Back the big names over unexpected leader at RBC Heritage

Will 63-year-old Fred Couples ever win the Masters again? Probably not. But last week, we saw Couples make the cut for the 31st time in his career at Augusta, and he emerged as one of the feel-good stories of the week. This week there’s a different throwback in the mix.

The last time we saw 44-year old Jimmy Walker win was at the PGA Championship at Baltusrol in 2016. He had lost his TOUR card and had one foot in the retirement door but squeaked in with an exception this season, giving life to the top 50 players on the Career Money List via a one-time exemption. Walker has not only made the cut at the RBC Heritage, he's leading the golf tournament by three after shooting back-to-back 65's.

We've seen a number of resurgent moments already this season. Couples had missed the cut the last four years in a row before breaking through last week. Jason Day has returned to form as one of the top players in the world once again after being very much of a non-factor for most of the past two seasons. Justin Rose won at Pebble Beach. Chris Kirk won the Honda Classic, his first victory in seven years. And now we have Walker atop the leaderboard at Harbour Town Golf Links, sitting at 12 under par at the halfway point.

Updated odds to win RBC Heritage (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

+360: Scottie Scheffler

+650: Xander Schauffele

+750: Patrick Cantlay

+900: Viktor Hovland

+1200: Jimmy Walker, Justin Rose

+1400: Jordan Spieth

+1600: Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood

+3000: Rickie Fowler

Here are some of my in-play thoughts as we head into moving day on Hilton Head, with odds via BetMGM:

Draws

Xander Schauffele (+650)

Schauffele's numbers through the first two days of the RBC Heritage have been excellent, and also very true to form. I want to bank on players at this point who have been consistent and aren't necessarily putting together an outlier performance to the positive in any particular area - because that will often come back to the norm and hurt the player's score. Schauffele is third in the field for SG: Approach, seventh for GIR, and 15th for Scrambling - all very much in line with where he ranks for the season. I also really like the fact that Schauffele is 19th on TOUR in SG: Putting and through 36 holes, ranks 37th in this field. Again, steady and not swaying too far one way or another on the spectrum.

If the ball-striking continues as it's gone so far and the putting trends in a positive direction in the slightest, Schauffele could easily be your winner. If we are correct on fading Walker (more on that below), Schauffele is essentially tied for the lead right now.

Patrick Cantlay (+750)

Cantlay had a pretty funny response to all of the heat he's been taking about pace of play on Friday, knocking in a hole-in-one on the 17th hole. Let's first note that this is Cantlay's sixth time playing the RBC Heritage. He missed the cut in 2021 and has otherwise finished third-seventh-third-second - so being positioned where he is currently is nothing new on a golf course that obviously fits his game. Among the contenders, maybe only Matt Kuchar has a stronger course history. My analysis of Cantlay is basically identical to Schauffele: he is doing everything very well and it is all true to form. He's not off the charts one way or another, signaling a likely return to the mean. In looking at all of the contenders at the top of the leaderboard, Cantlay and Schauffele appear to currently have the smoothest sailing ships without any evidence to show that they may steer off course but rather only that steady progress will continue.

In my First Round Leader column on Wednesday, I pointed out five different post Masters scenarios: those that hadn't played in Augusta, those that missed the cut, those that exerted a lot of energy and left disappointed, etc. I probably would have categorized Cantlay and Schauffele to be a part of the latter - being close enough to taste contention to possibly have experienced some post Masters fatigue, mental stress, and disappointment - but maybe they were both truly far away from it enough that the end result was like any other week on TOUR. What they are doing so far and the way they are going about it, seems to show that what they went through for four days in Augusta did not have any negative effects.

Fades

Jimmy Walker (+1200)

The bad news is, I am now looking to go against Walker. If he hangs on for a win, it will be wonderful for he and his family after having been through some tough times with his health since his last win - and for the continuing stories of recent resurgence on TOUR. But I think he has been playing so far above his head these first two days, that I'm not betting it can continue. He ranks 10th in the field for SG: Approach and yet is 109th on TOUR in that category. He ranks 33rd this week for Driving Accuracy but he's 198th in Driving Accuracy on TOUR. He's 194th on TOUR in Greens in Regulation Percentage yet ranks 18th in this field through two days. He's currently fifth in the field for SG: Putting, gaining four times the number of stokes he typically does this season. Unfortunately I don't see what he's been doing so far being sustainable, so quite simply, Walker is a fade for me.

Jordan Spieth (+1400)

It was not long after the conclusion of the Masters that Spieth said he was exhausted. Add to that, he is the defending champion here at Hilton Head and the additional commitments during the week that come with that crown. He's obviously been very good so far, sitting at 7 under and just five shots off the lead. Like Walker however, Spieth too may be due for a letdown in some areas. He's currently 25th in this field for SG: Putting but is ranked 76th on TOUR in that category this season. 76th is solid but he could regress in that area over the weekend.

He is 18th in the field for Greens in Regulation Percentage but ranks 86th on TOUR. It is also interesting to note that Spieth has been pretty shabby as far as accuracy off the tee, ranking 47th in the field for Driving Accuracy - and the 60.7% of fairways that he is hitting, is better than his TOUR average. At the same time, he is still 15th for SG Approach and 18th in GIR, as I mentioned. If the inaccuracy continues off the tee, I have to believe the approach numbers are going to take a hit. Spieth could also be "running on fumes" somewhat. The fatigue that he noted after the Masters may eventually catch up to him again here - and if not on Saturday, I would not be surprised to see him get a little sloppy on Sunday. Ultimately, I don't see Spieth getting too close to a successful title defense.

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