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Draws and Fades: Wagering on Wyndham Clark to foil final group at The American Express

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Draws and Fades

Wyndham Clark hits 122-yard approach to 4 feet, makes birdie on No. 12 at The American Express

Wyndham Clark hits 122-yard approach to 4 feet, makes birdie on No. 12 at The American Express

    Written by Jimmy Reinman

    The American Express always asks bettors to stay patient, and Saturday is where that discipline is tested the most.

    Si Woo Kim was the star of Saturday, posting a 66 to add to his previous rounds of 63 and 65 to take the top spot on the leaderboard at 22-under heading into Sunday in what will be a can’t-miss final group. Alongside him will be the young Blades Brown, 18, who has snatched headlines all week and continued his run with three birdies in a row to close out a round of 68 to sit at 21-under. Rounding out the final group alongside Brown at 21-under is a quiet, unassuming Texan named Scottie Scheffler, likely to be a total non-factor.

    With the three-course rotation now complete, the field has finally been funneled onto one stage in the marquee Pete Dye Stadium Course. La Quinta Country Club and the Nicklaus Tournament Course did exactly what they were supposed to do in terms of score inflation, blurring the leaderboard and tempting bettors into overreacting early.

    Let's take a look at the odds heading into Sunday at La Quinta.

    Odds to win after Round 3 (via FanDuel)

    • +100: Scottie Scheffler
    • +210: Si Woo Kim
    • +850: Blades Brown
    • +1100: Wyndham Clark
    • +1700: Eric Cole
    • +2700: Matt McCarty
    • +4000: Tom Hoge
    • +5000: J.T. Poston

    If you didn’t catch the sarcasm above, Scheffler is, predictably, a massive problem. He’s the best player in the world, he’s striking it beautifully in his season debut and he’s proven time and time again that he is built for closing on Sunday.

    But at +100, there’s simply no margin. You’re paying full freight and then some, hoping nothing weird happens on a volatile Dye design that has a habit of introducing chaos late on Sunday. A bet for Scheffler is never an outright bad idea, but it just comes with the kind of tax that a player of his caliber has earned.

    Draw: Wyndham Clark (+1100)

    For those who rode with us here after Round 2, only one player from our Friday “stable” remains with a realistic path to the trophy in Wyndham Clark.

    Clark sits at 20-under par, two shots off the lead, and is available at +1100 in the win-only market. With Scottie Scheffler looming as the overwhelming favorite, this is exactly the zone where we want to live. We are backing his inherent talent, apparent return form and momentum while other betting options swallow an unpalatable number.

    After adding him to our stable yesterday, we’re not moving off Clark now.

    The 2023 U.S. Open champion followed up his electric Friday with an extremely impressive 66 on a windier Saturday, positioning himself firmly in the chase. Clark hit 16 of 18 greens in regulation and continued trending in the right direction statistically. For the week, Clark now ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 18th in SG: Around the Green and 19th in SG: Putting.


    Wyndham Clark hits 282-yard approach to 19 feet, sets up birdie on No. 11 at The American Express

    Wyndham Clark hits 282-yard approach to 19 feet, sets up birdie on No. 11 at The American Express


    That is a profile we can win with, especially on a course that rewards controlled ball-striking and confident putting under pressure. Perhaps more importantly, Clark looks like he has his moxie back.

    Asked whether Friday’s 64, his lowest TOUR round in 29 starts, boosted his confidence heading into Saturday, Clark didn’t hesitate.

    “It's really been good,” Clark said after his round. “As I've progressed in the off-season, both changing a little bit of equipment, working with a new coach and dialing in the putter, my game's starting to feel really good, so it was nice to see some good scores and make a lot of birdies.”

    File that under things we love to hear, or Strokes Gained: Vibes.

    If this turns into a heavyweight duel, don’t forget Clark has already proven he can win on demanding setups against elite competition. Asking him to get a bit of revenge against Scheffler for his infamous horseshoe lipout at THE PLAYERS Championship in 2023 and outlast the volatility of Si Woo Kim isn’t far-fetched, especially at double-digit odds.

    Fade: Blades Brown (+850)

    There’s no denying it, you want to bet on Blades Brown to win this tournament. And how could you not?

    The 18-year-old phenom carded a tidy 68 on the Stadium Course Saturday, mixing five birdies with just one bogey. It was a professional, composed round, even if it paled in comparison to Friday’s jaw-dropping 60. Brown did provide one last spark, closing with three straight birdies, capped by a 44-foot bomb on No. 18.


    Blades Brown’s impressive closing birdie is the Shot of the Day

    Blades Brown’s impressive closing birdie is the Shot of the Day



    The flair is real. The moment apparently isn’t too big, … yet.

    Brown ranks 12th in SG: Putting for the week, gaining more than two shots on the field with the flatstick. That’s impressive, but it’s also doing a lot of heavy lifting. His approach ranks 96th, a dangerous place to be heading into a Sunday where precision under pressure becomes non-negotiable.

    Yes, The American Express has recently launched young stars, with Nick Dunlap as the obvious example, but this is still asking a teenager to close with substantial sharks like Scheffler, Clark and Si Woo Kim circling. That’s a tall order, especially when the ball-striking doesn’t fully support the price.

    At +850, there’s not enough there to justify the sweat.

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