The first Signature Event of the 2026 PGA TOUR season is officially underway, and it didn’t take long for fireworks to show up on the Monterey Peninsula.

Ryo Hisatsune (+1100) closed with three straight birdies Thursday to post 10-under 62 and grab the solo first-round lead. He opened the week as a +15000 longshot at FanDuel Sportsbook. One round later, he’s +1100 and back in familiar territory. For three straight weeks, Hisatsune has been near the top of the leaderboard and in contention.

Right behind Histatsune are two proven winners. Sam Burns (+1100) and Keegan Bradley (+900) sit one back at 9-under, with a trio of players at 8-under.

The biggest storyline of the day might belong to someone 10 shots off the lead. Scheffler (+2700) shot an even-par 72 at Pebble Beach, and he’s 10 strokes back, marking back-to-back events of slow starts.

The encouraging part for Scheffler backers is that even slow rounds don’t stop the world No. 1, they just slow him down.

Scottie Scheffler, Top 20 Finish (-105 at FanDuel)

Last week was more of the same from Scottie Scheffler at the WM Phoenix Open.

He opened eight shots off the lead after a messy Thursday where the driver simply wasn’t cooperating. For stretches, it looked uncomfortable off the tee. He made plenty of birdies, but the round was littered with small, unforced mistakes. And yet, by Sunday afternoon, there he was again.

Scheffler had closed the gap, climbed all the way to T3, and finished just one stroke shy of the playoff.

Thursday at Pebble Beach Golf Links was strange in a different way.

On the front nine, he hit six of seven fairways and seven of nine greens. Yet he lost strokes putting on six holes and made the turn at 1-under. The back nine unraveled more. Only three of seven fairways. Four of nine greens. He lost strokes putting on seven holes and leaned heavily on two birdies on the par-5s just to keep the round from slipping further.

The stat profile was ugly. He lost -2.41 strokes putting and -2.37 on approach. After barely gaining off the tee (+0.29), that left him losing -1.34 tee-to-green and -3.75 strokes total to the field. For most players, that’s an automatic fade.

Scheffler isn’t most players.

His floor is different. His bad is better. His good is the best. He hasn’t finished outside the top 20 since the 2025 WM Phoenix Open, and this week’s 80-man, no-cut format gives him three full rounds to climb while others try to maintain pace.

Pebble is about positioning off the tee and being clinical with wedges. That’s still his strength. He ranks No. 1 in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach from 50-100 yards and 100-150 yards. If the irons even approach his normal baseline and the putter goes in the right direction, a top-20 feels well within reach.

And if he finds anything close to what we saw in Rounds 2-4 last week, we may be talking about something more than just a placement ticket.

Chris Gotterup, Top 5 Finish (+180)

I’ll admit it. I was late to the Gotterup (+1000 to win) party. Yes, I cashed his outright last week. No, I didn’t come back for seconds this week. That part feels like a mistake. After what we saw on Thursday, I need something in the portfolio. I’m not racing to grab +1000 to win, but Top 5 at +180 feels like a strong floor for the way he’s playing.

Gotterup opened like a man in a hurry. Six straight birdies to start the round. A bogey at the eighth slowed the run, but he still turned in 5-under 31 and posted 8-under for the day, just two shots off the lead.

It wasn’t flukey scoring either. It’s replicated success. Just look at his stat profile.

He gained +3.77 strokes on approach. That number jumps off the page. Replicating that is tough for anyone. But here’s the part I like. He lost -0.79 strokes off the tee and gained just +0.81 with the putter. There’s room to clean it up and play better. Sounds crazy to say out loud.

When Gotterup has it all synced, he’s dangerous. He’s long, he can overpower par 5s, and his iron play has taken a real step forward. The putter has always been the swing piece. Not bad, just streaky. When it cooperates, he closes.

This isn’t a flash-in-the-pan run, either. He won the Sony Open in Hawaii in January. He finished T18 at the Farmers Insurance Open while losing 2.1 strokes putting. Then he followed it up by winning the WM Phoenix Open despite giving strokes back on the greens again.

At some point, the market adjusts fully. I’m not sure it has yet. Top 5 feels like the right way to play it. I’m loving what he’s showing on the course lately.

(Data via rickrungood.com and datagolf.com)