There might still be more than half the contest to go, but if you go by the odds board, Ludvig Åberg is your Farmers Insurance Open winner.

Much like when Scottie Scheffler found his way to the top of leaderboards last season, Åberg is considered a near certainty to win by the oddsmakers, sitting at +170 with 36 holes on a brutal Torrey Pines South Course still to come.

The Swede is a worthy favorite having blitzed the North Course on Wednesday with a 63 before surviving a windswept South Course on Thursday, albeit in 3-over 75.

With gusts pushing 30 mph, strong enough to cease play at one point and leave us without a fully completed second round, Åberg is the co-leader in the clubhouse at 6-under with Lanto Griffin. Griffin’s 72 on the South was ultra impressive.

While Griffin is tied at the top, he is still +1200 via FanDuel Sportsbook. It is Sungjae Im, at +650, who is the closest contender according to the handicappers, sitting two shots adrift the lead at 4 under. Rookie Danny Walker is third alone at 5-under, while Hayden Springer and Chris Gotterup join Im at 4-under.

Gotterup, along with Jason Day and Jackson Suber, were the only three players to finish a second round in the 60s. It moved Gotterup 61 places up the leaderboard, while Suber jumped 86 places to T14 (2-under) and former two-time winner Day jumped 91 spots to T26 (1-under).

While a handful of groups are yet to finish to finalize a cut, it appears that will fall at 1-over, meaning everyone who has two rounds to play at the South Course will be within seven shots of the lead. The wild winds are forecast to drop for Friday’s third round, but there is a strong chance they could return for Saturday’s final round, along with cooler temperatures and chance of rain.

And as such – while Åberg certainly is on track for a possible second TOUR win – you cannot count your chickens on this brute of a course. If Thursday showed us anything, it is danger lurks on the South.

The current FanDuel Sportsbook odds are as follows:

• +175: Ludvig Åberg (-6, T1)
• +650: Sungjae Im (-4, T4)
• +1200: Lanto Griffin (-6, T1)
• +1800: Luke Clanton (-3 thru 16, T7)
• +2000: Hideki Matsuyama (-1, T26)
• +2500: Danny Walker (-5, third)
• +3000: Chris Gotterup (-4, T4); Harris English (-3, T7); Eric Cole (-3, T7)
• +3500: Jason Day (-1, T26)

As I said above, I still like the pre-tournament favorite and my less-than-risky choice of Åberg to win this thing. But I would not advocate jumping on now at these odds. The Swede struggled a bit with his putter on Thursday and will need to tidy that up. His advantage off the tee, though, is likely to prove pivotal in the coming days.

But if you like the idea of getting big odds on the chasers, let’s look at the most likely contenders from this point. We need to identify who can make inroads during what should be calmer conditions.

Luke Clanton +1800 outright, +300 Top 5

The amateur standout is chasing a TOUR card should he find his way to the top five by weeks end, and he’s just brash and talented enough to do it. While he’s sitting in the rough on the right of the 17th hole, he gets to return in calmer morning conditions to hopefully grind out a par, and then potentially birdie the par-5 18th to get within two of the lead ahead of the third round. At this stage, Clanton is inside the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and SG: Putting.

Sungjae Im +650

Im was T6 and T4 in 2022 and 2023 at Torrey Pines, so he’s no stranger to contention here. The Korean is also coming off a recent third-place finish at The Sentry. At his best, he is a methodical ball striker, so if he can keep things on track – and avoid big numbers – he’s poised to sneak on up.

Jason Day +3500

I know those who know me will call bias on this, but Day was one of my outright picks pre-tournament for a reason. Obviously being a two-time champion in the event helps, but so, too, does the tough conditions. It is what the Aussie relishes here. Both his wins opened with over-par rounds and fightbacks. They came when the South had teeth, and the winning score stayed at 10 under. He no doubt has a long road to climb but after finishing third at the American Express last week, he’s in good form. Will need his putter – which was cold on the South on Wednesday – to heat up.

Hideki Matsuyama +2000

Starting on the same score as Day, but not getting the same juice is the recent Sentry winner, who has four top-13 finishes at Torrey Pines on his resume. Thursday was a rough one for Matsuyama, dropping three shots on the North Course after a very solid start on the South. It's the 68 from Wednesday, though, that could give his fans some hope of a fightback. Like Day, he’s going to need to make a significant move Friday. But if he does, he will give Åberg and others something to think about.

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