After three rounds at the Valspar Championship, Sungjae Im (+115) holds a two-shot lead over Brandt Snedeker (+700) and David Lipsky (+700). This is just the second 54-hole lead of Im’s career, and if he gets it done on Sunday, it will mark his third PGA TOUR victory—and his first since the 2021 Shriners Children’s Open.

Im has been incredible on his way to this position. He’s gaining strokes both on approach and with the putter, which is exactly the formula you want around Innisbrook Resort. What’s been interesting is that his off-the-tee play hasn’t been anything special, but it also hasn’t hurt him. He hit just 7 of 13 fairways in Round 3 and still only made two bogeys while posting a two-under round. That’s what’s great about Im’s tournament thus far.

He’s in control. When parts of his game are “off” it really hasn’t cost him.

If you’ve followed this event over the years, it really shouldn’t surprise you if Im closes this out.

This tournament has consistently produced longshot winners. Four of the last five champions were priced north of +5000, and since 2010, the average winning odds sit around +7800. A lot of that comes down to the type of course Innisbrook is. It rewards great ball strikers, but it also introduces just enough variance where players who are dialed in for one week can absolutely pop.

With good weather expected, it’s hard to point to anything externally that would slow Im down. But at the same time, winning on the PGA TOUR is never easy. His live number is around +115, which tells you that. The books are essentially saying he wins this less than half the time, even with a two-shot lead.

The tricky part about trying to fade him is that the guys behind him aren’t exactly screaming value either.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+350) is sitting there three shots back as the second favorite, but he hasn’t won on TOUR since the 2023 RBC Heritage. Snedeker hasn’t won since 2018. Lipsky is still looking for his first PGA TOUR win. Even guys a little further down the board fall into that same bucket. So no matter how you slice it, you’re likely looking at someone who either hasn’t won in a long time or hasn’t won at all.

That’s what makes the outright market feel a little uncomfortable. At these prices, it starts to feel more like a guessing game. So instead, I’m shifting to the placement markets for the final round, where I think there’s a bit more edge.

Xander Schauffele, Top 20 (+100, FanDuel)

There’s just something about Schauffele’s game right now that doesn’t feel fully there. You’ll see stretches where he looks like one of the best players in the world, and then suddenly there’s a lapse—usually with the putter. The amount of short putts he’s missed lately feels high, and I’m sure it feels even worse to him.

That said, he’s sitting T25 heading into Sunday, and this is where the value comes in for us.

From a numbers standpoint, Schauffele has been one of the better final-round players in this field. Over his last 20 fourth rounds, he’s gained 1.27 strokes on the field on average, with nearly all of that coming from his ball striking (+0.99). And if there’s one thing you have to do well at Innisbrook, that’s hit fairways and greens.

The putter has been slightly negative over that stretch (-0.08), but interestingly enough, he’s actually been positive on the greens this week (+0.18). Pair that with +1.00 strokes gained tee to green, and you can start to see why the placement bet makes sense.

This is also the time of year when guys like Schauffele start to lock in. He knows his start to the season hasn’t been up to his standards, and with majors around the corner, it’s time to gain some momentum.

History is on his side as well. He’s finished no worse than 12th in his last three starts at Innisbrook. Even more telling, his final rounds here have been ridiculous, gaining 4.9 strokes in 2025 and 6.34 in 2024.

At +100, you’re basically asking him to be slightly better than a coin flip. Given everything we know, that feels like a number worth playing.

Matt Fitzpatrick, Top European (-128, DraftKings)

This is a market I don’t tap into often, but it felt like the best way to back Fitzpatrick without forcing anything in the outright market.

What he’s doing tee-to-green this week has been elite. He’s leading the entire field in that category, gaining 3.0 strokes. To put that into perspective, that’s over a stroke better than Im and more than two strokes clear of Snedeker.

We’ve also seen flashes of how good he’s been lately. At THE PLAYERS Championship, he was five under in the final round, standing on the 18th tee with a real chance to win. It didn’t work out, but that doesn’t take away from how well he played.

The problem is the outright price. Betting someone around +350 who is three shots back in a crowded leaderboard just isn’t something I love.

But when you shift to the Top European market, it simplifies things. His main competition is limited, and at that point, I’m just trusting the numbers.

If Fitzpatrick continues to hit it like this, it’s hard to see him not separating over 18 holes. If the putter even cooperates a little bit, he should be in a great position to cash this and probably have a chance to win the tournament.