Field chasing a (different) short-priced favorite in Mexico

Players are chasing a short-priced favorite at the halfway point of the Mexico Open, just maybe not the one they expected.

Defending champ Jon Rahm teed off at historically low prices, and he’s still in the odds mix despite sitting six shots off the lead. But the leader at the 36-hole mark is the man that started the week second behind Rahm – Tony Finau, last year’s runner-up who blistered Vidanta Vallarta to the tune of 65-64. He’s got a one-shot lead, four clear of everyone not named Erik van Rooyen or Brandon Wu, and at +100 he is a massive favorite to finish one spot better on the podium this time around.

Finau is a formidable leader, and Rahm is certainly not out of the mix. But the dynamic between the two means some inflated prices – and potential value – on other players in position on the leaderboard at the halfway point.

Updated odds to win Mexico Open (via BetMGM)

+100: Tony Finau

+550: Brandon Wu

+650: Jon Rahm

+900: Erik Van Rooyen

+2000: Will Gordon

+2200: Akshay Bhatia

+2800: Andrew Putnam, Eric Cole

+4000: Beau Hossler, Ben Martin

Here’s a look at some potential adds at the halfway point as well as some thoughts on the current leader, with odds via BetMGM Sportsbook:

Draws

Akshay Bhatia (-9, T4, +2200)

I think this is a great opportunity to buy in on a rising talent who has a penchant to go unconscious for several holes at a time. Bhatia closed out a second-round 65 with two birdies on his final three holes Friday to move within four shots of Finau, and this is a fine price on a player who has little to lose this weekend.

Bhatia was a runner-up in Puerto Rico and also challenged at Punta Cana, thanks in large part to a second-round 63, and is coming into his own as a TOUR player. It’s a stretch to think he would have come out on top pre-tournament, but given Rahm’s (relative) struggles and Bhatia’s strong start, suddenly it’s not so far-fetched. And the price certainly would not be available for a player of bigger name caliber at the same spot on the leaderboard.

Eric Cole (-9, T4, +2800)

I remain impressed by both Cole’s performance at the Honda Classic, when he held his own down the stretch before losing in a playoff to Chris Kirk. He’s missed three of five cuts since, though notably did finish T27 at THE PLAYERS, but I’m intrigued him having another shot at a title – and an opportunity to put the hard-learned lessons from PGA National to use.

Cole is fourth this week in SG: Approach and sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green, so the ball-striking figures are certainly there through 36 holes. He has made 11 birdies from just 26 Greens in Regulation, showcasing a solid efficiency in addition to a knack for recovery when his approaches have strayed.

Cole will need to keep his foot on the gas to catch Finau, let alone out-pace the others around him on the board. But this price may be a little higher than it should given Finau’s strong 36-hole position, and I think there’s value to be had should the leader wobble a little on Moving Day.

Fades

Tony Finau (-13, First, +100)

We’ve seen Finau play well here before. We’ve also seen him beat fields he should beat, namely last year’s back-to-back run between the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic. But this is a mighty short number for a player who isn’t exactly running away from the field and still has 36 holes to play.

The layout at Vidanta will continue to produce plenty of birdies, meaning Finau’s ceiling might be 69 or 70. But it also means that low numbers should be pretty accessible for those trying to chase him down, particularly if he stalls out a bit in the first few holes Saturday to instill a sense of hope.

Make no mistake, Finau is in great position. He and Rahm were clear-cut favorites before the opening round, and now he’s six clear of the defending champ. But it’s tough to get behind a player at this price (let alone the -165 he was trading at in the middle of the second round) given just how much golf is left to be played, even if the competition (on paper) doesn’t appear to be on the same level as the man out front. After all, that’s why they tee it up with scorecard in hand…

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