Benny and the Bets: Confronting a betting slump
6 Min Read

Golfbet Roundtable: Picks and Predictions for the Texas Children's Houston Open
Written by Ben Everill
The word "slump" is not one anyone involved in professional sports wants to hear. It’s no different in the world of sports betting.
But when you’ve done all your due diligence, you’ve poured through the stats, the records, factored in the intangibles as best you can and you are still coming up short… it is a word that pops up.
As they say where I’m from… it’s been a rough few weeks on the punt for those following my advice. To be fair, it’s not been an epic start to the season by any measure, but we have had a few hits here and there. However, lately, my in-tournament picks have almost been a kiss of death.
I questioned Scottie Scheffler after 36 holes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard and was dunked on. I once again worried about the world No. 1 being able to overcome the 54-hole deficit at THE PLAYERS Championship… great take, that one.
Last week, after giving Justin Thomas a green light, he shot 79. Also gave love to Keith Mitchell and looked great… until he imploded on Sunday to go from a two-shot lead to lose by eight. Even a simpler top-10 play on Rico Hoey, who was T8 with 18 holes to play, saw him post a Sunday 78 and drop to T54.
The other player I said could get it done at the Valspar Championship? Cameron Young. Instead, he notched up career runner-up No. 7.
So where to from here as we once again get ready to reload for Scheffler’s return and the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park? Much like a TOUR player, when it comes to times like these where the work is not showing up in results, we have to take a step back and evaluate.
What do we do when we are in a dreaded slump? Well, we have options, much like a player would. Let’s take a look.
GRIND IT OUT ON THE RANGE: Nothing gets results like hard work, especially when the motivation to do so can be waning. Players will double down their practice times, double their ball count, get out the TrackMan and crunch the numbers until there are blisters on their hands.
For bettors, this means going deeper on research. Sure, we start with the basics like previous course form at Memorial Park as well as recent form this season. Spoiler alert – Scheffler pops in both.
But we need to go DEEPER.
Memorial Park Golf Course has hosted the event numerous times in history, but only the last three (2020-22) were at the renovated track and those events fell in November… so how much stock can we put in those results?
What about facts like course changes? The 17th green was moved back 30 yards and has two new bunkers. According to GCSAA, the overseed will provide a much tighter playing surface than the bermudagrass did in 2022.
They claim this will highlight the penal green surroundings, while shorter rough gives an opportunity for aggressive approach shots to the green. Average fairway widths in landing areas are 30-40 yards.
I still read this to say the green light has been lit for the bombers to attack off the tee, not a stretch when we see Jason Kokrak and Tony Finau won the last two editions. It should play firm and fast.
We need to monitor weather reports, wind forecasts and other potential nuggets. Get really creative and watch for player quotes in the lead-up to how things are playing, where differences lie. Get locked in on multiple social sources around those on the ground. Dissect ALL Golfbet content, not just a few staples.
For those interested, my in-depth research this week highlights Sahith Theegala +2000 and Wyndham Clark +1200 as chalkier outright options. Scottie Scheffler +275 is just too low to advocate despite trends.
GO BACK TO THE BASICS AND FIND THE FUN: The next option in a slump is to strip it back to basics and remember why you got in this game to begin with. Before finances were involved, all players played for the fun of competition and the game itself. Instead of a lengthy range session, it could be a week of fun practice rounds against friends.
For the bettor, the theme is similar. Forget diving deeper into the stats this week. Strip things back, perhaps reduce your unit size, reduce your leverage and just pick a player you like to root for who gives you a good vibe.
If this season has shown us anything it is just how unpredictable golf can be sometimes. Find a story you like – a grinder like Peter Malnati was last week – or a blue blood you enjoy watching. What about Wyndham Clark going from runner-up to Scheffler twice to beating him this time out? Whatever story floats your boat.
For me, I always like Presidents Cup International Team candidates. Jason Day +2500 is a story I can always get behind, as would a rebound from Mackenzie Hughes +5000. Hughes is a great longshot option across the board this week. Speaking of rebounds, an American story to root for might be Keith Mitchell +4000 after his final-round struggles at Innisbrook.
EXPERIMENT WITH NEW EQUIPMENT: Another go-to for the TOUR player who has failed to nail results in a while is tinkering with equipment or their process. A different manufacturer, a new set of irons, a mallet putter instead of a blade.
Bettors can take this approach as well. Experiment with a new method of picking. If you previously relied heaviest on Strokes Gained data, perhaps lean further to current results or course form. Instead of looking for someone to pick, perhaps eliminate players NOT to pick.
You can also switch up your markets. If you are an outright bettor, consider moving focus to head-to-head or place markets. Investigate markets you’ve previously ignored like top nationality or group betting. Anything to freshen up how you enjoy watching the product.
Let’s get into some different markets: For place markets, as well as players mentioned above, there is Aaron Rai (+190 Top 20; +110 Top 40), Joel Dahmen (+280 Top 20; +135 top 40) and Andrew Novak (+330 Top 20; +160 Top 40). At BetMGM, Hughes is +800 to be Top Rest of World player or +200 to be Top Canadian. Rai is +225 to be Top Brit + Irish.
TAKE TIME OFF: This can be the hardest for any player, but sometimes a slump is a symptom of needing some rest and relaxation. Digging it out of the dirt might be proven, but so too is mental and physical exhaustion.
Every now and then we all need a reset. And one should always gamble responsibly and have the ability to step away when needed. Consider taking a week off. You can still make a casual pick with your mates without placing money down and maybe, just maybe it will help break the drought.
One thing you should never do is chase losses by increasing units and doubling down. Always bet within your means and treat it as an addition to your golf-watching entertainment. Play with what you can afford to lose and then try your best not to.
If you do that, as annoying as a slump can be, it won’t define you or your life.
For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.




