Draws and Fades: Back PGA Championship contender Alex Smalley for weekend run at Colonial

Round 2 at the Charles Schwab Challenge played almost a stroke harder than Round 1 at Colonial Country Club. With a double bogey by Jackson Suber on the ninth hole, his 18th, 75 players made the cut. That Suber misstep added 11 players for the weekend, who all finished at 2-under through two rounds. Everyone who made the cut is within eight shots of our leader, Jordan Smith. Smith grabbed the 36-hole lead with a five-under 65 for a 10-under total.

“Going into the weekend in good position,” Smith said. “The putter’s been hot the last two days, which is nice to see. Swing still hasn’t felt a hundred percent, but we’ve been hitting a lot of fairways and a lot of greens, which is key out here.”

With all of that congestion at the top of the leaderboard, where is the best place to look for some value in Round 3? Hideki Matsuyama (+720) is the current betting favorite to win, and he is joined by nine other players, all under +1600 on the odds board at DraftKings Sportsbook.

According to Smith, the putter is still the skill to focus on. The Strokes Gained leaderboard tells a similar story, but after Round 2, iron play is also propelling many of these names into contention. Round 1 draw J.J. Spaun (+1225) is still very much in contention.

Considering the combination of SG: Approach and the putter, Alex Smalley (+1250) is right next to Spaun on the odds board and tied (with Spaun) on the leaderboard at 8-under. The runner-up at the PGA Championship, Smalley’s scoring average on Saturday is ranked 14th on TOUR. And through two rounds, he has gained 6.3 strokes on the field with his flat stick and iron game.

A second player to draw up another weekend ticket with is Michael Brennan. Much like Matt McCarty after Round 1, Brennan looks like a great placement add. The best driver of the golf ball in the field, take Brennan to make a move and finish in the top 10 (+200). Between Brennan’s driver and putter, he is gaining over five strokes on everyone else.

Both of our Round 2 fades cashed. Lee Hodges and Andrew Putnam each carded over 68.5 in Round 2. Knowing what skills suit a successful scorecard, here are two players I would fade in Round 3. Mackenzie Hughes is ranked 121st in Saturday scoring. The wind is going to kick up tomorrow afternoon out of the south. With gusts in the 20+ range, and small targets at Colonial (average green size 5,000 sq/ft) take Hughes to hit fewer than 11.5 Greens in Regulation (+115). Hughes has only hit 25 greens in the first two rounds under calm conditions.

Another fade is Akshay Bhatia. Bhatia’s ball-striking has been inconsistent at best. He has had no top-10 finishes since he won at Bay Hill in early March. Off the tee and on approach, he has been losing strokes to the field in successive starts. Take Bhatia over 69.5 in Round 3 (-104). With challenging conditions and securing only 23 of 36 GIRs through two rounds, I expect a regression to the recent mean.

Oddsmakers set the winning score over/under at 266.5 (-13.5). The leader sits at 10-under at the midway point. With 14 players already halfway to 14-under, I think there’s more excitement coming at Colonial.