2022 Farmers Insurance Open, Round 1

Scoring Conditions:

North Course: -2.9 strokes per round
South Course: +0.78

Current cutline (top 65 and ties)

75 players at -2 or better (T53)

Top 3 projected cutline probabilities:

1. 3 under par: 40.6%
2. 4 under par: 25.1%
3. 2 under par: 23.0%

Top 10 win probabilities:

1. Jon Rahm (T5, -6, 31.3%)
2. Justin Thomas (T31, -4, 9.4%)
3. Dustin Johnson (T31, -4, 6.3%)
4. Billy Horschel (1, -9, 6.1%)
5. Luke List (T9, -5, 4.4%)
6. Cameron Tringale (T9, -5, 3.9%)
7. Daniel Berger (T9, -5, 2.9%)
8. Sam Burns (T9, -5, 2.4%)
9. Scottie Scheffler (T53, -2, 2.2%)
10. Tony Finau (T9, -5, 2.2%)

NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of THE NORTHERN TRUST, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.