2022 The Open Championship, Round 1

Scoring Conditions:

Overall: +0.7 strokes per round
Morning wave: -0.01
Afternoon wave: +1.41

Current cutline (top 70 and ties):

76 players at 0 or better (T55)

Top 3 projected cutline probabilities:

1. Even par: 38.4%
2. 1 under par: 26.0%
3. 1 over par: 22.2%

Top 10 win probabilities:

1. Rory McIlroy (2, -6, 20.7%)
2. Cameron Young (1, -8, 12.6%)
3. Scottie Scheffler (T5, -4, 8.9%)
4. Cameron Smith (T3, -5, 7.2%)
5. Dustin Johnson (T5, -4, 5.8%)
6. Xander Schauffele (T13, -3, 3.8%)
7. Patrick Cantlay (T27, -2, 3.1%)
8. Talor Gooch (T5, -4, 2.8%)
9. Viktor Hovland (T5, -4, 2.7%)
10. Joaquin Niemann (T13, -3, 2.6%)

NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of The Open Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.