Like a cheetah that hasn’t hit top speed as it stalks its prey, multiple time PGA TOUR winners Scottie Scheffler and Jason Day sit intriguingly poised at the AT&T Byron Nelson.

The pair of former world No. 1s have shown glimpses of their best selves over the opening three rounds at TPC Craig Ranch, but ultimately have seen a part of their game go missing in each round.

Despite the odd hiccups, they find themselves at 14-under par in a tie for fourth, two shots back from the trio of leaders in rookie Austin Eckroat, China’s Zecheng (Marty) Dou and local Texan veteran Ryan Palmer.

Can the big names find their total package on Sunday and post a number? That’s the expectation I have as they look to chalk up another win on their resumes.

But they aren’t the only chasers who can spoil the leader’s party. There are 29 players within six shots of the trio on top and with a birdie barrage certainly possible on Sunday for those going out early… opportunity knocks for players and bettors alike.

We’ve already seen an 11-under 60 this week from Thursday, while 64 and 63 led the way the following two rounds. With around a 50 percent chance the course gets some rain overnight, the dart throwing could become even more prevalent.

Given Eckroat and Dou haven’t won on TOUR, my faith they will handle the pressure of the final group isn’t solid. Palmer, a four-time winner and local favorite, brings a little more confidence… but I’m still not prepared to back him over the talent coming from behind.

With one round to go at TPC Craig Ranch here are the updated odds to win the AT&T Byron Nelson (via BetMGM Sportsbook).

+280: Scottie Scheffler (-14, T4)

+400: Ryan Palmer (-16, T1)

+700: Austin Eckroat (-16, T1)

+700: Jason Day (-14, T4)

+750: Zecheng Dou (-16, T1)

+1100: Si Wo Kim (-14, T4)

+1200: Tyrrell Hatton (-13, T8)

Here’s a look at some of the players I’m looking to back (and oppose) in what’s shaping up to be a riveting final round in the Lone Star state.

DRAWS

SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER (+280 to win, -14 T4)

I’ve been an advocate of fading Scheffler all week until this point where we get a + number with just one round to go. Scheffler’s worst round came Saturday, an even par 71 that normally would see you out of the running at TPC Craig Ranch. But despite losing strokes Off the Tee, on Approach AND putting in the third round, he sits just two shots back and well within range of another victory.

In other words, his ‘B’ game has been enough to get him in contention. If his ‘A’ game turns up on Sunday, he may well win comfortably.

A silver lining to Scheffler’s below-average Saturday is the fact he now goes out in the third to last group and can send extra nerves through the final groups should he start quick and notch up his birdie count. His name on the leaderboard will certainly affect others.

JASON DAY (+700 to win, -14 T4)

Regular readers will know I pushed for Day as a draw after the first round and then he promptly putted terribly in round two to seemingly nix his chances of a first win since 2018. At the risk of putting a jinx on my old mate, I’m going back to the well here.

In round 1, Day lost strokes around the greens. In round 2 it was putting. And on Saturday he shot 5-under 66 despite losing shots on approach. Given the Australian has been rock-solid in all categories this season, I’m going to hold the belief he can put a round together where everything clicks.

It’s been a while since he picked up his 12th TOUR win, five years ago, but he hasn’t forgotten how to close. And he’s going in with an attacking frame of mind, figuring he needs a 65 or better on Sunday.

“It doesn't get easier, but you can handle the conditions a lot easier and handle the pressure easier,” Day said Saturday. “You can't control what a guy is going to go out there and shoot tomorrow, but you can control your attitude and your emotions and just keep pushing along and hopefully if you give yourself somewhere around the lead on the back nine on a Sunday, you never know what happens.

“That's kind of the plan for tomorrow is try and get myself into contention and see how it goes on the back side. It's a course that yields a lot of birdies, so it's kind of anyone can win, just depending on how much they want to go low. I'm thinking somewhere around the 20-mark, low 20s will probably win it.”

Si Woo Kim (+1100 to win, -14 T4)

The most intriguing odds on the board at this point belong to Kim, the winner of the Sony Open in Hawaii earlier this year. A former winner of THE PLAYERS, Kim is no stranger to taking on a tough challenge and he’s certainly a player capable of going lights out with a bunch of birdies.

Of course, the talk on Kim is he can be erratic. And that’s why you see this number. Kim could just as easily shoot 62 tomorrow as 72. But at the +1100 number this might be your risk/reward play.

FADES

RYAN PALMER (+400 to win, -16 T1)

Of the three leaders, this is the hardest one to fade, but I’m going to anyway.

Palmer’s last win came in 2019 – but that was as part of a team with current world No.1 Jon Rahm at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. His last individual win was all the way back in 2010 at the Sony Open in Hawaii.

There are reasons to like Palmer on Sunday:

He’s sleeping in his own bed.

He will have the crowd on his side.

And he’s not pre-occupied thinking ahead to next week’s PGA Championship. The AT&T Byron Nelson arguably means more to him at this point in his career then a major he knows he’s long odds to ever win.

But one metric has me spooked. Palmer ranks 39th in the field so far in Strokes Gained: Putting but he lost ground on the field Saturday AND his season rank is 169th on TOUR. As the pressure rachets up, can he find the magic on the greens to close this out?

“It's hard to win, and I'll tell you what, winning that first one, you never know if it will ever come. I don't know if I'll ever win again. It's so hard to win,” Palmer said ahead of the final round.

“But I've loved my experiences I've had when I've been in this position. I've played well. I may not have won a handful of times when I finished second, but I've been there quite often and I've played well on Sunday, just haven't gotten over that winner's hump (in a while). I'm excited. It'll be fun getting to know those guys a little bit and show them what the old guy can do.”

AUSTIN ECKROAT (+700 to win, -16 T1)

This upstart 24-year-old rookie started the event with a ho-hum 69 before scorching up the boards in the last two rounds. His 65-63 run came with 16 birdies and one double bogey as he looks to become the first graduate of the PGA TOUR University program to win on TOUR.

Eckroat has made the move on the back of lights out putting, needing just 25 and 26 putts in his last two rounds respectively. In fact, he leads the field in SG: Putting (+6.717). But will those nerves hold up as he chases a life changing result? The fact he ranks 120th on TOUR this season brings pause… as do his comments about how much is at stake come Sunday.

“It would be awesome. I mean, a lot of job security. I'm outside the top 125 right now in the FedExCup. A lot of things come with winning a PGA TOUR event, and just hoping to get that done,” Eckroat said before adding the chance to play his way in to the PGA Championship was also a carrot on his radar.

“Yes, for sure. I don't know how I can get in there. I don't know if it's only a win, but definitely be fun. Be a quick flight over to New York though. I don't mind.”

Eckroat is also ranked 17th this week in SG: Approach but his season numbers have him ranked 139th.

ZECHENG DOU (+750 to win, -16 T1)

Much like Eckroat, Marty Dou has been outperforming his season numbers considerably in the opening three rounds.

He’s ranked 46th this week in SG: Approach despite ranking 157th on the season and more alarming is the fact he has managed to sit fifth in SG: Putting despite being 195th on TOUR in the metric to this point.

Dou’s bogey-free 7-under 64 on Saturday saw him lead SG: Putting in the third round as he made 134’4” worth of putts. It’s hard to fathom he will sniff those numbers under the blowtorch of final round pressure.

While he’s a proven Korn Ferry Tour winner, Dou spoke of trying not to look at leaderboards, something that never inspires confidence in the betting community. Winners want the ball so to speak. They want to know where they stand and chase the win.

“I try not to because I don't want to think about the score too much. I know I'm playing pretty good. I don't want to like have to know who's in the lead, how much back I am to get in my head, and mess up shots,” Dou said.

“But I do think about it. It just couldn't go away because I'm not in this position that often, so hopefully it happens more through the future… I think nerves is the same thing as me playing on the Korn Ferry… You get into it and you're going to be nervous no matter what.”

One thing is for sure, it’s going to be an exciting finale. Good luck with all your picks!