The third round of the Sony Open was more of the same: Relentless wind that tested golfers from start to finish, with gusts reaching 21 mph throughout the day. Wayward shots were punished, especially with the thick Bermuda rough waiting just off the fairway. It showed up on the scorecard, too. Round 3 played as the toughest of the week so far, playing +0.14 strokes over par.

Defending champion and 36-hole leader Nick Taylor (+1000) looked like the man to beat after two rounds, but a rough back nine pushed him a few strokes off the lead heading into Sunday.

For a tournament known for giving longshots a legitimate chance, it’s setting up to deliver again. Davis Riley (+230), who opened the week at +25000, is the leader in the clubhouse thanks to one of the best putting performances of the tournament. Riley currently leads the field in Stokes Gained: Putting, and after a shaky finish to last season that included two missed cuts in his final four events, a win this week would be a huge statement. If he can close it out, the Alabama product would earn his third PGA TOUR victory and his best finish since his T2 at the 2025 PGA Championship.

We’re in for a treat on Sunday. The winds are expected to be the calmest they’ve been all week, which could open the door for someone to go low and make a run from further back.

72-hole matchbet: Corey Conners vs. Nick Taylor | Corey Conners +125

Taylor holds a one-shot lead over Conners heading into Sunday, but this is an attractive match-up given its price, especially with tie protection.

Conners is trending in the exact direction you want heading into a final round. He opened the tournament with an even-par 70, and honestly, it wasn’t his ball-striking that failed him. He lost two strokes putting and still managed to hang around. Since then? It’s been a steady climb – a 67, then a 65. The best part is that the putter has improved each day, gaining more strokes on the greens with every passing round.

Taylor, on the other hand, came out firing. That 62 on Thursday gave him the lead after Round 1. But since then, the scores have been less than perfect. He followed it with a 69 and then a 70 in Round 3. That’s not a collapse by any means, but it does show the separation hasn’t been there. The bigger concern for me is what’s driving it: Taylor hasn’t been sharp off the tee at Waialae.

This is not the course to get loose with the driver. Miss fairways here, and you’re in trouble. The rough is just too thick. We’ve already seen plenty of guys get punished for one slightly offline tee shot. That’s why Conners jumps off the page to me. His ball striking has been elite. He’s gained +3.05 strokes ball-striking (via DataGolf) this week, which is the best mark in the entire field. If the putter simply stays hot, he’s absolutely live to make a deep run on Sunday.

Now, we’re not going to ignore history. Taylor is the defending champ, and he’s been ridiculous at Waialae, with a win last year and top 11 finishes in each of his last four trips. Conners’ history isn’t too shabby either. He finished T3 here in 2019 and posted back-to-back, top-12 finishes in 2022 and 2023. The only reason his Sony results haven’t been better in the last few years is the putter. In each of the last three seasons here, he’s lost strokes putting, including a brutal -5.1 last season.

That’s exactly why I love the setup we’re getting now. Conners is rolling it better than usual, and everything else already is in his bag. Even from a pure metrics standpoint, Conners grades higher than Taylor over the last 36 rounds: more strokes gained off the tee, on approach, tee-to-green and overall. Taylor’s edge is on the greens, no doubt, but if Conners keeps this putting form for one more day, then the plus money is too good to ignore.