Players poised to crack the top 125 in the FedExCup

Eleven months of competition culminates this weekend at the Wyndham Championship, the final event of the 2020-2021 PGA TOUR regular season.

While several of the tournament favorites this week in Greensboro have long since locked up their spot in the postseason, for many, this presents the final opportunity to make a move to secure a berth at THE NORTHERN TRUST.

RELATED LINKS: Twenty First Group | FedExCup Standings

Last year, three players moved from outside the top-125 into the Playoffs with their performances at Sedgefield Country Club: Jim Herman, Zach Johnson and Shane Lowry. That was on par with the average to move into the top-125 the last six years, as 18 players have done it total in that span. The most movement we have seen in the final event of the season is five players, done on three different occasions (2008, 2009 and 2015).

Twenty First Group predictive modeling says that 113 players have a 99.9% chance or greater of advancing to the postseason. There are 17 players with between a 20 and 80 percent chance of moving on – many of which begin this week behind the top-125 barrier.

After running 10,000 simulations of this week’s Wyndham Championship, taking into account current player form, course fit and other key statistics, here are the five players with the best chance to make the leap from outside the top-125 into playoff position this weekend in North Carolina.

Scott Piercy

Current FedExCup Rank: 126
Top-125 Probability: 46.5%

Currently just one spot out of the Playoffs, TFG projects that Scott Piercy has a better than 46 percent chance to qualify for his seventh consecutive PGA TOUR postseason. Just a week ago, Piercy sat in 144th in the points race, but a third place finish at the Barracuda Championship vaulted the veteran up the standings. It was his first top-ten finish on the TOUR in nearly 18 months.

Piercy has some strong course history at Sedgefield, having made the cut in each of his last six starts in Greensboro. Since 2016, he has gained more than half-a-stroke on the field tee-to-green, per round, at this event. Piercy’s best Wyndham Championship finish was a tie for eighth place in 2010.

Rickie Fowler

Current FedExCup Rank: 130
Top-125 Probability: 39.1%

Earlier this season, Rickie Fowler was granted a special exemption into the PGA Championship. While the decision was somewhat controversial at the time, Fowler made the most of the opportunity, finishing in a tie for eighth place at Kiawah Island. With murmurs about his exemption audible, Rickie posted his best worldwide finish in 17 months.

While that week featured one type of pressure, this week will present a more omnipresent form of it. Currently five spots out of the top-125, Fowler has less than a forty percent chance of advancing to THE NORTHERN TRUST. Fowler has never missed the postseason in his PGA TOUR career, having qualified every year since 2010.

A closing 65 at The Open Championship, followed by an opening 64 at the 3M Open, had Fowler backers excited for a late-season surge. But Rickie failed to break 70 in any of the last three rounds in Minnesota, and finished tied for 34th. Fowler’s only previous career start at this event was in 2016, when he finished tied for 22nd. Will he answer the bell once more?

Tommy Fleetwood

Current FedExCup Rank: 136
Top-125 Probability: 37.6%

With top-ten finishes in more than 21 percent of his career starts on the PGA TOUR, Tommy Fleetwood has typically made the most of his stateside appearances during his career. But with one event left in the 2021 regular season, Fleetwood finds himself on the outside looking in at the FedExCup Playoffs.

Fleetwood’s most significant statistical dip this season has come in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, where he’s dropped from 24th to 153rd. Now 35th in the Official World Golf Ranking, Fleetwood is averaging 7.2 yards less off the tee this season compared to last. Considering that, maybe Sedgefield is the perfect layout for a resurgent week for the Englishman: winners of the Wyndham Championship since 2010 rank about 14 percent lower in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee than the PGA TOUR average during that span.

Justin Rose

Current FedExCup Rank: 138
Top-125 Probability: 34.5%

Less than two-and-a-half years removed from being the number one ranked player in the world, Justin Rose is in an unfamiliar spot this week at the Wyndham Championship. Currently 13 spots out of the Playoffs, Rose is down nearly 100 spots this season compared to last in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (from 69th to 167th).

Despite that, Rose has played his best golf in some of the biggest spots of the year. His two top-ten finishes on the PGA TOUR this season have both come at major championships: at the Masters, where he held the outright 36-hole lead, and the PGA Championship, where he closed with 67 to vault into a tie for eighth. Needing a big week in North Carolina, can the 10-time TOUR winner find that form again?

Nate Lashley

Current FedExCup Rank: 127
Top-125 Probability: 29.9%

When Nate Lashley missed the cut last week at the Barracuda Championship, it moved him outside the top-125 in the FedExCup points race for the first time since last September. Now on the outside looking in, Lashley will need to avoid a fourth straight missed cut in order to qualify for the postseason. Thankfully for Lashley, his win at the 2019 Rocket Mortgage Classic will keep him on TOUR for next season, regardless of how he plays in Greensboro.

Lashley made his debut at the Wyndham Championship in 2020, opening with 66 before ultimately finishing 77th. He will try to recapture that opening round performance this week and move on to the postseason.

What does your favorite player need to do to burst the bubble and make the postseason? Take a look below, as our PGA TOUR ShotLink team crunched the numbers and came up with these scenarios:

Players 187th or worse likely need a victory to move into the Top 125.

Players 161st to 184th likely need a top-2 finish to move into the Top 125.

Players 150th to 159th likely need a top-3 finish to move into the Top 125.

Players 147th to 149th likely need a top-4 finish to move into the Top 125.

Players 145th & 146th likely need a top-5 finish to move into the Top 125.

Players 141st to 144th likely need a top-6 finish to move into the Top 125.