Is the incredible run of the longshot over?

After four weeks of triple-digit odds winners on the PGA TOUR, we are seemingly heading towards a chalkier salute at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am as world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler surged to a share of the lead. He is now the +200 favorite with BetMGM Sportsbook.

Scheffler’s 8-under 64 at Pebble Beach Golf Links moved him to 11-under for the tournament, tied for the lead with young superstar Ludvig Åberg and one of the flag flyers for longshot continuation in Thomas Detry.

Detry was +10000 to start the week despite playing reasonably well in the Farmers Insurance Open where he was contending before a 74 on Sunday left him with a T20. Now he’s +1000. Åberg was +2800 but now The RSM Classic champion is the +350 second favorite.

Lurking, despite a treadmill finish of 11 straight pars on Friday, is former FedExCup champion Patrick Cantlay. The Californian is at 10-under, just one off the lead, and looking to continue his run of good form at the venue. In his last three visits he’s finished T11 or better.

Justin Thomas is continuing to show a return to form after a downturn in 2023, tied fifth at 9-under with Emiliano Grillo and last week’s Farmers Insurance Open winner at Torrey Pines in Matthieu Pavon. A further 10 players are within four of the lead.

When we look at the latest odds from BetMGM Sportsbook below we see four proven winners at the top of the board. This makes perfect sense obviously but before we give up on someone making a run from well back, we need to check in on the forecast.

“After a morning light shower Saturday, the rest of the day will be drier with mostly cloudy skies," PGA TOUR meteorologist Stewart Williams wrote. "A low-pressure system is expected to rapidly develop bringing another round of heavy rain and windy conditions to the region Sunday with scattered showers remaining on Monday."

In other words, as the entire field returns to Pebble Beach exclusively over the weekend, we have a chance of rain early on Saturday but also benign winds (6-12 mph) before Sunday brings with it potential chaos.

A 90% chance of rain exists for Sunday with winds at 20-30 mph, including potential gusts in the 40-45 mph range. If conditions remain playable, it is going to be a battle to the finish. There is every chance someone could come from the clouds so to speak.

Tread carefully jumping in prior to Round 3 and consider waiting for just one round and the most recent forecast. But if you are looking to take a punt now, my thoughts are below.

Current Odds

• +200: Scottie Scheffler (-11, T1)
• +350: Ludvig Åberg (-11, T1)
• +600: Patrick Cantlay (-10, 4th)
• +900: Justin Thomas (-9, T5)
• +1000: Thomas Detry (-11, T1)
• +2500: Matthieu Pavon (-9, T5)
• +3000: Emiliano Grillo (-9, T5)
• +3300: Collin Morikawa (-7, T10); Keegan Bradley (-8, T8)

DRAWS

Patrick Cantlay (+600, -10, 4th)

I’m going to choose to let the slight annoyance of his last 11 holes on Friday at Pebble Beach wash over me and take the positive out of it … which is Cantlay’s odds are now a little higher than I was expecting. As my pre-tournament selection to win I’m not about to jump ship now. Three recent top 11s in this event give me renewed hope plus the fact he was well below his usual standards off the tee, a fact he can hopefully rectify in the third round. While Scheffler and Åberg’s odds are almost unactionable, Cantlay still has a little juice to squeeze.

Justin Thomas (+900, -9, T5)

I lost track of how many times Thomas saw birdie putts lip out or burn the edge so far this week. In fact, he ranked 63rd of 80 players in Strokes Gained: Putting from the Pebble Beach rounds. But as he continues his comeback, I’m a believer a few more of those putts might drop over the weekend. If he maintains his pace-setting efforts around the green (ranked first) and on approach (24th) he could make a run.

FADES

Scottie Scheffler (+200, -11, T1)

It seems every time I write this column, I’m fading the world No. 1. I want to be very clear here … I am not fading the player in this circumstance, rather the odds. With potential wild weather coming and 36 holes left to play I just cannot advocate for you to jump on Scheffler now if you didn’t already. He actually gained +2.601 strokes in putting on Friday, a stat that will lead to victory if he maintains it. But can you be that certain the Texan will? Can you be +200 certain? I can’t be. Wait one more round before deciding to jump on this guy.

Thomas Detry (+1000, -11, T1)

The man from Belgium is a seriously talented player but his game started to look shaky on Friday around the coastline at Pebble Beach. Losing strokes to the field off the tee, on approach and around the green, is not a recipe for success at Pebble. His putter kept him alive so far but with big names all around him the pressure rises.

LOTTERY PICK

Tom Hoge (+10000, -7, T10)

The former champion quietly shot 66 at Pebble Beach on Friday to move four shots off the lead. He ranked sixth in SG: Approach on the course he loves and if he can sneak his way into a close enough spot with 18 holes to go and wild weather due, he could be dangerous.