Prop Farm: Tiger Woods represents ‘biggest liability in a golf tournament ever’ for one oddsmaker

Welcome to Masters week! More money is wagered on this event versus any other in the world of golf, and with a big week comes big liability. In fact, if 82-time PGA TOUR winner Tiger Woods wins a sixth green jacket it will be the biggest hit in golf history for BetMGM Sportsbook bettors.

More on those crazy numbers later, which come exclusively from public bettors wishing on what would be tantamount to a near-miracle. It’s time to see where the sharp minds are throwing their hard-earned cash.

Here in the Prop Farm, we speak with bookmakers across the country and in Las Vegas about the handle each and every week and where bettors are gravitating toward in placing their wagers. We will once again touch on that this week but for the Masters, we thought it would be appropriate to also check in with some of the bettors, those folks that do their work on the public side of the betting window rather than the private side.

"Matsuyama to win," said Dave Tindall, a widely respected bettor and golf writer for Betfair in the U.K. "If anyone can oust Scottie Scheffler, it is likely to be a very in-form, past Masters winner. Step forward 2021 champ, Hideki Matsuyama,” explained Tindall.

"I'm also playing Russell Henley each-way," Tindall continued, noting another one of his many plays for the first major championship of the season. "He was fourth here last year and has three top-fours in his last seven PGA TOUR starts. The Georgia native can thrive once more."

Personally, I have a play on Matsuyama to win his second Masters as well. Tindall noted the Japanese star's current form. He's finished first, 12th, sixth, and seventh in his last four starts. Over the last 36 rounds, Matsuyama is second in this field only to Scheffler for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and is No. 1 for SG: Around the Green.

ESPN producer “Stanford” Steve Coughlin is on board, too. "I like Hideki to win."

Scheffler's odds to capture his second green jacket are historically low. Not since the heyday of Tiger Woods, have we seen such a low number on the favorite. Another highly regarded golf tipster from the U.K., Ben Coley, who writes for The Sporting Life, feels Scheffler’s especially low price is creating value for the defending champion. "Jon Rahm can defy history and become the first man in more than 20 years to defend his Masters title," said Coley.

"We have to remember that the sample size for this one tournament remains small," Coley went on to describe. "There are many past winners who have been at huge prices to defend. The very best players have often threatened, including Jordan Spieth, and many greats of the game have either done it or come close. Rahm is on his way to becoming one of those."

Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo, and Tiger Woods are the only players ever to successfully win back-to-back Masters tournaments.

Coley also got involved in one of the specialty markets, making a play on who we feel will be the low-amateur at this year's Masters. "For a prop bet, I'm trying Christo Lamprecht for Top Amateur. He's at a bigger price than was fellow World Amateur Golf Ranking No. 1 Gordon Sargent a year ago and the competition looks to be weaker and is smaller in number," the Englishman described.

"Lamprecht has played Augusta National before – a big advantage – and he led The Open Championship for a while last summer. He won the Silver Medal there and can add the Silver Cup to his collection."

Canadian Corey Conners is getting some love from a couple of people I spoke with this week. "He's been close. It wouldn't be a shock if he won," said SportsCenter host Scott Van Pelt, who also anchors ESPN's early-round coverage at Augusta. "I like him for a top-20 finish as a bet," noted Van Pelt.

SportsGrid host Cam Stewart is taking a different approach with Conners. "Top Canadian. He's a top-20 machine and if he can just putt okay, I expect him to be in the hunt," said Stewart who as a fellow Canadian, will be rooting on his countryman.

Conners has finished top-10 in The Masters in three of his last four trips and comes off of a 25th-place finish last week at the Valero Texas Open.

I mentioned checking in with the bookmakers too, as we always do in the Prop Farm, and guess who is making the biggest impact at the window?

“The book doesn’t want Tiger Woods to win but it would be great to see him pull it off, of course,” said Tristan Davis, Senior Manager at the Mandalay Bay Race and Sportsbook. “Currently we are +12500 and he's our worst liability by a country mile. In fact, this will be our biggest liability in a golf tournament ever,” Davis continued.

“The punters are really getting behind him. It’s all recreational money. Everyone is happy enough to have their $20-$50-$100 on him just so they can be a part of cheering him on. He is only 5% of the handle with us but at the big price, he is clearly the biggest liability,” Davis summarized.

At the same time, more respected money at Mandalay Bay is playing against Woods having too much success this week, Davis went on to point out. “Despite the support for Tiger we have a 2-1 ticket count – some sharp play - on Phil Mickelson to beat him this week in a full tournament head-to-head matchup at -135.”

Speaking of head-to-head matchups, Fox Sports Betting Analyst, Chris Fallica (known as “The Bear”) is going all-in on Will Zalatoris. “He hasn’t played well in his previous two events leading up to the Masters but his two trips here have resulted in a runner-up and a sixth-place finish,” said Fallica. “A year removed from back surgery, he is finally healthy and if his putter runs well like it did at Bay Hill, the Genesis Invitational, and Farmers Insurance Open, he will be a big factor here.”

I am on Zalatoris personally for an outright win as well as a top-20 finish. Fallica has him to win it outright too, in addition to two separate matchup plays - over Patrick Cantlay and over Viktor Hovland.

Fallica went on a bit to analyze his handicap of the two Zalatoris matchups. “Hovland’s price seems off to me, especially knowing he only has one top-20 finish in his last five starts and his play around the green has been poor recently. Cantlay is a guy people seem to think will break through at a major but the evidence suggests otherwise given his erratic 2024 season.”

VSIN host and golf betting specialist Wes Reynolds is not betting on Scheffler, Rahm, or Woods but did play one of the shorter shots to slip on the green jacket this week. “I like Xander Schauffele to win it this week,” said Reynolds, who like Coley, also took a dive into the prop market for Top Amateur. “Christo Lamprecht at plus money is a prop play for me to be the low amateur this week.”

Every year, heading into the Masters, we are reminded that a first-timer, a Masters rookie, has not won this event since 1979. Professional sports bettor, Rufus Peabody believes it might be time for that trend to change. “I think the lack of major experience narrative is overblown. Young guys play well at Augusta,” said the Yale graduate.

Jordan Spieth and Will Zalatoris come to mind as debutants who have finished runner-up on their first try at the Masters. “I took Ludvig Åberg to win it outright,” said Peabody. While Åberg is yet to compete in a major championship, he was an integral piece in Team Europe’s recent Ryder Cup triumph in Italy. He was runner-up earlier this season at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and won last fall at The RSM Classic, his first PGA TOUR victory. Åberg and defending U.S. Open champion, Wyndham Clark, are two high-profile players who will both be making their Masters debut this week. Clark and Åberg are ranked fourth and ninth respectively in the OWGR.

Personally, I am with Tindall and Stanford Steve on Matsuyama to get green jacket No. 2 this week. I am with Fallica on Zalatoris and also with Reynolds on Schauffele. Rounding out my card, I also played Spieth, Joaquin Niemann, Tony Finau, and Shane Lowry for both an outright win and separately, a top-20 finish.

Like Davis said earlier, the golf fan in us would love to witness the improbable and see Woods tie Nicklaus for green jacket No. 6, but the sportsbooks and more experienced bettors, are banking on a different result at the 88th Masters Tournament in Augusta, Georgia.

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