Winds set up wild finish at Torrey Pines

Strap in and buckle up as the combination of a tough Torrey Pines South Course and a forecast for stiffening winds has set up a potential wild finish to the Farmers Insurance Open.

The latest forecast for Saturday’s final round has winds freshening at around 18 mph from noon onwards with gusts hitting the 25-28 mph on the Southern California coastal course. With the luscious rough and hard and fast greens on the former U.S. Open course, the injection of wind means no one is safe.

Add a high of just 61 degrees Fahrenheit and the lengthy 7,765-yard brute becomes even longer. A small chance of rain is also on the cards, though precipitation should hold off until Sunday.

The wind has already seen play halted for over an hour during Thursday’s second round, but the hope is that Saturday’s gusts will hold below that threshold. Regardless, it will be a very tough test with the leaders set to tee off at 11:11 a.m. local time, right as the winds start to pick up.

Just look at the scoring average from the three rounds so far:

• In Wednesday’s opening round, half the field who played the South did so in 72.160. So even without tough winds the infamous course played over par.
• When the high winds arrived Thursday for the second round, they came from the northeast and the average ballooned to 75.567, over 3.5 shots over par.
• Friday’s calmer conditions had a light breeze from the west, the best of the week, and with only the players who made the cut sent back out, the average dropped to 71.871.

But for the final round mother nature has flipped the script again, with the wind coming from the south. In other words, a completely new test for everyone with designs on the famous Torrey Pines trophy and celebratory surfboard.

“Today was way easier condition wise than yesterday, yesterday was wild,” leader Harris English said. “It's kind of survival of the fittest out there.”

English, a four-time TOUR winner, took advantage on Friday with a 6-under 66 moving him to 9-under and a one-shot lead over Andrew Novak. Novak will chase his first TOUR win from 8-under.

Young South African rookie Aldrich Potgieter produced a stunning eagle on the par-4 12th from 173 yards, one of four "2s" on his card, to help him to third place at 7-under.

K.H. Lee (68), Matti Schmid (68), Joel Dahmen (70) and Lanto Griffin (73) share fourth at 5-under while pre-tournament favorite Ludvig Åberg battled through an illness of some sort to shoot 74 and drop into a seven-way tie for eighth at 4-under.

A further 10 players, including Hideki Matsuyama, Sahith Theegala and Jason Day won’t have given up hope of mounting a challenge from 3-under given the forecast.

English finished with a flourish of three birdies, making him the man to beat and the +150 favorite with FanDuel Sportsbook.

“I kind of was hoping Harris wasn't going to finish the way he did, give me a little more of a chance tomorrow,” Dahmen said with a wry grin. “If he plays well tomorrow, no one's going to catch him.”

But for all the positive talk from his peers, English knows the battle ahead.

“I know it's going to be tough; it's going to be a grind," English said. "This course is really tough, one of the toughest we play on TOUR. You're going to miss some fairways, miss some greens, but you're going to have to make some tough putts and keep yourself in the game.”

English will no doubt also be aware of recent history: Brandt Snedeker win twice here, once from seven back with a round to play and once from six shots adrift.

In two of the last three years, winners Luke List and Max Homa started the final round five shots off the pace. Marc Leishman was four behind before winning in 2020, and since 2014, Jason Day, Jon Rahm and Scott Stallings have all come from three behind to win this tournament.

The latest odds from FanDuel are as follows.

• +150: Harris English
• +360: Andrew Novak
• +850: Aldrich Potgieter
• +1400: Ludvig Åberg
• +2200: Sungjae Im
• +3000: Lanto Griffin, Matti Schmid
• +3300: K.H. Lee, Joel Dahmen
• +3500: Hideki Matsuyama
• +5500: Jason Day
• +6500: Sahith Theegala

Given the forecast for possible carnage and the history of comebacks at this course, the value for live betting certainly comes down the boards. Andrew Novak +360 is certainly worth considering given his decent play across all metrics this week, especially leading the field in Bogey Avoidance, but with the wild conditions you have to be very confident to invest in him or English from here at short odds.

Finding fairways is going to be critical in the final round and so it is the South African 20-year-old, and a couple of South Koreans, who should be on your radar.

Aldrich Potgieter +850

You might not know the name but consider the fact Potgieter was born on the windy coast of South Africa, moved to a windswept Perth, Australia, as a golfing youngster, won The Amateur Championship which always requires skills in the wind, and became the youngest winner on the Korn Ferry Tour in the windy Bahamas! He currently leads the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (+1.952 per round), well ahead of most other contenders, although his approach game has given most of that advantage back. At fifth in SG: Putting, he’s shown aptitude to keep it together on the greens. And while his third round was filled with some shots that will be hard to replicate in the final round, and the nerves will rachet up, his price still shows some value.

K.H. Lee +3300

Don’t forget K.H. Lee has won twice on TOUR, both times in Texas where the wind can certainly be a factor. In the second of his wins at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, gusts were certainly part of the equation and in his first, a little rain was also in the mix. And so when you see he is fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee this week, third in both SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green and 11th in SG: Putting to boot ... well, all of a sudden, his odds look interesting.

Sungjae Im +2200

The robotic swing of Im means we can’t discount him. Ranked sixth, he and Lee are the best of the contenders in fairways found this week at sixth. The South Korean was T6 and T4 in 2022 and 2023 at Torrey Pines and is coming off a recent third-place finish at The Sentry. Ranked fifth this week in Bogey Avoidance.

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.