Golfbet Insider: The Open Championship and Barracuda Championship

Just like last week, it’s my civic duty to lead off this week’s column with the reminder that The Open Championship is the contributing tournament to PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. The Barracuda Championship is omitted.

Because of The Open’s location in England, which is five hours ahead on the clock than the Eastern Time Zone in the United States, your roster deadline is 1:35 a.m. on Thursday on the East Coast. That translates to 10:35 p.m. on Wednesday on the West Coast and 7:35 p.m. in Hawaii. Adjust accordingly, but most importantly, sooner than later.

Only four tournaments of the regular season remain. At the conclusion of the Wyndham Championship on Aug. 6, the top 70 in the FedExCup will qualify for the three-event Playoffs. For the first time, all three will be no-cut contests, so gamers who have been patient in deftly end-loading for quadruple bonus points are about to be rewarded.

Because The Open is the last tournament kicking back more than the usual 50 bonus points for a win, there might be an attraction to burn starts for projected contenders. That’s fine, but do your best to resist those near the top of the FedExCup standings, for they will be insurance policies for pacers and slingshots for chasers in the Playoffs.

As I noted in my comment in Expert Picks, a victory at Royal Liverpool Golf Club will be worth 60 FedExCup bonus points in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, while a three-way T3 in any of the Playoffs events would yield 58 bonus points. While not every stud will be standing on podiums during the final series of the season, the mere fact that the odds are in your favor to go after those points in the last three weeks – with multiple golfers converting without winning – demands that you continue to respect the potential.

I’m opening The Open with my pick to win, Rory McIlroy, on my bench. Despite my experience, my position atop the little league and what I espouse as the site expert, I state honestly that I don’t know what I’m going to do. It’s part of the magic of the format. With the interdependency of how others on my roster will play and how my opponents will fare over the first two rounds, the plan is to let the moment come to me.

Scoring shouldn’t be wild, but if McIlroy is, say, the only of my six to make the cut, then I’ll review the impact of the other teams’ charges and determine if it’d be worth burning a start in R3 and R4. If it sets up as a push, then I might absorb zeroes (because that’s a benefit of the cushion of a front-runner). And none of that speaks to McIlroy’s position on the leaderboard. Wait and see.

In the Golfbet Insider that opened Segment 4, I encouraged gamers to consider monitoring and measuring the starts burned by your nearest threats or targets. In full disclosure, I held off until this week in building mine, so I shared it on Twitter. It’s a visual of Mike Glasscott's’ full usage in Segment 4 sorted by total starts and alphabetically.

With a glance, I know that he’s down one each on Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler, both of whom I’m planning to play in every round of the Playoffs. Because of his position of pursuit, I can’t fault him for trying to narrow the gap with those guys, but it didn’t pay dividends, so that’s fortified my position as each targets the season-ending trophy. This strategy worked to perfection two years ago when Ben Everill had one less start for Rahm, who ultimately made a difference for me in the same situation.

Another one of my should-be award-nominated graphics on Twitter is the Rookie Ranking. It’s a thread that dates back to the beginning of the season, so you can scroll through for every update. I mention it because the Rookie of the Year for 2022-23 will be determined at the conclusion of the FedExCup Fall and not the TOUR Championship as has been customary in the wraparound era. So, it’s possible that, for the first time, whoever is the last rookie standing in the Playoffs won’t turn out to be the ROY. With seven additional tournaments contributing to the consideration of the eligible members voting, it remains to be seen if the probable ROY will be as predictable as history has proven.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Collin Morikawa (+115 = Top 20) … After winning in his Open debut in 2021 – which remains his most recent PGA TOUR victory – he missed the cut at St. Andrews last year, but it was a shootout and, well, it is The Open where the vagaries nibble. Now, there’s just too much positive energy surrounding the guy, even as many of the nearest objects in his rearview mirror are pileups. However, he’s rested after the bounce of a T2 in Detroit. Sits fourth on TOUR in fairways hit, greens in regulation and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, or pretty much exactly where you’d expect him to slot. His confidence to thread needles all week is worth your faith, so that he’s yields plus value for this finish is a coup.

Odds were sourced on Wednesday, July 19, at 6:45 a.m. ET. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

ALSO STARRING

NOTE: These are notables who are not included in my Power Rankings or Sleepers. Connect with me on Twitter if you want analysis, insight and opinion for anyone else.

Justin Thomas (+188 = Miss the Cut) … Although he cashed for a T60 at the Genesis Scottish Open, the cut made arguably was the most impressive component of his performance. Perhaps it manifests into something special because you never know if he “found something,” but the results overall of his last several starts have generated virtually zero reason to hold one’s breath. I promised that he’d appear in this column, but there isn’t another prop worth considering.

Matt Fitzpatrick (-150 = Top 40) … Meh. Three straight top 30s in The Open, but he’s more tease than tiger in 2023. I’m fine in forgetting about his injured neck, but I’m still curious if it’s had a residual impact on his swing. He admitted losing length, but he had just added distance, so that could just be a reset in terms of familiar yardages. In any event, the default is a major champion with enough experience, strong recent form and permanent class to make the cut. The personal bonus is competing in the same major with his brother, Alex, for the first time. Speaking of which, it’d been cool if BetMGM offered some kind of “stroke spread” solely for brothers Fitzpatrick and Højgaard.

Matthew Jordan (+188 = Top 40) … The 27-year-old is a non-winner in four seasons on the DP World Tour and he’s among the Final Qualifiers for this second consecutive appearance, but he belongs on your card because Royal Liverpool is his home course.

TAP-INS

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

PARLAY: Scottie Scheffler & Cameron Smith (+333 = Both Top 10)
PARLAY: Thorbjørn Olesen & Victor Perez (+950 = Both Top 40)
Jason Day (+150 = Miss the Cut)
Ewen Ferguson (+200 = Top 40)
Zach Johnson (+400 = Top 40)
Robert MacIntyre (+130 = Top Scot)

RETURNING TO COMPETITION – The Open Championship

Seamus Power (+188 = Top 40) … It wasn’t specified which hip was bothering him enough to walk off The Renaissance Club during his first round, but all his rhetoric in its wake has been positive and hopeful enough to warrant this reach. He knows that he hasn’t been performing up to snuff but he just logged a T13 at the Deere, so consider multiplying the units for this finish.

RETURNING TO COMPETITION – Barracuda Championship

S.Y. Noh … Forced to call it quits during his first round of the Barbasol Championship with a sore back. It promptly ended his consecutive cuts-made streak at eight. He’s been navigating the season on Past Champion status and he’s cashed 13 times, but he’s still just 159th in the FedExCup.

Nicholas Lindheim … More specifically, the 38-year-old is returning to the PGA TOUR. He’s fully exempt as a Korn Ferry Tour graduate, but he’s just 0-for-2 on the season because he missed significant time due to herniated and bulging discs in his back. He then maximized the rehab opportunities on the KFT by going 5-for-5 with a pair of T8s, a solo third and, bang, a victory on Sunday at The Ascendant presented by Blue. This is his first look at Old Greenwood but it doesn’t matter. If you’re in a full-season league and looking for something – anything – on the thin pile of free agents, do not hesitate. He also presents wonderfully in a keeper league because he’s poised to be busy on the PGA TOUR in 2024. He’s not only qualified for a medical extension but he’s currently eighth in KFT points, so he’s all but set to have the chance to play his way out of the new reshuffle category via the medical come January. And that’s if he doesn’t go out and pull a Paul Stankowski and win on both tours in consecutive weeks.

NOTABLE WDs – The Open Championship

Tiger Woods … Remains out indefinitely. The three-time Open champion is automatically eligible to compete in the major through his age-60 season of 2036.

Will Zalatoris … Now in his fourth month of recovery post-microdiscectomy. Shared with followers on Instagram on July 8 that he was scheduled to start chipping soon.

Mike Hendry … The 43-year-old Kiwi is the only other non-commit who isn’t a previous champion of The Open. He qualified for his third appearance via the Open Qualifying Series with a solo second in Hong Kong in late March. In mid-May, he announced on Instagram that he had been diagnosed with leukemia. A couple of weeks later, he updated that he’s in complete remission after one session of chemotherapy and hopes to return to playing by the end of the year.

NOTABLE WDs – Barracuda Championship

Joseph Bramlett … Rest over stress, at least for one week. Extended his skid to 0-for-4 in Scotland and sits 84th in the FedExCup. He cashed in all three tries at Old Greenwood, the first two of which for a top 20, but he’s settling for the break ahead of the last two tournaments to determine the field for the Playoffs.

Nate Lashley … The 40-year-old cult favorite in our world hasn’t disappointed this season, but he’s 88th in the FedExCup, so he’d need a strong performance (or two) in the next two weeks to qualify for his third Playoffs. Regardless, continue to rely on him in doses when he retains commitments.

Callum Tarren … He’s 93rd in the FedExCup and the points earned with his share of a three-way T2 at Sea Island still are worth just shy of his season total, so he’s fallen short of the promise that the close call suggested, but the 32-year-old is in a strong spot to return with fully exempt status for a third consecutive season in 2024.

Dylan Wu … Had been on the road for six consecutive weeks until this decision. Sits 101st in the FedExCup, so he’s maximized his opportunity after finishing 150th in Eligibility Points last season. (He was 168th before the adjustments.)

Tyler Duncan … First break in five weeks. He’s 110th in the FedExCup, so he seems content with riding the FedExCup Fall to his card in 2024. Fantasy usage remains limited to the deepest of full-season formats and as a final call in salary games.

Jimmy Walker … Went just 1-for-4 with a T42 (John Deere Classic) after taking a month off. Currently 120th in the FedExCup, so he’s still in good position in the long game.

Hank Lebioda … Just 6-for-18 on conditional status this season and 194th in the FedExCup.

RECAP – Genesis Scottish Open

POWER RANKINGS
Power Ranking Golfer = Result
1 Patrick Cantlay = MC
2 Scottie Scheffler = T3
3 Tommy Fleetwood = T6
4 Xander Schauffele = T42
5 Tyrrell Hatton = T6
6 Viktor Hovland = T25
7 Matt Fitzpatrick = MC
8 Rickie Fowler = T42
9 Rory McIlroy = Win
10 Wyndham Clark = T25
11 Min Woo Lee = T35
12 Rasmus Højgaard = MC
13 Aaron Rai = MC
14 Justin Rose = MC
15 Shane Lowry = T12

* - For the recommendations below, an asterisk represents a bet that won.

SLEEPERS
Golfer (recommended bet) = Result
*Ewen Ferguson (+200 = Top 40) = T12
Gavin Kyle Green (+333 = Top 40) = T68
Romain Langasque (+550 = Top 20) = T25
Adrian Otaegui (+200 = Top 40) = MC
Marcel Siem (+240 + Top 40) = T42

GOLFBET INSIDER
Team (recommended bet) = Result
Wild Card: Jordan Spieth (+100 = Top 20) = MC
*Also Starring: Max Homa (+160 = Top 20) = T12
Also Starring: Justin Thomas (+160 = Miss the Cut) = T60
Also Starring: Kurt Kitayama (+320 = Top 20) = T54
*Tap-in: Ryan Fox (+100 = Top 40) = T12
Tap-in: Daniel Hillier (+225 = Top 40) = T54
Tap-in: Joost Luiten (+175 = Top 40) = T54
*Tap-in: Robert MacIntyre (+275 = Top Scot) = 2nd
Tap-in: Adrian Meronk (+260 = Top 20) = MC
*Tap-in: Thorbjørn Olesen (+175 = Top 40) = T25
Tap-in: Adrian Otaegui (+240 = Top Spanish) = MC
Tap-in: Adam Scott (+200 = Top 20) = MC
Tap-in: Marcel Siem (+400 = Top German) = T42 (T25 = Yannik Paul; Marcel Schneider)
Tap-in: Sami Välimäki (+300 = Top 40) = 76th

RECAP – Barbasol Championship

POWER RANKINGS
Power Ranking Golfer = Result
1 Lucas Glover = 5th
2 Taylor Pendrith = 6th
3 Grayson Murray = T7
4 Josh Teater = MC
5 Peter Kuest = MC
6 Ryo Hisatsune = T58
7 Justin Lower = T44
8 Marcus Helligkilde = MC
9 Kevin Streelman = MC
10 Andy Sullivan = MC

OTHERS TO CONSIDER
Golfer = Result
MJ Daffue = T16
Julien Guerrier = MC
Jim Herman = MC
Satoshi Kodaira = MC

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