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Stats Report
  • STAT BROTHERS

    Cut Prediction: Masters Tournament

  • (David Cannon/Getty Images)(David Cannon/Getty Images)

2022 Masters Tournament, Round 1

Scoring Conditions:

Overall: +1.83 strokes per round
Morning wave: +2.22
Afternoon wave: +1.43

Current cutline (top 50 and ties):

59 players at +2 or better (T43)

Top 3 projected cutline probabilities:

1. 3 over par: 35.9%
2. 4 over par: 34.7%
3. 2 over par: 13.5%

Top 10 win probabilities:

1. Cameron Smith (2, -4, 14.2%)
2. Sungjae Im (1, -5, 11.6%)
3. Scottie Scheffler (T3, -3, 11.6%)
4. Dustin Johnson (T3, -3, 8.6%)
5. Patrick Cantlay (T7, -2, 8.1%)
6. Joaquin Niemann (T3, -3, 5.9%)
7. Matthew Fitzpatrick (T10, -1, 3.1%)
8. Corey Conners (T7, -2, 2.8%)
9. Will Zalatoris (T10, -1, 2.7%)
10. Rory McIlroy (T31, +1, 2.6%)

NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Masters Tournament, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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By the numbers: Approach play indicative of Masters success