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Stats Report
  • Highlights

    Cut prediction: AT&T Byron Nelson

  • Highlights

    Sergio Garcia holes out from 52 yards for eagle at AT&T Byron Nelson

2021 AT&T Byron Nelson, Round 1

Scoring Conditions:

Overall: -3.25 strokes per round
Morning wave: -3.64
Afternoon wave: -2.86

Current cutline (top 65 and ties):

76 players at -4 or better (T54)

Top 3 projected cutline probabilities:

1. 7 under par: 37.5%
2. 6 under par: 32.7%
3. 8 under par: 16.3%

Top 10 win probabilities:

1. Jordan Spieth (T1, -9, 19.4%)
2. Jon Rahm (T54, -4, 7.1%)
3. Aaron Wise (T3, -8, 4.5%)
4. Scottie Scheffler (T34, -5, 4.3%)
5. Sergio Garcia (T7, -7, 4.3%)
6. Sam Burns (T7, -7, 3.8%)
7. Si Woo Kim (T19, -6, 3.7%)
8. Charles Howell III (T7, -7, 3.1%)
9. Alex Noren (T7, -7, 2.8%)
10. Joseph Bramlett (T3, -8, 2.7%)

NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the AT&T Byron Nelson, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.


Win probabilities: Wells Fargo Championship