Still, if I'm playing anything involving Smotherman, I'm much more interested in betting he won't win this golf tournament.

That price is sitting around -140.

Smotherman is making his 100th PGA Tour start and is still without a victory. That doesn't mean he doesn't have the game to get it done Sunday, but I like Ghim's chances of winning this tournament more than I like Smotherman's.

And this isn't a knock on how Smotherman has played this week. He's been one of the best players in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green; his ball striking has been fantastic, and he's surprisingly gained nearly two strokes putting.

For me, that's exactly where the concern comes in.

Can Smotherman keep putting at this level when the pressure is on? We're talking about someone who has historically been a poor putter and ranks outside the top 100 in SG: Putting over his last 50 rounds.

Michael Brennan (+10000) showed last year that putting doesn't have to be the defining skill at Black Desert, but I don't care what golf course you're playing. At some point Sunday afternoon, you'll have to make a few important putts to win on the Tour.

Smotherman's final-round history doesn't exactly inspire confidence, either. Over his recent measurable final rounds, he sits around the middle of this field depending on the data source. Not everyone here has 50 comparable rounds, but most have enough of a sample to suggest Smotherman hasn't consistently elevated his game in these spots.

I'd love to see him get his first PGA Tour win. From a value standpoint, though, I think there's more bang for your buck betting him not to win than backing him at a short number.

Johnny Keefer Top 5 (+200)

What a round from Johnny Keefer (+4000).

Keefer fired the round of the day, a 9-under 62, to vault himself into a tie for sixth. The interesting part is that I don't think what he did Saturday is completely out of the question again Sunday.

Maybe another 62 is asking too much, but a 64? That's absolutely within the range of outcomes for Keefer with the way he's striking the ball.

He's third in the field in ball-striking this week, which shouldn't surprise anyone. What was surprising was what he did with the putter Saturday, gaining nearly four strokes on the greens.

Keefer isn't a terrible putter, but that's certainly not his strength. In fact, this was the first time during the 2026 calendar year that he gained more than one full stroke putting in a tournament. His previous best was around +0.99 at the 3M Open, and he has gained strokes putting in only eight of his 24 starts this season.

Maybe he found something with the flat stick. Maybe it disappears Sunday.

The good news is that he doesn't need another four-stroke putting performance to contend. Keefer paired the hot putter with nearly three strokes gained in ball striking, and that part of his game is much easier to trust.

Gaining four strokes with the putter is difficult to replicate. Elite ball-striking isn't.

That's why I think Keefer is worth considering at +200 for a top-five finish heading into the fourth and final round.