Strap in and feel the heartbeat rise, the sweat bead and the breath quicken. If Thursday’s opening round proved anything for the betting public at the 151st Open Championship it was to expect fluctuation in Hoylake!

The much talked about pot bunkers proved to be every bit as penal as predicted as countless players found themselves hitting sideways, backwards and even putting from the sand at times.

Rory McIlroy produced a fist-pump inducing par save on the last after leaving one of his shots inside a sandy grave, something that could prove pivotal in the coming days. Others weren’t so lucky.

The new tricky par-3 17th coupled with the internal OB on the par-5 18th creates a theatre finish that could make or break your tickets. And it creates opportunity for those thinking risk/reward in love betting markets.

Just the 18th hole alone saw every score from eagle 3 to quintuple bogey 10 posted Thursday. Justin Thomas had a diabolical 9. Rickie Fowler was two under sitting in the 18th fairway after a nice drive. Two OB shots later and he had to scramble for a triple-bogey 8.

McIlroy and Fowler were two of many players of note to shoot between 1 under and 1 over on Thursday – McIlroy’s even-par 71 left him five shots back of the lead.

That was held by England’s want to be local hero Tommy Fleetwood along with Argentina’s Emiliano Grillo and South African surprise packet amateur Christo Lamprecht.

Brian Harman, Antoine Rozner and Adrian Otaegui share fourth at 4 under with six players, including Max Homa and U.S. Open winner Wyndham Clark sit tied seventh at 3 under.

Jordan Spieth is part of a crew at 2 under while big names Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, Keegan Bradley, Patrick Reed and Sungjae Im are among the stars at 1 under.

Here are the latest odds via BetMGM Sportsbook.

+600: Tommy Fleetwood (-5, T1)
+700: Scottie Scheffler (-1, T19)
+1000: Rory McIlroy (Ev, T32)
+1600: Jordan Spieth (-2, T13)
+1600: Wyndham Clark (-3, T7)
+2000: Max Homa (-3, T7)
+2000: Patrick Cantlay (-1, T19)
+2000: Viktor Hovland (-1, T19)
+2200: Brian Harman (-4, T4)
+2500: Emiliano Grillo (-5, T1)
+2500: Xander Schauffele (-1, T19)
+3000: Tyrrell Hatton (Ev, T32)

As we get ready to for Friday we need to check in with the latest weather, particularly the wind forecast. The afternoon wave had a scoring average of 73.76 on Thursday, compared to the morning at 72.74. But they should have the advantage on Friday.

The wind is forecast to be 11-14 mph, gusting between 15-18 mph when play begins Friday. But it will increase throughout the morning to a steady 15-18 mph with gusts of 20-24 mph for the afternoon. In other words, those going out early better start with their foot down on the front nine.

With that in mind, the focus of my Draws will come from those with the morning opportunity. You can take it as a given that chalk will rise to the top so I’m not an advocate of expecting longshot fairytales… we can however get a little value out of big name stars.

DRAWS

Max Homa (+2000 to win)

I was not a fan of Max Homa pre-tournament but his measured performance on Thursday leads me to consider him as a value proposition in the current odds boards. Homa is known for being below average in major championships but he appeared a different man at Hoylake. He ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in SG: Approach and 24th in SG: Putting – all measures he usually does well in. He did however lose strokes to the field in SG: Around the Green, ranking 103rd. The glass half full view though is he ranks 29th on TOUR in that metric, perhaps bringing confidence he can improve while maintaining the rest of his game.

“Everybody knows my major record sucks,” six-time TOUR winner Homa said. “I think I’m not myself when I play them. Then I go to regular TOUR events, and I feel like I free up and I play great. I’m a lot more consistent. Crazy things don’t seem to happen. Today felt more like that.”

Viktor Hovland (+2000 to win)

Unlike Homa, I did like Hovland pre-tournament. His previous two Open appearances produced a T12 and T4 and he’s a better and smarter player now. Hovland has improvement in him when it comes to his Off the Tee efforts and I’m banking heavily on this because we all know it is his short game that can be a problem. If Hovland has to rely on up and downs he will fade from contention but if he can dial in his tee to green game (ranks ninth on the PGA TOUR) and pick up a few more putts (ranked 100th on Thursday) then he becomes a contender to surge in the morning wave.

Tyrrell Hatton (+3000 to win)

Might as well keep the “H” theme going and throw in England’s own Hatton. Here’s the thing – like I mentioned above – we need a risk reward attitude this week. And this one is certainly risk. But figure this – Hatton couldn’t have hit it much worse for his standards on Thursday. He ranked 93rd in the field in SG: Approach, the metric he sits 14th in on the PGA TOUR. He also putted average at 69th – down from his sixth on TOUR. His Open chances were kept alive via ranking eighth in SG: Around the Green. Now I would’ve preferred the odds sit closer to +5000, but if we are looking for a wildcard with plenty of improvement possible, the volatile Hatton presents his case.

“Got off to a nice start and then just struggled on the back nine, to be honest. Ball-striking today wasn't great. Yeah, just found it really hard. Couldn't figure it out. (But) level par isn't a bad score when I felt like I was really struggling,” Hatton said.

“You can't win the tournament today, you can only kind of lose it, and what are we, five back? Which with three rounds to go is nothing. Hopefully wake up tomorrow with a better golf swing and I'll go out there and try my best again and see what we can do.”

FADES

Scottie Scheffler (+700 to win)

Settle down… I’m not writing the world No. 1 off. But I am saying that with an afternoon tee time and a ranking of 129th in SG: Putting that the +700 number is outrageous. Scheffler has made an incredible habit of contending every week, and chances are he will again over the next three days. But this represents a wait and see scenario of I’ve ever seen one. As the lead moves away from him further in the morning and the winds increase, this number should drift, allowing you the chance to grab more value.

Tommy Fleetwood (+600 to win)

See above re: Scheffler. I am actually a believer in Fleetwood and see this as a golden opportunity for the local star to connect on a career defining win but at +600 this early on, with an afternoon tee time to come and a plethora of stars lurking behind… it’s ludicrous. At least wait for the morning wave to play out and be mindful of the winds. If no one separates themselves and you’re a believer, jump on then.

“For any tournament, you just want to get off to a fast start. It's not really been my strength recently. Started tournaments pretty slow, so to get something going today felt really good,” Fleetwood said.

“As first rounds go, that's absolutely the one you wanted, and to get off to a good start feels good.”