What a treat we got in the third round of the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Due to inclement weather, the round was slightly delayed, and players were given preferred lies throughout. Scores are already low in the best-ball format, but this made things a little wild.

Matt and Alex Fitzpatrick stole the show, setting a Zurich Classic Four-ball record with a 15-under 57. The duo went out in 29 with five birdies and an eagle, then somehow topped it coming home in 28, birdieing every hole but the 13th. The Fitzpatricks now take a four-shot lead into the final round, which shifts to Foursomes (alternate shot), a format where they posted a field-best 65 earlier in the week. Their live odds currently sit at -550 at DraftKings Sportsbook, indicating an 84.6% chance of winning.

Both brothers came into the week in strong form. Matt Fitzpatrick had already picked up two wins this season, including last week at the RBC Heritage, where he outlasted world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. Much like Matt, Alex Fitzpatrick won his last start as well. For them, this is about more than just another title. If they go on to win, Alex earns a two-year exemption.

It wasn’t just Team Fitzpatrick posting low numbers. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen and Jacob Skov Olesen, along with Lanto Griffin and Ben Kohles, both fired 60s on the day. Even more impressive was the 27 on the back nine from the Neergaard-Petersen and Skov Olesen pairing, a stretch that included two eagles and four birdies.

Much like Saturday’s forecast, Sunday could bring possible thunderstorms in the afternoon. Winds should be moderate, around 6 to 10 mph, with gusts reaching near 14 mph later in the day. Given the current forecast, I’d expect players to have preferred lies again for the final round.

A four-shot lead is significant in this format, but as we’ve seen this season, 54-hole leads haven’t exactly been safe. That said, Matt Fitzpatrick just converted a 54-hole lead last week and now looks to do it again for a second straight start.

Strokes-gained data isn’t available in this team format. In-play betting really comes down to the eye test and season-long form. You can look at which players are swinging a hot bat, which ones carry strong strokes gained numbers over the season, or even get granular with things like playing the same golf ball.

For me, it comes down to who’s swinging it well and which teams have the best chemistry and complementary play styles.

Winner Without Team Fitzpatrick: Alex Smalley and Hayden Springer (+225 DraftKings)

When handicapping an event like this, it’s easy to throw the stats out the window and just bet on vibes or recent form. Coming in, the Fitzpatricks had some of the best form in the field. But for me, I wanted to stay analytical. I built a model, took the average score for each team, and combined them. It felt like the smartest way to identify which pairings had the best chance of playing high-level golf together.

When I went through my rankings, I admittedly glossed over Team Smalley/Springer (+1100), who ranked third overall. A big reason was Springer dragging the team average down a bit, with a ranking of 22, the second-lowest among the top-six teams. The only comparable case was Alex Fitzpatrick at 46, but he’s paired with the top-ranked player in my model, while Alex Smalley came in at sixth. Looking back, I was too quick to dismiss them. They’re playing too well, and the underlying strokes gained numbers are too strong not to find some angle.

They opened with a 58, then cooled off in alternate shot with a 70. That’s not all that surprising. It’s tough to follow a round like 58 with another heater, especially in a tougher format. What I did like was the response in the third round, posting a 62. It wasn’t quite on the level of the market leaders, Davis Thompson and Austin Eckroat (+1000), but it was more than respectable.

I think the gap between those teams is tighter than the numbers suggest. Springer may not get much attention, but this pairing works. Sitting four shots back of the Fitzpatricks, they can play loose and free with nothing to lose. Outside of Team Fitzpatrick and Team Thompson/Eckroat, they’re the only other team with negative odds to finish inside the top five.

There’s value here, especially in the runner-up market, and even in a tie scenario, the dead heat is palatable.

Andrew Novak/Ben Griffin, Top 10 Finish (+154)

The Zurich Classic got off to a slow start for the defending champs. Novak and Griffin opened with a fairly underwhelming 7-under 65 in the Four-ball format. They followed that up with a solid 69 in alternate shot, then bounced back nicely with a 61 in the third round.

They currently sit at 21-under par for the tournament, just one shot off the pace for a tie for 10th. As a team, I believe they can outperform at least four of the groups currently T10 or better. This is a pairing that not only won here last year, but has shown flashes of how dangerous they can be when they’re in sync.

It hasn’t been the smoothest season for Griffin, but if you look back, this event sparked his run last year and helped launch one of the best stretches of his career. Novak, on the other hand, has been steady. Not perfect, but consistently solid.

The combination of Griffin’s power off the tee and Novak’s iron play makes them a really strong alternate shot team. I’d project them around a 53% chance to finish inside the top 10, which would price closer to -113. With a dead heat in play, anything +125 or better (including ties) is worth a look. I think they land somewhere around T7 if they put together a respectable final round.

And it’s worth remembering, these team events carry a ton of variance. There’s a lot of luck involved hole to hole and round to round. That’s why I wouldn’t overextend on individual props. But when you blend a bit of analytics with team chemistry, there’s still value to be found.