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Statistically Speaking: Better go low or you’ll bust in Vegas

3 Min Read

Golfbet News

    Written by Mike Glasscott @MikeGlasscott

    All-time shots from the TOUR Championship

    Get hot, stay hot! If you are looking for the numbers to send you somewhere ahead of your fantasy and gaming needs this week you have to know going low is the only option at TPC Summerlin in the Shriners Children’s Open.

    This very familiar Par-71 at 7,255 yards is known for notching up birdies and eagles when we get calm desert skies and velvet-like Bentgrass greens and with limited wind in the forecast get ready for the roars from the Vegas faithful.

    The recipe here is to keep the ball in the fairway and attack flags on the ample 7,400 square foot targets. Hot putters also will factor as most will paint the large green complexes.

    Scoring is not optional this week:

    • Of the previous 13 winners, 10 have posted 20-under or better.
    Tournament scoring record is 24-under posted three times, including last year.
    Last three seasons have produced 134 bogey free rounds.
    43 players 10-under or better last year.
    56 players 10-under or better 2020.
    60 players 10-under or better 2019.

    Let's look back at what past champions have used to excel at TPC Summerlin

    Key Statistics

    Only players listed are competing this week; click stat headline for additional players; Stats from 2021-22 completed season.

    As we saw above, rounds in the 70s need not apply. You got to push your chips all in here. You must score to win! TPC Summerlin has ranked in the top nine easiest courses the last three seasons. Those of you who are curious for KFT graduates stats please click here and navigate.

    T3Tom Hoge
    6Keith Mitchell
    T7Brian Harman
    T7Adam Svensson
    10Sungjae Im
    T13Denny McCarthy
    T13Aaron Wise
    T15Adam Hadwin
    T15Maverick McNealy
    T15JT Poston
    T15Andrew Putnam

    Hitting GIR and converting chances has been the hallmark of previous champions. Of the last seven, six have ranked T12 or better. Score, score and score!

    4Patrick Cantlay
    6Vince Whaley
    10Lucas Herbert
    12Maverick McNealy
    13Cam Davis
    14Danny Lee
    25Rory Sabbatini
    28Peter Malnati
    T32Keith Mitchell

    Of the last six winners four have ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in this category. The outlier was Kevin Na who checked in at No. 55. All he did is roll in 558 feet of putts, a ShotLink era record. Hard to replicate that!

    9Sungjae Im
    14Patrick Cantlay
    16Mito Pereira
    20Chris Kirk
    24Max Homa
    25Aaron Wise
    29Keith Mitchell
    30Martin Laird
    33Tom Hoge
    34Gary Woodland

    Circle birdies. Double circle eagles. Last year there were 74 eagles, the most on one course on TOUR since 2019. Chances to get low everywhere need to be taken! The cut here the last three seasons has been 5-under, 7-under and 5-under! The more, the merrier and a better chance for the weekend!

    5Patrick Cantlay
    13Maverick McNealy
    19Vince Whaley
    22Aaron Wise
    24Sungjae Im
    27Cam Davis
    28Taylor Pendrith
    29Emiliano Grillo
    31Keith Mitchell

    The Bottom Line

    With the above key stats in mind, it’s not hard to see why Patrick Cantlay tops the betting markets (+700) and costs the most in DFS. He’s a former champion and has finished no lower than T8 in four starts. Of 16 rounds, seven are 65 or better.

    Defending champion Sungjae Im (+1200) also features heavily in key stats as does Maverick McNealy.

    Don’t sleep on Keith Mitchell. He’s on all four lists above and sits at +4600 to win the tournament.

    As always don’t forget to also look at Horses for Courses, and Rob Bolton’s Sleepers for extra value and the Power Rankings for the top of the board considerations.

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