Horses for Courses: Green jacket winners mean 'go' at Augusta National

A tradition unlike any other, the Masters Tournament opens the major championship portion of the annual PGA TOUR schedule.

Founded in Augusta, Georgia, Augusta National Golf Club opened its doors in 1934. Designed by Dr. Alister Mackenzie and Bobby Jones, the 2024 scorecard reflects the commitment to the modern game. Playing to 7,555 yards, 10 more yards than 2023, the par-72 will play the longest in history, but other changes will be prevalent this week.

The addition of yards on the scorecard comes from a new tee box on No. 2. Modified green contours on the second, fourth and sixth holes add extra challenges to an already demanding front nine. The back nine is where the fireworks happen annually, but arriving at Amen Corner in contention with a chance is the first order of business. Players with experience in those moments from past Sundays have a major advantage this week.

Scottie Scheffler (+400) needed only three tries to ace this examination. In 16 career rounds, he’s posted 72 or better 14 times and has never finished outside T19 (2020). Defending his title last year in his fourth visit, he added his second top-10 payday with T10. The Texan, joined by Matt Fitzpatrick (+3300), are the only two players to square less than 20 bogeys over the last two editions. Only Jon Rahm and Jordan Spieth have a better career scoring average (more than 10 rounds played).

Jon Rahm (+1200): Making his eighth trip, the 2023 reigning champion has never had to request an early checkout. Joining his countrymen Ballesteros, Olazabal, and Garcia donning the green jacket last year, the Spaniard has five top-10 paydays from seven previous visits. Playing 28 rounds, his scoring average of 70.50 is the best of the qualified players who have posted between 25 and 49 career rounds. The two-time major champion has produced the lowest or second-lowest round in two of the last three editions.

Strokes Gained: Approach the Green

Players listed are in the field this week; 2024 season stats.

The ultimate second-shot golf course, Augusta National requires every tool in the bag. Uneven lies in the middle of the fairway, let alone from the second cut, will test the resolve and execution of the best ball-strikers. Controlling the golf ball into the right spots on the greens with the correct trajectory and spin will create scoring chances. Finding Greens in Regulation, usually below the hole, will help to keep bogeys off the card. The water penalty areas, five in total, start at No. 11 on the back nine.

Patrick Reed (+6600), who putted the dimples off the ball in his victory in 2018, is the only winner in the last 10 years not to finish T7 or better for the week in this category. Cashing in the top 10 three times in his last four visits, including T4 in 2023, proves his game translates in Georgia.

Par-4 Scoring Average

Everyone will score on the four par-5s, but the 10 par-4s provide one of the toughest challenges annually on TOUR. Not including the 2020 November event, Augusta National has ranked in the top four in five of the last six years. The only year outside the top four was the 2021 edition (T8). Grinding out pars and keeping the big numbers off the card will allow the results on the par-5s to add separation instead of trying to mitigate damage.

The only player under 40 with more top-10 finishes than Jordan Spieth (+2200) has never set foot inside Butler Cabin. Finishing T2 on debut in 2015, the Texan became the second-youngest winner (Tiger Woods, 1997). Posting 270 during his win, he tied Tiger Woods for the tournament scoring record and became the first player to put 19-under par on the board. The three-time major champion has made the cut in nine of 10 starts and cashed T4 or better six times, including two of the last three years.

In November 2020, Dustin Johnson (+4000) posted 20-under, the lowest tournament total, to win his first green jacket and secure his fifth top-10 finish.

Scrambling

A gust of wind, an uneven lie, or indecision will lead to plenty of missed GIR. When missing the target, the ability to play check-check-stop, bump-and-run, or the flop shot will keep the momentum rolling. The other half of this equation is holing putts once the ball is on the green. Which way is Rae’s Creek? Am I seeing what I think I’m seeing in this green slope? Experience is a fantastic 15th club to possess from tee box to hole location this week. Ironically, the only winner from the last 10 not to register in the top 16 was five-time winner Tiger Woods (+150000). The last three winners in April ranked first or second in Scrambling.

Hideki Matsuyama (+1800) claimed his green jacket on his 10th attempt. The Japanese star has only one finish outside T19 from his last nine consecutive weekends and has cashed in 11 of 12 trips. Pounding GIR and getting up and down from everywhere reduces the pressure off his putter. The only winner from Asia, he enters the week with a scoring average of 71.54 in 46 rounds.

Rory McIlroy (+1000) is the only highlighted non-winner this week. Signing for top-10 paychecks in seven of 15 visits, he is the highest-ranked player on the all-time money list without a win. Only Woods and three-time winner Phil Mickelson (+20000) have produced more top-10 results of those expected to challenge this week. Missing the cut in 2021 broke a run of 10 consecutive weekends. Closing with 64 in 2022, he snuck in the back door to claim second place, his best result. Missing the cut in 2023 changed his preparation for this year’s event.

Oddsmaker’s Extras

• Xander Schauffele (+1400): Finishing tied for second on debut in 2019 to Woods, this Californian has added T10 and T3 in two of his last three visits. More than comfortable on the grounds, over 22 rounds, his career scoring average is 71.32.
• Brooks Koepka (+2000): Joining Schauffele as co-runner-up in 2019, the five-time major champion is still looking for his first green jacket. Last year he led by two shots after 54 holes, but a disappointing Sunday round of 75 knocked him to T2 again. Missing the cut in two of his last three attempts was due to a balky knee, no longer an issue holding him back.
• Jason Day (+6600): The Australian exploded onto the scene in 2011. Posting a second-round 64 on debut, he was left behind by Charl Schwartzel's four birdies in the final four holes yet shared second. From 2011 through 2019, he cashed outside T20 twice, T22 and T28. Missing the cut in 2021, the 2015 PGA Champion opened with 67 last year before fading to T39.
• Tony Finau (+4000): Signing for T10 or better in three of his first four visits, the big hitter has cooled with T26 and T35 in the last two tournaments. Never missing a cut in six tries and posting a 71.33 scoring, it’s obvious his game translates.
• Corey Conners (+6600): The Canadian will be looking to join countryman Mike Weir as the only winners from north of the border. Missing the cut last season after winning the Valero Texas Open the week prior, he snapped a streak of three years running with a top-10 finish. He won’t have that problem to worry about this week!

-Odds courtesy of BetMGM.com-

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