Power Rankings: AT&T Byron Nelson

Officially, it’s the AT&T Byron Nelson, but since TPC Craig Ranch has hosted the staple on the PGA TOUR calendar, it’s been the Catch Me if You Can presented by K.H. Lee. He’s going for three victories in as many editions on the host track.

Continue reading beneath the ranking of projected contenders for a breakdown of the course,how it’s been K.H. Lee-proofed(?), what it will require to prevail and more.

Si Woo Kim, 2018 champion Aaron Wise and Min Woo Lee will be among the notables reviewed in Golfbet Insider.

Lee is the third of five two-time defending champions this season. Viktor Hovland finished T10 at Mayakoba and Sam Burns placed sixth at Copperhead, so Lee has a high bar to clear if he’s going to join those two in a worthy chase for a threepeat. However, only the highest bar has been the reality of the outcome for Lee at TPC Craig Ranch. Not only is he the only winner of the tournament on the course, but it’s also the only course where he’s captured victory on the PGA TOUR.

After it debuted with a scoring average of 69.574 in 2021, the par 72 surrendered a 69.217 last year. (Lee posted 25-under 263 and 26-under 262, respectively.) Those clips slot TPC Craig Ranch as the easiest par 72 in a full-field tournament contested on a singular course since TPC Summerlin checked up at 69.070 for the Shriners Hospitals Open in 2009. The following year, TPC Summerlin was reduced to a par 71. TPC Craig Ranch is following that model this year.

Formerly stocked with four par 5s, TPC Craig Ranch now is a par 71 because the 12th hole has been redesignated as a par 4 tipping at 493 yards. The reduction of 54 yards from when it played as a par 5 reflect the entirety of the drop to 7,414 yards overall.

Despite the contraction that promises to result in a lower score in relation to par, hitting greens in regulation and sinking putts with regularity is the formula to prevail, but as Lee has proven, sticking it tight isn’t a prerequisite. After ranking fourth in proximity in 2021, he was 76th (of 84) last year. He also hit three fewer GIR in 2022 but he offset by going 15-for-17 in scrambling. (He went 11-for-14 in scrambling in 2021.) These are the kinds of invisible differences that allowed him to separate just enough to be the guy posing for pictures with the hardware.

Bentgrass greens are slightly above average in size and they are prepped to run up to 11½ feet again this year. The tallest of the bermuda rough is up half-an-inch to three inches, but it isn’t as gnarly due to uncooperative conditions for growth in advance of the tournament.

This week’s weather forecast is ominous, so how the scoring average settles could be an anomaly when reviewing it in the future. Rain is expected every day and storms are likely, so a delay is all but a certainty, if not multiple interruptions. The storybook winds of Texas also will challenge. Where any of the 156 in the field lands in the draw will take a back seat to preparation, patience and acceptance.

ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE

PGATOUR.com’s Rob Bolton recaps and previews every tournament from numerous perspectives. Look for his following contributions as scheduled.

MONDAY: Power Rankings

TUESDAY*: Sleepers

WEDNESDAY: Golfbet Insider

SUNDAY: Payouts and Points, Medical Extension, Qualifiers, Reshuffle

* - Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, which also publishes on Tuesday.