It’s Scottie Scheffler’s world, and we’re just living in it.

In six trips to Scottsdale for the WM Phoenix Open, Scheffler has gained an absurd 2.59 strokes per round over 22 rounds. Even by his lofty standards, that number stands out. The only venues where he has posted a higher strokes-gained rate are Muirfield Village and Augusta National, where he has combined for four victories.

Three other players in this field are gaining at least two strokes per round at TPC Scottsdale — Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama and Brooks Koepka — but Scheffler has clearly separated himself from the rest. This course demands elite distance control on approach, and Scheffler rarely misses a chance to hit it pin-high. He’s the best player in the world, playing elite golf, at a venue perfectly suited to his strengths. He’s +230 to win the WM Phoenix Open on the heels of his season-opening victory at The American Express.

For those interested in a Scheffler-free universe, the “Winner Without” market removes him from the equation. Despite a field loaded with top-tier talent, Maverick McNealy appears to be flying slightly under the radar. Since the start of 2025, he owns a 28.6% top-10 rate — the seventh-best mark in this field. McNealy has consistently been near the top of leaderboards but lacks a win to show for it during that stretch. His combination of approach play and putting is difficult to replicate, and his +2700 odds to win without Scheffler are enticing at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Despite the party atmosphere at TPC Scottsdale, it’s serious business inside the ropes for the players battling the Stadium Course this week. This venue demands control of every facet of a golfer’s game, with danger lurking around nearly every corner. Those with wide misses off the tee will be punished by desert terrain, awkward lies and poor angles. Six holes feature water in play, which can add a penalty stroke to the scorecard in the blink of an eye.

Statistically, approach play has long been correlated with success at this event, with a heavy emphasis on distance control. The throughline for scoring has been in the three par 5s, which will offer the most opportunities to put a red number on the board.

Making his first PGA TOUR start of 2026, Viktor Hovland will look to improve on a lackluster history at TPC Scottsdale. The Norwegian has played the course three times, missing the cut twice and finishing T42 in his most recent appearance in 2023. After dealing with a neck injury that sidelined him during the Ryder Cup, Hovland has performed well on the global stage this winter, earning three top-25 finishes on the DP World Tour. Across those three events, he gained more than 26 strokes tee-to-green, an encouraging sign heading into this week. While TPC Scottsdale has given him fits in the past, I’m setting expectations modestly with a top-20 wager (+125), available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

The nationality markets are heating up this week, and my attention goes straight to Jordan Smith in the Top UK & Irish market. Smith has played each of the first three events of the season and has been a steady ball-striker, gaining 0.722 strokes per round combined off-the-tee and on approach. With only five other players competing in this market, Smith’s ball-striking profile provides a strong floor and a realistic path to contention. He’s priced at +570 to be the Top UK & Irish player at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Few players in the world start tournaments faster than Pierceson Coody, who has gained 1.98 strokes per round over 35 opening rounds dating back to the start of 2025. Only Scottie Scheffler and Ben Griffin have posted better opening-round marks in this field. Coody has beaten the field in 12 consecutive first rounds and in 30 of his 35 starts overall. The strong play has continued through all rounds this season, as he has finished inside the top 18 in all three of his starts, including a T2 last week in La Jolla. He’s listed at +570 at DraftKings to finish inside the top 10 in Round 1.

Michael Thorbjornsen appears primed for a breakout in 2026. He was impressive last week in La Jolla, California, finishing T18 while gaining more than 4.8 strokes on the field across three rounds at the demanding South Course. Thorbjornsen possesses firepower in every area of his game; it’s simply a matter of putting it all together in the same week. FanDuel Sportsbook is offering +600 odds for him to finish inside the top 10.

It’s been a bizarre stretch for Michael Brennan since his victory at the Bank of Utah Championship last fall. In six starts since, he has just one top-50 finish and was disqualified from last week’s Farmers Insurance Open for using non-permitted, green-reading materials. Even so, TPC Scottsdale should allow Brennan to showcase his elite driving and birdie-making upside. He dominates par 5s, posting a 66.7% birdie-or-better rate — the 12th-best mark on TOUR. With three par 5s serving as the primary scoring opportunities this week, his +750 odds to finish inside the top 20 warrant consideration.

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