MONTREAL – Eyerolls. Laughter. Straight-up derision.

This is what you come to expect as a proud and parochial International Team fan ahead of the Presidents Cup. Captain Trevor Immelman and his players have heard it all as well.

Apparently, they can’t win. The bookmakers at BetMGM Sportsbook have the U.S. Team as a 6.5-point favorite in a 30-point contest and if you listen to most pundits in the media center, it’s not enough.

Above is the opening to my column ahead of the 2022 Presidents Cup. Two years later, I could write the same words and simply slot Mike Weir’s name as International Team captain – adding that the U.S. Team is “only” a 3.5-point favorite in the eyes of oddsmakers.

If you want to back the Americans this time around, you need to put out $250 for every $100 you hope to profit at their -250 odds. At least it’s better than the -700 price from Quail Hollow Club, where the U.S. ultimately won 17.5-12.5.

Even with a home venue in The Royal Montreal Golf Club, the oddsmakers (and just about everyone you speak to this week) give the International Team little chance in the chase for their first win in 26 years – and those prognosticators have fair ammunition to point to.

The U.S. Team’s 12-1-1 lead in the biennial competition is daunting, to say the least. The lone International Team win came in Australia in 1998, and the lone tie came in South Africa in 2003. It’s been two decades since the Internationals have had some success.

The 12 American players have combined for 71 PGA TOUR wins, 20 more than the 51 from the Internationals. Three players combine for 37 of the International wins, and three of them have yet to win on TOUR. All the Americans have won, and 11 of them have won at least three times. In the last two years, the U.S. players have 22 TOUR wins, the Internationals just seven.

The U.S. Team has an average world ranking of 12.42, with all players inside the top 25 and three of the top four players in the world. For the International side, the average world ranking is 34.42, with just one top 10 player and four inside the top 25.

Seven Americans sit in the top 15 on TOUR in 2024 in Strokes Gained: Total compared to just one for the Internationals.

So with all that laid out, is there any reason to consider the +260 price for an International win?

“We don't feel too much like the underdogs. I think we have an amazing group,” said Canadian Corey Conners. “I would definitely say the U.S. has our number here… (but) we're motivated to try and change that.”

While Adam Scott has been on every team since 2003 and Jason Day and Hideki Matsuyama also have multiple scars from heavy losses, the rest of the team is still young – and plenty motivated to change the narrative.

“We've got a lot of young guys on the team, and they're not remembering past defeats or anything like that,” Weir said. “I guess they hear it from you all and they read about it, but they're not very focused on that.

“(Our record) it's just a fact, just dealing with reality. I think that's the thing for me, even as a player myself, trying to deal with reality and what's in front of you. No doubt, that's what's in front of us … So we've got a tall challenge, but the guys are up for it, they're ready for it, and they're embracing that.”

The U.S. Team knows the dangers of an underdog. They make movies about them. Who would have guessed Nick O’Hern would beat prime Tiger Woods in match play – twice!

In the land of hockey, they all know the story of the 1980 U.S. Olympic Team, who took on the might of the Soviet Union professionals who had won five of the last six Olympic Gold Medals. The Americans won.

“Everyone loves an underdog story. Some people love to be an underdog,” said Collin Morikawa. “We know it. We know that everyone is kind of looking at us and we got a target on our back.”

“I'd rather be the favorite. But lack of expectation is usually a benefit for an underdog or can be,” warned Patrick Cantlay.

Cantlay, who forms a tough team to beat with Xander Schauffele in teams’ events, knows the key for the favored U.S. Team will be getting off to a hot start in Thursday’s Four-ball session, where five matches will take place. At Quail Hollow, the Americans won the first session 4-1 and were never challenged from there.

“If you get momentum early as a favorite, it can be demoralizing, especially if you put a bunch of red up on the board in the first session or early in the first session,” Cantlay said.

Benny's betting card

• Best set: Internationals Day 1: +200
• Exact score: Internationals 15.5-14.5 +1000
• Top U.S. points scorer: Xander Schauffele +400
• Top International point scorer: Si Woo Kim +850

So let’s get down to brass tax.

As much as I’d like to advocate an outright bet on the International Team, it’s not a smart play. In fact, the outright markets might just be something to avoid altogether. But this doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be had on the team sporting black and yellow.

Their best format is the Four-ball, which Weir has slated for Thursday. They’ll need to win the session to have a chance and are motivated to do so.

At +200 to win day one, there is a chance to strike. But by the same token, the U.S. has dominated Foursomes. So the -150 for the U.S. to win Day 2 is actionable, given the U.S. leads that format by a whopping 56.5-23.5 margin since 2007.

Other markets to focus on include the Top Points Scorer, both on each team and overall. Personally, I like Schauffele (+400) for the U.S. and Si Woo Kim (+850) for the Internationals given their success in recent team competitions.

It is important to remember not every member of each team will play every session, so the key is finding players you expect to play the most, and of course win.

You can try to predict the exact score. A 17-13 win for the U.S. is the betting favorite at +1000. If the International Team really is on your radar for a win, you’d assume it would be a close win. Is it therefore smarter to look at Internationals 15.5-14.5 or 16-14 at +1400 and +1600, respectively, rather than the +240 outright?

And then, of course, you can attack the individual matches. These we won’t know until the evening before play but rest assured Golfbet will bring you analysis and picks ahead of each match.

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