Bolton: Navigating the transition from Augusta National to Harbour Town

This is the second twinbill of the season, so both the RBC Heritage and the Corales Puntacana Championship are treated with varied levels of attention on this page. With only Nicolai Højgaard making the trip from the Masters to the Dominican Republic, the narrative for how guys will transition from the season’s first major to Harbour Town Golf Links is primary.

Of the 69 in the field on Hilton Head Island, 54 made the short journey from Augusta, Georgia. Many have done exactly this before but with the looming hammer of a traditional cut at the RBC Heritage, this year all will play the weekend.

While it’s always unfair to haphazardly point fingers at guys who you expect to have a hangover, proverbial or otherwise, despite the guaranteed payday and increased FedExCup points distribution, there are guys for whom the vibe feels off based on how they present to us under customary circumstances.

Your only sense of the guys on whom I’m cool is by omission among the endorsements across my preview material. While that never solely translates into an automatic fade for lots of reasons, and because of the absence of a market for a missed cut for obvious reasons, I’m compelled to list the notables that I’ve identified as an outcome of this phenomenon. In alphabetical order, they are Sam Burns, Jason Day, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Max Homa, Tom Kim and Justin Thomas. Consider pivoting to others who have received my stamp of approval.

Weather

RBC Heritage

Since my first look at what’s in store in Monday’s Power Rankings, an increased chance for afternoon rain and thunderstorms now exists during the first two rounds.

Since everyone is going off the first hole in twosomes (after Alejandro Tosti races out as a single with the first tee time in the opening round), there isn’t a traditional early-late draw. However, scoring across the first two rounds should be even for all with Friday’s flip.

Meanwhile, a comparable bump in the expectation for inclement conditions on Sunday introduces the notion of making adjustments for the conclusion. As always, our greatest impact will be with how winds could influence live betting.

Corales Puntacana Championship

Not much has changed in the 24 hours since my Power Rankings were published on Tuesday, but the timing of some energy expected to generate rain showers later on Sunday has been shifted to earlier in the day. In theory, winds could freshen as they encroach, but there’s not enough of a problem in advance to rule anyone out even if you’re the most selective of investors.

Winds will be omnipresent throughout, so composure and patience step forward as unquantifiable weapons.

Power Rankings Wild Card

Rory McIlroy (+125 = Top 10) … Get a load of this: I received zero complaints on X between Scottie Scheffler not at No. 1 in the Power Rankings for the RBC Heritage and the exclusion of McIlroy. Perhaps it was Masters fatigue. Whatever the case, McIlroy hasn’t seen Harbour Town since it was the second tournament in the PGA TOUR's return from COVID-19 in June of 2020. It was an up-and-down week but he did finish with three red numbers, including a second-round 65. He won the Hero Dubai Desert Classic three months ago but hasn’t made much noise in the U.S., save a solo third at the Valero Texas Open two weeks ago, and he hasn’t been a regular at TPC San Antonio, either. That you’re getting plus value for a mere top 10 is worth a full unit for a guy who isn’t showing any significant reasons to lean away from the firepower.

Other notables

Emiliano Grillo (+650 = Top 10) … It only appears aggressive relative to others grouped with him here, but he makes this easy for us. When he’s in a groove, you can bet that his putter is cooperating. He’s among the most efficient from tee to green but he’s currently a lofty 23rd in Strokes Gained: Putting, T23 in putts per Green in Regulation and 18th in one-putt percentage. That Harbour Town hides bad putters is a fact, but that it can lift a sharpshooter like him who’s not currently a bad putter is reason enough for this hope. What’s more, he connected for a T2 in 2021 and a T7 last year in the tournament.

Harris English (+150 = Top 20) … The rangy veteran isn’t getting a lot of attention in the mainstream, but he’s manufacturing a very fine season not to mention a lucrative one for bettors. He has two top 10s and another five top 25s in 10 starts, all the while relying on vintage ball-striking. Of course, he’s also paying it off with terrific putting, so he’s been the total package. I wouldn’t talk you out of a Top 10 at +375, but he projects for just outside that bubble, which is fine given the kickback for this finish in a limited field.

Chris Kirk (+160 = Top 20) … Like his fellow University of Georgia product, English, Kirk has been impressive in 2024. The difference is that he picked off a victory at The Sentry and eventually went six consecutive starts without a top 25 until a T16 at the Masters (for which he was my irrelevant Outright in Sleepers). He’s also been threading it from tee to green – that’s nothing new – and he’s T2 on the PGA TOUR in par-4 scoring. With only one top 20 baked into a 7-for-12 record at Harbour Town (T7, 2021), this is the right reach.

Sahith Theegala (+110 = Top 20) … In Tommy Fleetwood’s capsule in Tuesday’s Sleepers, I shared that my short list for Monday’s Power Rankings consisted of 19. Theegala was one of the four I trimmed to fit the circle in the round hole, so I’m not surprised that he’s just better than even money for this finish. He posted a T5 in his second appearance here last year and has been a top-20 machine before and since. He loves to visualize shots, so it’s reasonable to consider that Harbour Town will shape into a personal playground over the years.

Tap-ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• PARLAY: Matt Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood (+700 = Both Finish Inside the Top 10)
• PARLAY: Chris Kirk and J.T. Poston (+600 = Both Finish Inside the Top 20)
• Cam Davis (+110 = Top Australian)
• Matt Fitzpatrick (+130 = Top English)
• Shane Lowry (+180 = Top Irish)
• Matthieu Pavon (+170 = Top 20)

Returning to competition

RBC Heritage

Patrick Rodgers (+200 = Top 30) … While he withdrew during his last start at the Valero Texas Open after one round for personal reasons, the good news is that an injury wasn’t cited. It dropped him into a 1-for-4 skid with a T74 in Houston, but he’s gone through too many stretches like that in his career to count. So, given his precision on approach and T19 here last year, work him onto your card for this prop.

Corales Puntacana Championship

Trace Crowe … The PGA TOUR rookie via Q-School rose 11 spots to 29th in the reorder of his category at the conclusion of the Valero Texas Open where he withdrew after one round with an injured knee. He’s just 2-for-7 on the season, but he’s shown that the kind of putting he put on display on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 plays in the big leagues. It’s the rest of the game that needs tightening.

Notable WDs

RBC Heritage

Viktor Hovland … The 2023 FedExCup had telegraphed his process in detail ahead of the Masters, and it wasn’t inspiring. He went on to fulfill his prop to miss the cut in this space at +275. It extinguished a streak of consecutive paydays worldwide that extended 21 months. He resets at 85th in the FedExCup.

Corales Puntacana Championship

Davis Riley … The decision to rest promises two full weeks in advance of his title defense with Nick Hardy at next week’s Zurich Classic of New Orleans. (Hardy has remained in the field at Corales.) Riley’s only top 50 among four cuts made in 11 starts in 2024 was a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, so the return to something positive in New Orleans is timely for many reasons.

Chesson Hadley … Back in a lull with four straight missed cuts since THE PLAYERS Championship. He already finds a way to survive, but he’s still best utilized in the depths of full-season fantasy rosters.

Matt Kuchar … He was poised to make his debut at Corales, instead it’s his first early withdrawal since the Shriners Children’s Open in the fall of 2022. After a fruitful FedExCup Fall, the 45-year-old has cashed just twice in nine tries in 2024, neither time for a top 35.

Cameron Champ … Flashed the kind of scintillating form in the FedExCup Fall that couldn’t be ruled out as a product of the "Nappy Factor" – his wife delivered their first child last summer – but it’s been a struggle in 2024. He’s just 3-for-10 and 144th in the FedExCup.

Ben Taylor … While fully exempt for finishing among the top 125 in the FedExCup last season, perhaps you’ve noticed that he’s been among or the longest among the outrights on the board. That’s because he’s 1-for-10 with a T64 at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Kramer Hickok … Hasn’t played in 2024 and also withdrew early from the first Additional Event in Puerto Rico, but if he was going to make his season debut, Corales made sense. He’s 4-for-4 in the tournament with a T10 among three top 25s. No news has surfaced to explain his time off and he’s been silent on social media.

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