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Nov 5, 2023

Draws & Fades: Back the chase pack after Kuchar miscue creates a wide-open finale in Mexico

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Draws and Fades

Draws & Fades: Back the chase pack after Kuchar miscue creates a wide-open finale in Mexico
    Written by Jimmy Reinman

    The World Wide Technology Championship at El Cardonal at Diamante has delivered on its promise of low scores, and the final round promises even more excitement as two veterans in Matt Kuchar and Camilo Villegas share the lead at a 19 under. It's been a journey at the first Tiger Woods-designed course to host on the PGA TOUR, and as the tournament nears its conclusion bettors are looking to place their saddle on the winning horse in a packed field.

    After looking like it would be a runaway victory for Kuchar early on Saturday, things took a turn for the unexpected (as these things often do) when the 45-year-old posted a quadruple bogey on the 15th hole. Kuchar was 10 under through 14 holes before a shift that sent the oddsmakers into mayhem. An unfortunate turn for those holding Kuchar tickets, and congratulations to those who bet on anyone else before Kuchar sprung his leak.

    Let’s take a look at the odds as they sit heading into Sunday.

    Updated odds to win World Wide Technology Championship (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

    +240: Matt Kuchar (-19)
    +400: Erik van Rooyen (-18)
    +450: Camilo Villegas (-19)
    +700: Justin Suh (-17)
    +850: Mackenzie Hughes (-17)
    +900: Will Gordon (-17)
    +3300: Michael Kim (-15)

    Similarities between Tiger’s Cabo playground and the Mexico Open at Vidanta Villarta have been drawn all week and continue to prove true as we reach the three-quarter mark of the tournament. Length off the tee compared to the field continues to be the common denominator between all of those still in contention after 54 holes. Of the 11 players at 15 under or better, nine of them ranked in the top 33 in the field in driving distance Saturday. Additionally, putting will be a crucial factor Sunday in what has been a difficult course to read on the greens in its TOUR debut. There are a few names on the board that stand out heading into the final round.

    Draws

    Mackenzie Hughes (+850)

    Hughes (-17) has demonstrated some compelling tools that make him a strong contender to chase down our two veteran leaders come Sunday. His exceptional performance with a round of 63 on Saturday, tied for the lowest of the day, showcases his ability to rise to the occasion when it matters most. Hughes posted that same number in the final round in his last win at the Sanderson Farms Championship in 2022. Additionally, Hughes holds the best back-nine scoring average for the week at 31.7, illustrating his ability to capitalize on crucial holes down the stretch – a skill that one Matt Kuchar could’ve used today. He might not be the longest hitter off the tee, but his T15 ranking in driving distance is respectable and has put him in plenty of advantageous positions up to this point. Moreover, being ranked T13 in Strokes Gained: Putting never hurts, as these undulating greens have proved tricky to get a good feeling on. The Canadian comes in at great value and has all the tools to be the last man standing South of the border.

    Will Gordon (+900)

    Gordon (-17) is another golfer who deserves serious consideration for your outright bet due to his position, potential and accompanying stats. First and foremost, Gordon ranks as second in the field in driving distance, underscoring his ability to gain an advantage on the longer holes, as he has done all week to get to 17 under. Gordon's fifth-place ranking in SG: Total Driving showcases his all-around game, combining both power and accuracy off the tee where it has valued most. Gordon has shown the rare combination of power and putting, holding a perfect record this week in three-putt avoidance. His T4 position in Strokes Gained: Putting further confirms his prowess on the greens. With a balanced skill set and a knack for avoiding costly mistakes, Gordon could be the guy to usurp the wily vets in the final round.

    Fade

    Justin Suh (+700)

    If only there was a way to track Strokes Gained: “Dog in Them,” because Suh would not rank favorably. Suh has appeared on leaderboards aplenty in his young TOUR career, but has yet to capitalize for his first win on the premier circuit. Just two weeks ago at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, Suh had a shot at the title after rounds of 68-66-67 before posting a ghastly 74 on Sunday to fall into a T10 finish. Unfortunately, that’s just the tip of the iceberg as Suh has posted the worst round of his week on Sundays at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, U.S. Open, the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, Charles Schwab Challenge, PGA Championship, Zurich Classic of New Orleans, RBC Heritage, The Honda Classic, The Genesis Invitational, The American Express, The RSM Classic, Cadence Bank Houston Open and last year’s World Wide Technology Championship. No, that is not a list of every tournament on the PGA TOUR, but it might as well be. Suh has posted his worst score of the week in the final round in 13 of his 27 starts this season where he made the cut and should not be one to back for the outright triumph until proven otherwise.

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