Opportunity knocks for players and bettors alike at The Honda Classic

Survive and thrive.

The Honda Classic brings with it a demand for respect from those who dare take on the Champion Course at PGA National.

Not only does the infamous “Bear Trap” across Nos. 15-17 await the players involved, but 15 of the 18 holes have penalty areas filled with water and as Jason Day once told me… “you can’t recover from the water.”

We cannot escape the fact this week is sandwiched between a fortnight of designated events on either side and as such sees some of the biggest names on the PGA TOUR absent. But those looking at this in a negative light are missing the forest through the trees.

This is the perfect week for someone to make a name for themselves on the PGA TOUR be it a multiple time winner chasing former glories (read the likes of Jhonattan Vegas and Matt Kuchar) or someone chasing their first TOUR win (Denny McCarthy and Hayden Buckley come to mind) or perhaps an international star looking to prove his U.S. bona fide’s (Min Woo Lee or Adrian Meronk fit the template).

In other words, it is a week of opportunity.

And as it is for the players, it is also an opportunity week for your gaming and fantasy selections. Over the last 10 years more players have won starting at triple digit odds than those inside 75/1. Yes, Sungjae Im, Justin Thomas and Adam Scott are among recent former champs. But so too are Michael Thompson, an aging Padraig Harrington and defending champ Sepp Straka who cashed at 300/1, 250/1 and 125/1 respectively.

So perhaps the play early week is not to jump on the those up top of the betting boards, but instead to search for the smaller unit plays at higher paydays. And then, be prepared to jump into the fray during the week as play progresses… but more on that later.

Im is +850 with BetMGM sportsbook at the top of the betting list and deservedly so. He has won here, his skill set of accuracy is perfect for the course, and he’s the highest ranked player in the field and leads Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings.

Former Open champion and nearby resident Shane Lowry also deserves second billing at +1600, especially after flashes of his best at the Genesis Invitational (T14) last week.

But both players will have legitimate goals of becoming a PLAYERS champion in a few weeks’ time and will also believe they can take out the prestigious Arnold Palmer Invitational next week.

The razor-thin wire of talent dispersion on the PGA TOUR means just a minor drop in intensity can create a major drop in results. While I am not suggesting Im or Lowry or any other top line players in the field won’t give their best, they may throttle back their preparations to recoup some energy stores. Im was heavily favored to do well a year ago as well and missed the cut. Don’t be surprised if it plays out as a chalk wrecker.

Hence, we once again should think about looking further down the boards to get a diamond in the rough so to speak.

Your starting spot should be the Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green stats for this season and last. Here is how recent champions ranked in the metric for their week at PGA National.

2015: Padraig Harrington (2nd)

2016: Adam Scott (3rd)

2017: Rickie Fowler (11th)

2018: Justin Thomas (1st)

2019: Keith Mitchell (1st)

2020: Sungjae Im (1st)

2021: Matt Jones (1st)

2022: Sepp Straka (4th)

In the years the winner didn’t rank first, those who did were runner-up twice, and never outside the top 11. You have to keep the ball in play. It’s not rocket science.

With that in mind we see Vegas (+3300) is ranked fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green this season, the highest of any player in this field. The three-time TOUR winner has ranked 39th, 31st, 53rd and 27th over the previous seasons also.

Im ranks next best of those in the field, at 18th this season having been ninth last season with the only others currently inside the TOUR top 30 and also suiting up at PGA National are Joseph Bramlett +5000 (24th), Matt Kuchar +2500 (26th), Sean O’Hair +25000 (28th) and Satoshi Kodaira +20000 (29th).

Chris Kirk +2500 (20th), Lowry (22nd), Aaron Wise +2200 (25th), Taylor Pendrith +3500 (36th) and Billy Horschel +2800 (40th) join Im as players inside the top 40 on TOUR last season Tee-to-Green. Only Pendrith and Horschel are struggling to maintain high standards so far this season.

Now I’ll throw one more inside golf stat at you to consider. Approach accuracy from 175-200 yards. The fact is the amount of approach shots needed from this distance over the last eight seasons at The Honda Classic is well above the TOUR average.

Nine players in the field currently rank in the top 20 on TOUR in accuracy from this distance from the fairway in terms of average proximity. Chris Stroud (1st), Kodaira (2nd), Cameron Percy (7th), Kyle Westmoreland (8th), Brice Garnett (9th), Callum Tarren (11th), Augusto Nunez (14th), Cam Davis (14th) and Jonathan Byrd (19th). But it is one thing to hit it closer than others, it’s another thing to convert.

Relative to par, Im leads those in the field from 175-200 yards this season being 11-under. Nunez is 8-under, Garnett and Tarren 7-under and Stroud and Davis at 6-under. Be careful of Percy and Kodaira who are 3-over from the distance despite their accuracy.

If you’re still with me now let’s talk about live action. It’s a perfect week to hold your fire, wait and see the opening round or two play out, and then make your move. Using our same key stats, you can peruse who is showing promise in the metrics as it happens and find yourself an educated choice. As always, Golfbet will help you in your cause. Make sure you come and check out Draws & Fades after each round.

Good luck.

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