AUSTIN, Texas – A sensational Sunday awaits at the Austin Country Club as a power packed final four survived to the semifinals of the World Golf Championships–Dell Technologies Match Play.

Defending champion and world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler continued his love affair with the course to make his third straight Sunday in Austin, rallying from three down against Jason Day to book his place against Sam Burns in the semis.

On the other side of the draw is another former champion and top dog in Rory McIlroy with the third seed prevailing in a classic match against Xander Schauffele to set up a date with last season’s PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year Cameron Young.

To win it all they’ll need to win two matches on Sunday. Here’s why each can, and why they might not, take out the Walter Hagen trophy.

SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER (+160 to win tournament with BetMGM)

Seed: 1

PGA TOUR wins: 6

Career DTMP Record: 15-2-2 (2022 champion)

Case For

Given Scheffler was the runner up on debut here in 2021 and then won it all last season it’s hard to go past him at least making the championship match for the third time from as many starts. The Texan is looking to be the first player since Tiger Woods (2007) to successfully defend multiple TOUR titles in a season having already defended at the WM Phoenix Open. He is also coming of a PLAYERS Championship win. He’s shown great tenacity, recovering from a late two-hole deficit in the round of 16 before overcoming a three hole deficit to Jason Day in the quarters.

Case Against

Ok we need to stretch… but of the four players left Scheffler doesn’t lead any of the major strokes gained metrics. He’s losing to the average on approach and ranks last of the final four in putting, a key factor in match play. A cynic would also point out he was three down to Day after seven holes when Day got hit with allergies and needed medical attention. Scheffler won the next two holes to cut into the lead. And then there is the fact he’s playing against good friend Sam Burns in the semis… maybe Scheffler will be so nice that he won’t be able to stomp his friend… but Burns doesn’t think so. “We want to beat each other as bad as anybody, if not more. Obviously when we tee it up, it'll be business, and after we'll give a hug to each other and congratulate whoever wins,” Burns said.

SAM BURNS (+500 to win tournament)

Seed: 13

PGA TOUR wins: 4

Career DTMP Record: 5-0-0

Case For

Burns has been by far the most effective putter of those remaining, gaining a whopping 7.331 shots on the greens. His approach game has lost shots to the average over the week however that was not the case in his Saturday matches as he found his mojo hitting 15 of 17 greens in the morning and 15 of 16 in the afternoon. He’s also the underdog and can approach the day knowing the expectations are on Scheffler in the morning

Case Against

No one has won the Dell Technologies Match Play on debut since Geoff Ogilvy in 2006 and Burns has lost shots tee to green this week in its entirety. And… he has to play Scottie Scheffler. Now while he overcame Scheffler last season at the Charles Schwab Challenge, they weren’t paired together and going head-to-head until the playoff. This is different. “Colonial he finished a couple hours before I did. I was kind of dueling the golf course out there, and then went out in a playoff and made a nice putt and beat me,” Scheffler recalls. “I've seen some stuff from him this week, and he seems to be rolling it really good again, so it should be a great match tomorrow, and we'll go out and have some fun.”

RORY MCILROY (+220 to win tournament)

Seed: 3

PGA TOUR wins: 23

Career DTMP Record: 33-13-3 (2015 champion)

Case For

He’s a former champion of the event and a proven winner. And McIlroy is driven having watched Scheffler win twice recently and Jon Rahm notch up three TOUR wins in the new year. As he tries to peak towards The Masters were he seeks the career grand slam McIlroy knows a win will boost his confidence no end. “Winning the Match Play is always a massive accomplishment because of what you have to go through. It's seven rounds and, especially this week, I feel like a lot of my matches have been really, really close, so to be able to pull them out when I've needed to has been very gratifying,” McIlroy said. McIlroy leads the final four in strokes gained off the tee and around the green.

Case Against

McIlroy is the old man of the group at 33 and has had to play the most holes with 87. His proximity on approach hasn’t been to his usual high standards yet he’s finding ways to get victories. He’s also about to come up against an in-form Cameron Young in the semis. Young is besting McIlroy by almost eight shots on approach this week.

CAMERON YOUNG (+350 to win tournament)

Seed: 15

PGA TOUR wins: 0

Career DTMP Record: 6-2-0

Case For

No one is hitting it better than Cameron Young this week. He’s played the least holes of those remaining as he’s might light work of opponents and has gained 13.571 strokes tee-to-green for the tournament. An incredible 9.413 strokes have been gained on approach, eight better than McIlroy, nine ahead of Scheffler and over 11 ahead of Burns. He’s even gaining strokes on the greens perhaps in part to his new caddie Paul Tesori who is an expert Aim Point green reader.

Case Against

Young is yet to win on TOUR and while last season he had multiple chances, including in huge tournaments, he was never able to close the deal. Getting your first is hard and having to go through the likes of McIlroy, Scheffler or Burns doesn’t make that easier.

By The Numbers – Final 4

Seeds: Scottie Scheffler (1), Rory McIlroy (3), Sam Burns (13), Cameron Young (15).

Holes Played: Cameron Young (81), Scottie Scheffler (83), Sam Burns (85), Rory McIlroy (87).

Birdies/Eagles: Rory McIlroy (34), Cameron Young (33), Sam Burns (31), Scottie Scheffler (31).

Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee: Rory McIlroy (+7.801), Scottie Scheffler (+6.580), Cameron Young (+1.197), Sam Burns (+0.244).

Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: Cameron Young (+13.571), Rory McIlroy (+11.219), Scottie Scheffler (+8.057), Sam Burns (-3.130).

Strokes Gained: Approach the Green: Cameron Young (+9.413), Rory McIlroy (+1.524), Scottie Scheffler (-0.419), Sam Burns (-2.215).

Strokes Gained: Around the Green: Rory McIlroy (+3.161), Cameron Young (+2.490), Scottie Scheffler (+1.416), Sam Burns (-0.138).

Strokes Gained: Putting: Sam Burns (+7.331), Rory McIlroy (+2.591), Cameron Young (+1.875), Scottie Scheffler (+1.491).