Draws and Fades: Brian Harman worth a look at Austin Championship after Thursday back-nine stall

The horn has officially sounded on the opening round of the inaugural Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions, and it was pure chaos down the stretch, at least for those watching the broadcast.

Tommy Morrison (+20000) lost his ball on No. 18 somewhere near a relief area or in the trees. Regardless, nobody could find it. He had to call over a rules official and ultimately re-tee, resulting in roughly a 20-minute delay. That held up several groups, leaving more than a handful of players still needing to complete their opening rounds.

That said, it’s Trace Crowe (+450) who leads the tournament after a brilliant 10-under 62, the lowest round of his PGA Tour career.

With this being our first time teeing it up at the Omni Barton Creek Resort & Spa's Fazio Canyons Course, Thursday gave us a pretty good glimpse of what to expect from this golf course. Initially, I drew some parallels to TPC San Antonio and PGA National, but the more I watched, the more it looked like a blend of Quail Hollow and PGA National. Imagine those two courses having a baby, only with even more undulation than PGA National.

What I really love about this golf course is that if you keep your ball in play, you can really score. However, for those who struggled to find fairways, there weren’t many places to bail out. Thanks to the rain this course received over the past week or so, the rough was thick and a little grabby, making things even more difficult for players who couldn’t keep it in the short grass.

Initially, my player profile focused heavily on guys who were strong on approach, almost ignoring driving accuracy altogether. But the more I watched, the more I realized how important it is to target players who can hit a lot of fairways while still gaining a ton of strokes on approach.

My first addition to the live betting arsenal is a guy who’s been driving the ball outrageously well. I already have an outright ticket on him, but given what I’ve seen from this golf course, I want to add a little more exposure in the placement market.

Austin Smotherman

• Top 20 (-110, FanDuel)
• Top 10 (+220, FanDuel)

While watching Austin Smotherman (+2500) play golf today, it felt like he was tearing the cover off the ball. He could have easily been 10 under had a couple more putts fallen his way. Little did I know that Smotherman actually led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. According to Data Golf, he gained nearly five strokes on approach alone.

I wasn’t at all surprised to learn that he lost nearly two strokes putting because it felt like every time he found a green, he missed the putt. Yet, despite his struggles on the greens, he still finds himself inside the top 10 after a fantastic opening round.

The weak link for Smotherman has historically been his putter, but as I mentioned in my Horses for Courses column earlier this week, the flat stick has actually been pretty cooperative lately. He gained strokes putting in back-to-back events, winning both. He’s playing with a ton of confidence, and I think there’s room for some positive regression on the greens.

He wasn’t necessarily pushing or pulling his putts. It looked more like he was struggling with his reads. Switching to Bermuda grass can be tricky, but I think he figures it out.

If Smotherman can simply be neutral with the putter while continuing to stripe the ball the way he did Thursday, I have a hard time seeing him finish outside the top 20. That gives us plenty of reason to attack both the top-20 and top-10 markets at the right prices.

Brian Harman

• Top 20 (-105, FanDuel)
• To win (+2700, FanDuel) 

This feels like one where you should probably shop around because I did see some +4000 outright prices available. At that number, I have no problem backing Brian Harman.

I know I talked about drawing parallels to TPC San Antonio, a golf course where Harman has already won, but that’s not the main reason I like this bet, especially in the top-20 market.

Harman went out in 32 on Thursday, gaining strokes on approach and putting on just about every hole. However, he stumbled his way in, losing strokes down the stretch and playing his second nine in an even-par 35.

It’s uncommon to see Harman go that many holes without gaining strokes putting or draining a few putts. I think there’s a good opportunity for him to bounce back, making the top-20 market particularly appealing.

The outright ticket is admittedly a little more of a stretch, but given the price, his pedigree and what we’ve seen from this golf course, I think it’s worth considering.