Horses for Courses: Justin Thomas chases third title at The Sentry

Happy New Year!

Teeing it up at the Plantation Course at Kapalua has been a New Year’s tradition since 1999. Opening Drive, the official start of the 2025 PGA TOUR season, returns to the Coore & Crenshaw Design track for the 26th consecutive year. Stretching to 7,596 yards and the only par-73 layout on TOUR, the course features four par-5 holes and three par-3 chances.

Led by defending champion Chris Kirk (+7000), a field of 60 players kicks off 2025 with a no-cut event up and down the west Maui mountains. The Athens, Georgia, native lifted the first trophy of 2024 last January and became the first player to qualify for the 2025 edition. Making his first appearance since the 2016 edition, the 38-year-old, a whopping +12500 outsider, posted 29 under to win by a shot and pick up his fifth consecutive T24 or better result on Maui. Squaring only one bogey, the six-time winner on TOUR circled 30 birdies and putted the dimples off the golf ball. He became the oldest winner since 45-year-old Steve Stricker in 2012. Australians Stuart Appleby (2005-06) and Geoff Ogilvy (2009-10) are the only players to defend the title successfully.

NOTE: Players listed are in the field this week; 2024 season stats.

Putting: Birdie-or-Better Conversion Percentage

Averaging almost four shots under par over the last four years, scoring conditions at the Plantation Course are the friendliest on TOUR. Kapalua provides enormous landing areas off the tee (58 yards wide on average) and the largest greens on TOUR, almost 9,000 square feet on average. Converting Greens in Regulation to birdies or better is required to contend. Over the last four years, the average winning total is a stunning 28.7 strokes under par. With the ever-present sea breeze swirling, the TifEagle Bermuda putting surfaces run just 11 feet on the Stimpmeter. The last 10 editions have produced eight winners who have registered in the top two in this category, and no winner has finished worse than eighth. A hot putter will make the stunning views even better!

Justin Thomas (+900) is the only two-time champion in the field. Posting 22-under in 2017, he picked up the trophy on his second visit. (Daniel Chopra, the 2008 winner, is the only player to win on debut – experience on the mountain matters.) Winning for the second time in 2020, Thomas posted the highest total – 14-under – since 2006 and was the last man standing after a three-person playoff. The two-time major champion makes his ninth start and has also finished third twice, and his worst payday, T25, was achieved on his last visit in 2023. He did not qualify for the 2024 tournament.

Bogey Avoidance

The defense at Kapalua is the breeze and 93 bunkers. If the winds are calm and manageable, bogeys need not apply. The scoring average for the event over the last four seasons has registered at 69.3 or better. As mentioned above, the expansive landing areas and big greens mitigate the effects of Mother Nature. The 2.5 inches of Bermuda rough off the fairway and closely mown areas around the greens will not bother these guys, but big misses come with bigger penalties. Judging elevation changes, over 400 feet throughout the round, uneven lies and lag putting will keep the squares and others off the cards of those in contention. In the windy 2020 edition, Thomas became the only winner in the last 10 events to make more than five bogeys over 72 holes. Eight of the 10 champions ranked T5 or better.

Consensus betting favorite Xander Schauffele (+550) is one of three former winners competing. Like Thomas, the Californian won on his second visit in 2019 on 23 under, the first of four tournament totals of 21 under or better in the last five years. In defense the following year, he was knocked out in a three-man playoff by Thomas. Posting 24 of 25 rounds in red figures, five of his last six results have been T12 or better.

SG: Tee to Green

A hot putter will always create separation in a shootout. The only winner in the last 10 years not to finish in the top six in this category was Harris English in 2021 (T13). Finishing sixth last year, Kirk joins English as the only two winners not to reside in the top three in this category. Judging how the ball will roll out in the fairway, measuring the ball below and above your feet, and attacking the proper portions of the greens are necessary to be in contention on the back nine Sunday.

Collin Morikawa (+1000) has not cracked the code yet, but it is not from a lack of trying. The two-time major winner held a six-shot lead after 54 holes in 2023, but a final-round 72 saw him drift to solo second. Making his sixth start, he’s the only player in the field to cash in the top 10 over the last five editions.

Oddsmaker’s extras

Sungjae Im (+1800): Making his fifth start, the Korean has posted nine of 16 rounds at 67 or better. Cashing T13 or better in every event, he also owns three top-eight paydays. The 2024 event saw him open with 65, close with 63 – his best round at Kapalua – and post 25 under for T5.

Brian Harman (+5500): The left-hander also cashed T5 last year and has signed for 13 of 15 career rounds at 70 or better. Solo third in 2018 is his best result, and all four paychecks cashed T17 or better.

Max Homa (+6500): The Californian is making his fourth consecutive start at the Plantation Course and is 65-under over his last three events. Currently on a run of six straight rounds in the 60s, his worst total over that span is 20 under.

Jason Day (+5000): With six starts in the books, the Australian has cashed 13th or better over 13 years on Maui. Returning for the first time since 2019 last year, he posted four more rounds in the 60s and shared 10th. The one-time course record holder (62, Round 4 in 2015) and superb putter enjoys the generous landing areas and massive greens.

J.T. Poston (+4500): Earning his fourth appearance, the man from North Carolina closed 66-65 in 2024 for T5 after T21 in 2023 and T11 in 2020. Seven of his last eight rounds are in the 60s.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+6500): Unlike his European Ryder Cup teammates, the Englishman returns for the third consecutive season. The 2022 U.S. Open champion cashed T7 (21 under) on debut in 2023 and ran it back with four rounds in the 60s last year for T14 (22 under). His worst round from eight loops is 70 once.

(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)

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