Scottie Scheffler is not competing in this week’s Farmers Insurance Open, but before we dive into the third tournament of the season, it’s worth reviewing his four-stroke victory at The American Express because it’s both a lesson and a warning.

Although Scheffler remains the best bet, it still was a bold decision for the 36% of gamers who rostered him at PGA WEST. He had never won the tournament or prevailed in his season debut, and it was a shootout with fantasy scoring to match, so the potential for the trust to backfire was above average.

Instead, that 36% segment is now in a position of strength with his victory on the books. For all gamers who designated him as their captain, which should be all of the 36%, he totaled 310 points. That includes twice the 50 FedExCup bonus points for the title. Season-long league championships eventually cite outcomes like that one.

The moral of the matter is that I tip my visor to the early leaders as I stick to my plan, as you should yours. It’s a long season and a good chunk of that 36% will squander what it gained just as we will chip away at our deficits with well-timed investments and a little luck. But also remember and respect that 36% with the dub already on the board and who still have two starts for Scheffler to burn. Game on!

Now, on to Torrey Pines.

While Brooks Koepka appears in a PGA TOUR event as a member for the first time in four years, do not lose focus on the traditional strategy across the first two rounds of the Farmers. (You’ll find my analysis on the season debut for the five-time major champion below.)

Because the weather will be ideal, scoring on the North Course should be about 2.5 strokes lower than that on the South. As a result, PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf gamers must maximize starts on the easier track.

There are two combinations to which to adhere for your template so that six of your combined eight starts in the first two rounds are on the North.

The first model is to load four golfers from one side of the draw and two from the other. If all peg it on the North in the first round, then that’s when they should be your starters. Likewise, if they play the North in the second round, that’s when you pounce. The two in the other draw will play the North on the opposite day, so you’re left only to determine which of your first four will get the call on the South in that same round, but because one should be your captain by default, it’s ultimately a choice among the remaining three.

The other option is to split your roster so that you have three on both sides of the draw. This means that you’ll score on the North three times in both of the first two rounds while needing to pick just one on the South each day, one of whom should be your captain. This flexibility is nice when you’re torn between a couple of options that also might test your conviction to long-range roster management, because if you follow my advice, you’ll be burning a start for all six in your lineup.

As for which days you want the North this week, it’s unlikely to matter in the macro. Conditions are expected to be almost identical on Thursday and Friday. And because the entire field will be going out on split tees on both courses just two hours apart, the tiebreaker is to lean on the North in the opening round. Greens likely will be slightly more receptive early in the tournament and there won’t be as much pressure to perform to make the cut.

Lastly, just a note to live bettors in the outright market, the last nine winners of the Farmers scored a sub-70 on their lone round on the North Course and six of the last seven opened the tournament on it. That second trend is wild because it follows a run of eight consecutive editions when the winner cycled through the North in the second round.

Captain

Jason Day … It’s been a minute since it’s felt like he’s been chalk but that applies at the Farmers where he’s behind only Tiger Woods and Brandt Snedeker on the tournament’s all-time earnings list. He wasn’t an automatic No. 1 in my Power Rankings, but he is the most deserving.

Other considerations

• Xander Schauffele ... The No. 3 in my Power Rankings is a 1a for this role. In fact, he’s arguably the safer choice simply because of Day’s inconsistency by comparison. If you care for intangibles, even though Schauffele ended 2025 with victory at the Baycurrent Classic, you know that he’s hungry to burst out of the gates and make noise throughout 2026.
• Hideki Matsuyama ... Ryan Gerard is No. 2 in my Power Rankings but his current heater trumps the kind of course experience and success that Matsuyama (No. 4) has in spades, and that’s more valuable when considering their respective floors. Matsuyama also is only a month removed from his win at the Hero World Challenge.

Rounding out the roster

In full disclosure, I built this lineup before tee times were announced, so it’s subject to change so that I follow my instructions above. When the draw is released, I’ll be building around the anchors of Day and Schauffele.

My starters

• Jason Day (C)
• Ryan Gerard
• Chris Gotterup
• Xander Schauffele

My bench

• Taylor Pendrith (1)
• Ludvig Åberg (2)

Careful

For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings which is not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out who demands pause and why.

• Brooks Koepka ... At last check, he was rostered by 29.3% of gamers. That slots him as sixth-most in ownership percentages. On largely poor course history alone, that’s an aggressive move, so the sensible call is to give him a week to reacclimate to the feels of the PGA TOUR. Despite his time away, he’s been around long enough to warrant inclusion in future possibilities below. I dig the fervor for the shiny, new (but familiar) toy, but chances like this are unnecessary this early in the season.
• Cameron Young ... After my full-membership fantasy ranking was released in December, he was among the golfers for whom many readers thought was too low at No. 22. I explained that I’d like a larger sample size than his torrid conclusion to 2025, which was behind the recency bias among the critics, and he was chasing a spot on the Ryder Cup (where he also played very well). Now separate from it, even though he’s No. 9 in my Power Rankings (out of respect for the absence of a negative for months), my concern at Torrey Pines is that he misses too many fairways and greens relative to others, and his strength as a putter is neutralized a bit by smaller greens. Wait until next week when he can air it out at TPC Scottsdale and put his primary weapon to work on its larger targets.
• Patrick Cantlay ... If all golfers performed like the eight-time PGA TOUR winner throughout a season, there would be nothing but co-champions in fantasy leagues. That’s because he’s one of the most predictable among the elite because course history is a significant factor. At Torrey Pines, he finished T15 at the 2021 U.S. Open, but he’s just 2-for-4 and without a top 50 in the Farmers.
• Marco Penge ... It’s an exciting time for the 27-year-old from England. He’s making his PGA TOUR membership debut as the leader among his fellow DP World Tour qualifiers, thanks in large part to a trio of victories among five podium finishes on his home circuit in 2025. The message here is simple: He’s one of the longest hitters in the field but he’s splashing on what was the hardest track last year on the PGA TOUR and where he has no experience. Use this week for observation before slotting him in fantasy or devoting even a fraction of a unit on your betting card.

Future possibilities

NOTE: This section consists of notables in this week’s field for whom more than three starts may be considered in Segment 1 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. Golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple tournaments are listed (e.g., “1” for strongest, “2” for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change throughout Segment 1 no matter how many tournaments remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment.

• Ludvig Åberg ... Farmers (1); Pebble Beach (2); Arnold Palmer (3)
• Keegan Bradley ... Farmers (3); Arnold Palmer (1)
• Patrick Cantlay ... Pebble Beach (3); Genesis (1)
• Si Woo Kim ... WM Phoenix (2); Pebble Beach (1); PLAYERS (3)
• Brooks Koepka ... WM Phoenix (1); Cognizant (2)
• Hideki Matsuyama ... Farmers (6); WM Phoenix (1); Genesis (3); Arnold Palmer (5); PLAYERS (4)
• Maverick McNealy ... WM Phoenix (1); Pebble Beach (2); Genesis (3)
• Justin Rose ... Farmers (2); Pebble Beach (1)
• Xander Schauffele ... Farmers (3); WM Phoenix (1); Genesis (2); PLAYERS (4)
• Cameron Young ... WM Phoenix (2); Genesis (1); Cognizant (3); Arnold Palmer (4)

Returning to competition

• Rico Hoey ... Called it quits during his second round of The American Express with an illness. However, that might be the kind of cover that you want, not that an 0-for-2 record at Torrey Pines isn’t enough for the meek. His form to conclude 2025 was outstanding and his profile as a world-class ball-striker is a perfect fit for the test. Consider that Luke List is a recent winner here (2022). At their best, Hoey and List could be confused as the same golfer on paper. Smaller greens on the South Course benefit ball-strikers and allow bad putters a bona fide shot to win.
• Luke Clanton ... The notion that a new season would provide an immediate injection of hope into the early trajectory for the 22-year-old opened with a missed cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He then withdrew before his second round of The American Express due to illness. So, he’s now gone 15 starts as a professional without a top 25. But as odd as it seems, perhaps this week’s tough test could bring the pack back to him. He placed T15 in his debut at Torrey Pines last year, but he’s not advised in any format.

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