Opportunity knocks for players and bettors at Sanderson Farms

Look, I get it. When we come off such a huge week, like we just did at the Ryder Cup, it can be hard to find the vigor and fervor for a FedExCup Fall event like this week’s Sanderson Farms Championship.

But to dismiss the action coming from the Country Club of Jackson in Mississippi would be to let go of an opportunity to connect on the next wave of PGA TOUR talent and to, perhaps, grab a betting victory at odds you may not see again.

Ahead of the FedExCup Fall opener in Napa, California, at the Fortinet Championship, avid fans would know we tipped you off to the winner in Sahith Theegala and a top five from Eric Cole. We also projected Matt Kuchar in the top 10 and Brendon Todd in the top 40.

These are opportunity weeks for players to grab their first win or gain status for next season. They are also opportunity weeks for you, the bettor.

Before we get started – a word on European rookie star Ludvig Åberg – who is the clear betting favorite at +1200 with BetMGM: While he clearly has the talent to win this week, and deserves his favoritism, I won’t be advocating for the Swede.

While winning the Ryder Cup will no doubt give Åberg a huge confidence injection, the subsequent celebrations before a cross Atlantic trip will undoubtably take some toll on him. While he’s young enough to bounce back quickly, it’s hard to know if his full focus will be in Mississippi. As such, I’d be waiting until after the first round before making any betting plays on this star.

Last year Mackenzie Hughes claimed the title in Jackson, ranking inside the top 15 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Approach, Around-the-Green and Putting. Sam Burns reigned in 2022 leading the field in SG: Tee-to-Green and Off-the-Tee and ranking second in SG: Approach.

The only winner of the last nine events here to not be inside the top 12 of SG: Tee-to-Green was Peter Malnati in 2016. Only two of the last nine champions were outside the top 14 in SG: Putting. Given they both came in the last three years, I’m going to skew my thinking heavier on the tee-to-green game.

I’m going to play the momentum card this week. Even though it’s been a few weeks since the Fortinet Championship, I am going to lean on some solid players from Napa.

OUTRIGHTS

The first name to pop out on the BetMGM Sportsbook board for me was S.H. Kim (+3300). He was a runner up at the Fortinet Championship recently and ranked second in SG: Tee-to-Green in that event. Add to that a solid T13 in Jackson in 2022 and he’s starting to pop in my thinking.

Even without the form, Kim is a player I expect all golf fans are going to learn more about in the next 12 months. Having turned 25 as he posted his runner up finish in Napa, this is another Korean star in the making. It’s a tough ask for a player currently in his rookie season but don’t be surprised if he pushes for an International Presidents Cup team berth in the next 10 months.

Another to consider is Eric Cole (+2000). I swear he was on my radar BEFORE Rob Bolton revealed his spot atop this week’s Power Rankings, but that certainly helps to reinforce the thinking! Cole led the field at Fortinet in SG: Tee-to-Green on his way to a fourth-place finish. He’s a fighter and likely Rookie of the Year winner. At 35, he’s not a young rookie, but he plays like he knows he cannot take his place on TOUR for granted. I love that about him. It also helps he ranks 12th on TOUR in SG: Putting.

PLACE MARKETS

If you prefer to dabble in the top five, 10, 20 or 40 markets, I’ve got a few more names for you to ponder. I like each of these players across the four markets, so don’t feel you need to stick exclusively to the recommendation.

Top 5: You might be excused if you thought Sam Ryder (+750) was coming off the Ryder Cup given his frequency on the telecast (in the commercials), but he is actually coming off a T14 at the Fortinet Championship where he ranked first in SG: Approach and third in SG: Tee-to-Green. His putter let him down in Napa, but he ranks 12th on the season in SG: Putting and was 18th in SG: Putting in Jackson a year ago.

Top 10: England’s Callum Tarren (+375) will likely be sporting a mental boost after the Ryder Cup result, but it was his T7 at Fortinet where he ranked first in SG: Off-the-Tee that has caught my attention.

Top 20: Birdie machine Stephan Jaeger (+100) represents a great “safety play” this week in my mind as a top-20 play. While you won’t get huge odds, you can still, perhaps, build your bank. I fully expect Jaeger to be a contender, so if you want to be more aggressive, I wouldn’t argue. He ranks 21st this season in SG: Tee-to-Green, the second best of those in the field behind Kevin Yu.

Top 40: It’s almost baffling to me that the South African Erik van Rooyen is a plus money option for a top-40 finish. I know he’s struggled since winning in 2021, but with his recent form turnaround he’s almost too good to ignore. The turnaround will come. His T30 at the Fortinet Championship came after two top 20s on the DP World Tour.

LONGSHOT

Just on pure talent alone, don’t sleep on Akshay Bhatia (+5000). He’s already proven he can win at this level and strikes me as a young player who would be buoyed from watching team golf last week.

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